Having a neon yellow vest in your car is mandatory in France – and President Emmanuel Macron these days has every reason to fear its use. Despite all the protests, he managed to pass his pension reform – but the political price is likely to be high.
After the very close result in the vote of no confidence, the protests intensify, which raise fears of a repetition of the violent crisis of the gilets jaunes. In the medium term, it risks being replaced by right-wing populist Marine Le Pen.
Macron, then 39, began with a promise of a new style of government. During the election campaign, he had sent his teams to listen to the population’s concerns. After the yellow vest protests in 2018/19, Macron relied on a national civil dialogue. But when it came to pension reform, he symbolically threw his fist on the table.
Legal but not legit
His recourse to Article 49.3 of the Constitution was legal but not legitimate in the eyes of many French people. President Charles de Gaulle had given himself and his successors the opportunity to avoid risky votes in Parliament. According to his critics, Macron has now fallen into exactly the upright, arrogant style he wanted to break with.
French heads of government have drawn this joker over a hundred times in the past, and only once has a government fallen for it. But in the case of pension reform – a highly symbolic law with far-reaching consequences – the 49.3 could have been the straw that broke the camel’s back for many French people. According to a poll published on Monday, two-thirds wanted the government to fall.
Macron is likely to expect the protests to subside again, no later than spring break starting in April. But even if he was spared a second wave of yellow vest protests, his political reputation would be seriously damaged. In any case, the financial agency Moody’s confirmed that its ability to promote further reforms was clearly weakened.
In the months-long pension dispute, the populist left-wing opposition in particular drew attention to itself with its 13,000 amendments and the national anthem sung like a protest song. Right-wing populist Le Pen, on the other hand, was unusually silent.
She is likely to continue to take a serious look at her Rassemblement National (RN) party, and then get even more votes from the underdogs in the upcoming election. Voters swinging between right-wing and left-wing populists are no longer the exception. And now that conservative Republicans have helped the government pass the controversial reform, the RN could get some votes there too.
Address to the French
Unlike Macron, Le Pen could run again in 2027, which would be his fourth attempt to move to the Élysée Palace. Macron has so far failed to establish a possible successor. Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire and Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin are said to have ambitions – but the taint of the pension reform that has now passed also hangs over them.
Even if the government did not fall, Macron could soon replace his prime minister Elisabeth Borne, whom he had left for weeks to explain and defend reform. The President prevailed, but it looks a lot like a Pyrrhic victory. Macron seems increasingly lonely in his office, whose abundance of power also harbors the temptation to abuse it.
“The government played matches at a gas station, now they have to face the consequences,” Le Pen said.
In any case, Emmanuel Macron wants to try to bridge the deep gap that has been created with the population with a speech to the French today, Wednesday. He will talk about his future plans. It remains to be seen whether he will really be able to calm the angry crowd. (afp)