Brazil is in a phase of Chinese growth. In other words, the pace of population growth has been similar in both countries over the past 12 years, at around 6%. As you know, China had a very strict contraceptive policy. Is the Brazilian population growing a little? Little by what criteria?
Before proceeding, consider that the growth rate calculated in the 2022 census was a surprise. The counted population is around 203 million, 11 million less than IBGE’s Pnad forecasts or estimates. According to these reports, the population grew by about 0.8% annually; according to the census to just over 0.5%.
The difference has sparked some outrage among those still uninformed, as census details are missing to reflect on what happened. It may well be that the calibration of the IBGE surveys was somewhat skewed, given the lack of a middecade census, for which there was no money.
A central state institution is abolished. The federal government spends R$2 trillion a year, but IBGE is lacking (we’re not talking about the current government). It’s shameful and stupid.
However, it is better to believe the census than estimates.
Is Brazil’s population growing only slightly? International comparison is difficult. For example, consider 10year growth from 2009 to 2021 or 2007 to 2019, as reported by World Bank databases.
In Europe, there is the group of countries with low and declining growth, less than 2% over the period, such as B. Germany, Italy, which tend towards zero, or Portugal and Greece, which are negative. In France, on the other hand, the population grew by almost 5%. In the UK it is just under 9%. In happy Denmark and Holland it is around 6%. Almost 7.5% in the OECD countries.
The US population grew by 9%. About 15% in Mexico and Chile.
These dates are to be enjoyed with caution and sedatives. These are estimates that were made in part during the course of the epidemic. They can also show deviations. Nevertheless, one can see the demographic inequality between similar countries in socioeconomic terms. Migration and economic crises help to understand the differences, at least in part.
One problem with low population growth in a middleincome (and declining) economy like Brazil’s is premature ageing. Soon we may have few working people relative to the number of dependents (roughly speaking, the sum of children and pensioners).
It was already foreseeable that Brazil would need policies to attract immigrants given the shortage of skilled workers as the country grew. Now it has to become a critical issue.
What caused this slowdown in Brazilian growth? We don’t even know, to begin with, how the population was divided by age group.
Did the economic meltdown of the 2010s and the epidemic lower the numbers? If calculated over decades, Brazil is experiencing worse collapses than in the 1990s. In this crisis, would a generation have lost hope in the land and/or in children?
What cultural or social changes were there in the family? In the attitude of women? Could greater emigration than immigration have had any effect? It would be small compared to the country’s history.
The biggest fact is that we hardly know each other. The census figures could even change our understanding of the work universe and the movements of the Brazilian economy. For example, what percentage of them have a job or are looking for a job?
The number of inhabitants per household fell sharply from one decade to the next (3.3 to 2.7). What does that say about housing, cities, family, social programs? How many children will need school and teachers?
We don’t actually know anything about that.