Although it has recently become the main theater of war between Kyiv and Moscow, the “noise” of missiles in Donbass seems to have decreased sharply recently. This, according to the observations of NASA’s firefighting satellites aimed at Ukraine. It is now known that the Russian battalions held back their advance into eastern Ukraine. This despite the “conquest” of the twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk at the beginning of July, which brought Moscow various losses in terms of arsenal and troops, despite constant denials.
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NASA FIRMS data from July 15-23 shows consistently fewer fires along the entire Donbass frontline, strongly suggesting this #HIMARS have a lasting impact on the capabilities of Russian artillery. /2https://t.co/bhkICZ8712 pic.twitter.com/bBCtj506XM
– ISW (@TheStudyofWar) July 23, 2022
It is not yet known whether less intense warfare in the Donbass will mean even less need for artillery. Instead, a southward shift of the Ukrainian army is more likely, which, taking advantage of the weakening of Russian troops, could attempt a large-scale operation to recapture the areas from Mykolaiv to Kherson.
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The arrival in Ukraine of the first Himars, sophisticated mobile multiple rocket launchers supplied by the Americans, undoubtedly changed the games on the military chessboard. While that doesn’t mean Moscow will withdraw its troops in a few weeks, the slap in the back to Ukraine’s army after the arrival of the new Stars and Stripes arsenal is undeniable. Washington promised a total of 18, With the four new ones announced on Friday, we’re up to a total of 16 Himars for now. Kyiv wants at least three times that number, perhaps with longer-range ammunition such as long-range ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles capable of hitting targets 300 km away. Biden, for now, is taking his time encouraging an escalation by arming Kyiv with weapons capable of hitting Russian territory is not an idea that seems too convincing to him. Three other similar systems were promised by London and Berlin.
“With these weapons we destroyed Russian ammunition depots. And the results were immediately visible. Russian bombings are 10 times less than before ». This was stated by Bohdan Dmytruk, a battalion commander of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Army. “The Russians will be forced to move the deposits on their territory, away from the range of the Himars, which have a range of 80 km.” In addition to being accurate at hitting targets, Himars can be moved very easily, making them difficult to spot. Ukrainians say the Russians have failed to destroy even one, despite Moscow’s claims to the contrary. “For an effective counter-offensive you need at least 100 and longer range ammo” said Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, speaking about the Himars in a video link with the Atlantic Council. The US remains cautious for now.
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