Guide to the 2023 NFL MVP: Lamar Jackson and the contender (almost) no one is talking about – The Athletic

Cover 7 | Thursday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football's biggest stories. Every Thursday, Mike Sando examines a new story involving NFL quarterbacking.

There's a reason the NFL MVP odds are constantly changing. It was a bad season for quarterbacks as players at other positions failed to maintain their record speeds. There was no clear favorite, which makes the final two weeks of the season even more important.

Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen alternated as favorites in the first five weeks.

Mahomes took the lead until Jalen Hurts eclipsed him in Week 12.

Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott took over in Week 14. A week later, Prescott prevailed. A week later, Purdy retook the lead and then imploded with four interceptions during a stunning Christmas Night loss to Lamar Jackson's Baltimore Ravens.

Jackson is now a clear betting favorite over Christian McCaffrey heading into the final two weeks before voters cast their ballots, even if his performance doesn't come close to the standard he set in 2019 as the youngest MVP to win the award unanimously.

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This year, the lawsuits against the leading MVP candidates seem to be stronger than the lawsuits against themselves, but someone will win. Here's how I see the candidates and why Los Angeles Rams' Matthew Stafford might have an interesting case despite barely being registered on the betting markets.

The ideal MVP candidate is a quarterback (the most important position) whose record-breaking or otherwise elite performance (that is easily quantifiable) helps his team win despite weak defense/special teams with a highly rated offense.

There's no better way to demonstrate value in the NFL.

One of my first considerations when evaluating MVP candidates is evaluating how their teams win games.

For offensive players, especially quarterbacks, I divide team EPA into two areas: one area for offense, the other for defense and special teams.

From this came the QB Betrayal Index, which highlighted the uphill battle players like Drew Brees, Justin Herbert and Tony Romo faced as they tried to drive team success while components beyond their control created strong headwinds.

The table below separates the 2023 offensive EPA from the combined defensive/special teams EPA for nine teams with MVP candidates. Teams are sorted from strongest to least offensive EPA. Hovering over or clicking on the bars will display the names of the candidates.

Mahomes may be the best player in the game, but the Chiefs' offense, with a minus-7.5 EPA this season, is making it harder to win overall, a shocking reversal from previous form. Compared to 2022, Kansas City has lost 11.1 EPA per game on offense through the first 15 games, the second-largest decline behind the New York Giants (13.3).

The MVP is not the “Look, I know we're okay, but without this player we'd be a lot worse” award. A quarterback shouldn't win MVP unless his efforts result in a certain level of performance. That's difficult this season as only nine offenses produce a positive EPA. In fact, the Seattle Seahawks are currently in 10th place, one spot ahead of Kansas City. Does anyone think Seattle has a top-10 offense? NO! But in the current environment they do.

Here too, Jackson's Ravens stand out. They were good on offense, ranking eighth in EPA per play. Jackson has successfully transitioned to a new offensive style. He is arguably the most important player on the best team in the NFL. He should be given credit for continuing to perform after losing several running backs and All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews, his No. 1 target, to injury.

It's simply impossible to look at the table or games above and conclude that the Ravens are winning primarily because of their offense. Jackson, with his 3,357 passing yards and 786 rushing yards, is a big piece of a smaller offensive pie.

What would the Ravens look like without him?

With their elite defense, they could look like the Cleveland Browns, who went through four starting quarterbacks without getting even an average performance from any of them.

Like the Ravens, the Browns brought the 49ers' offense to its knees. The Browns had to pull off a narrow win over San Francisco because they didn't have a quality quarterback like Jackson to lead their offense. The Browns are 10-5 despite ranking 28th in offensive EPA per game because their defense is No. 1 by a wide margin (the Ravens are second).

Baltimore's 33-19 win over the 49ers was eye-opening. Early in the game, Jackson missed throws that kept the drive going and took a safety when a game official accidentally tripped him. That might have been disastrous for most teams playing the 49ers on the road, but Baltimore's defense prevented San Francisco from gaining a big lead. The 49ers had 12 points through three quarters. This allowed Jackson and the offense to bide their time without getting into passing situations, creating a stress-free environment for the offense.

As the game progressed, Jackson made special plays to help Baltimore get a big win. When the game ended, the Ravens' defense (plus-10.1 EPA) and special teams (plus-0.8) accounted for about 11 of the 14 points separating the teams on the scoreboard. It was a great team win.

Below we see Jackson's performance over 15 games in his MVP season in 2019 and this season. He and the offense were much more responsible for Baltimore winning that season. Since then, offense has declined across the league, which should also be taken into account.

Jackson through 15 games: 2019 vs. 2023

If the MVP wouldn't ideally go to a great quarterback who prevents an underperforming offense from getting any worse (Mahomes), or to the good quarterback whose team wins primarily on defense (Jackson), it shouldn't automatically go to the The team's quarterback also goes with the most productive offense.

Purdy's candidacy was always going to be problematic because of the 49ers' scheme and armament doing an outsized job. Kyle Shanahan's seven-year tenure as 49ers coach makes this clear.

From Shanahan's hiring in 2017 through last season, Mahomes and Drew Brees ranked 1-2 in EPA per pass play. Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers finished 4th-5th.

The fact that Purdy's predecessor, Jimmy Garoppolo, finished third underscores the value added to the team and the program. Purdy was better than Garoppolo, but he would have needed a near-perfect season to win MVP. That's the kind of season Purdy was enjoying until Monday. What happened against Baltimore might have destroyed his candidacy.

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Tagovailoa's candidacy is somewhat similar in that his team's scheme and armament take an inordinate amount of credit for his performance, whether warranted or not. He ranks second behind Purdy in EPA per pass play.

That makes Stafford an interesting candidate if his Rams perform strongly and make the playoffs (a certain level of team success should be required of the winner, barring a historic season and extenuating circumstances).

Los Angeles' low-budget defense is exceeding expectations, ranking 20th in EPA per game, but the Rams' special teams have been so poor that LA ranks 29th in combined EPA for defense and special teams. The Rams are 8-6 when Stafford starts (he missed one game) and rank sixth in EPA per game on offense, despite a disastrous performance in Green Bay in the one game Stafford missed (they would be on would be in fourth place if we were to exclude this performance).

The Rams took the Ravens to overtime in Baltimore, with Stafford rushing for 294 yards and three touchdowns. Against Baltimore, the Rams gained more than 15 yards on 30 percent of their passes, even though that many yards were possible. No other Ravens opponent has even reached 20 percent.

What would the Rams look like without Stafford? We saw what they looked like without him in a 20-3 loss at Green Bay: three points, 10 first downs, 187 yards.

It wasn't Vince Lombardi's Packers on defense either.

Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins, Bryce Young and Tommy DeVito posted season highs for EPA per pass against Green Bay. Russell Wilson, who is now sitting on the bench, achieved his second-best mark of the season against the Packers. Mayfield became the first visiting player in Lambeau Field's 417-game history to post the highest possible passer rating (158.3).

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But when the Rams visited Lambeau without Stafford, backup Brett Rypien completed 13 of 28 passes for 130 yards and an interception and a lost fumble. His passer rating of 45.2 was 30 points lower than the rating of all other Packers opponents this season.

Meanwhile, in games against Cleveland and Baltimore's elite defenses, Stafford rushed for 573 yards with six touchdowns, no interceptions, two sacks and a passer rating of 106.4. The Rams posted a 20.8 EPA on offense in those games, beat Cleveland 36-19, and lost to Baltimore when the Ravens returned a punt for a touchdown in overtime.

If Stafford finishes the season with a playoff-clinching win over the 49ers, his candidacy should come true.

Quarterbacks have won the last 10 MVP awards. McCaffrey and Miami Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill are the non-quarterbacks with the strongest cases among offensive players.

Hill's candidacy stalled after he suffered an ankle injury against Tennessee and missed a game. He's playing through the injury now and, as the chart below shows, would need 325 yards in the final two weeks to surpass Calvin Johnson's single-season record. At one point, Hill was on pace to break the record in 16 games. He had 99 yards against Dallas in Week 15.

McCaffrey doesn't have a statistical record for running backs, but he's enjoying an outstanding season. His 128.8 scrimmage yards per game average puts him within striking distance of the last four running backs to secure MVP honors. LaDainian Tomlinson (149.5 in 2006), Marshall Faulk (148.3 in 2000) and Adrian Peterson (140.9 in 2012) were even more productive.

McCaffrey vs. MVP RBs: Yards/Game & TDs

Cleveland's ability to win 10 games (and counting) with such a terrible performance on offense should bring the Browns' best defensive player, Myles Garrett, into the discussion. Lawrence Taylor was the last defensive player to win MVP in 1986. Garrett is great, but is he 1986 LT great? Should that even be the standard in a season where the defense has dominated?

The final two weeks could be crucial in shifting the MVP discussion to a single candidate.

Prescott of the Cowboys and Allen of the Bills shouldn't be overlooked.

Prescott ranks third in EPA per pass play and Allen ranks fourth. Over an eight-game stretch, Prescott had 23 touchdown passes with two interceptions, the kind of run that helped propel Cam Newton's MVP candidacy in 2015. Allen carried the Bills as the team struggled to win consistently; The team has been so good to him lately that Allen joked after the win over Dallas that he felt “like the kid who didn't do anything on the class project but still got an A” for his work.

The graphic below shows the passing and rushing EPA ratings by game for Prescott, Allen and the other leading quarterback MVP candidates. We also see averages for a compilation of the last 10 actual MVPs, all quarterbacks. Team dynamics affect EPA differently for different quarterbacks, but it's still useful to see overall production.

Jackson has a chance to solidify his status as the favorite by finishing games against the Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers. Oddsmakers expect him to lose the award, but perceptions have quickly changed in this unusual season for quarterbacks.

(Photo by Lamar Jackson: Loren Elliott / Getty Images)

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