The annual cost of living adjustment (COLA) in the United States could fall through 2024 as the inflation rate falls.
Such a simple analysis has already been carried out by social security recipients. The payment set for the next year depends on this and other parameters.
The Senior Citizens League estimates COLA to be 3% for this period based on last June’s inflation data. Precisely for the sixth month of 2023, the group forecast an increase of 2.7%, slightly less than the most recent forecast.
If we talk about projections, the Committee on Good Federal Budgeting has also issued its own. Their analyzes show that the COLA would rise between 2.6% and 3.3% over the next year. Its experts make it clear that it would only reach this estimated maximum if recent inflation trends continue.
COLA beats year-over-year increases
The COLA of 8.7% actually exceeds the annual increases in the CPI-W. This has been happening every month since the start of the rise in January 2023. Analysis for June shows CPI-W is up 2.3% over the past 12 months.
The increase is also visible in Social Security benefits, which averaged $140.00 per month. This juicy new revenue benefited nearly 70 million people who receive Social Security and supplemental insurance income.
Notwithstanding all of this previous analysis, the deadline for announcing next year’s COLA is the upcoming month of October.
To calculate the annual COLA, the Social Security Administration uses data from various indices. Including the consumer price for city wage earners and clerks, known as CPI-W.
The COLA is based on the percentage change in CPI-W from the third quarter of last year to the third quarter of 2023. If no increase is expressed, then there is no COLA.