Not long ago, Iowa was anything but a pro-Trump state. Good people from the Midwest, polite and politically moderate. Sober pious people who valued respect for traditional values and fear of God. What exactly happened to them?
• Also read: Two of Trump's Republican rivals face each other shortly before the start of the primaries
The first meeting of this big election year in the United States will take place on Monday in Iowa. Republican Party factions will decide between candidates who can continue to dream of the White House and those who should understand that this will not be their year.
This cycle offers no surprises: Donald Trump will win the state not only because he is more than 36 points ahead of his closest rivals in the average poll, but also because the Republican electorate's interest in him has taken on the appearance of a cult.
The tension, if any, lies in who will finish in second place: Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, who would prove that her campaign is actually successful, or Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, who would lying to those who have lost hope in a campaign that began with so much confidence.
AN ISLAND OF REAL ESTATE
It's an anomaly that Iowa is the first state to sort candidates for the presidential race. An anomaly from the start: Because more time was needed to print election materials in the late 1960s and early 1970s, state caucuses were held before other states could weigh in. It stayed.
Another anomaly, Iowa bears little resemblance to the demographic makeup of the United States. While whites make up 59% of the U.S. population, they make up 84% of the state's residents.
The statewide black population of 13.6% fell to 4.4% in Iowa; The same is true for Latinos, who make up 19% of the country's population but only 7% of Iowa's population.
TRUMP, THE ULTIMATE ANOMALY
Iowa voters — polite, calm and sensible — have fallen under the spell of Donald Trump, the most disrespectful politician of his generation. More than one in two Republican voters prefer Donald Trump to any other candidate in the race for the party's nomination.
If the character doesn't seem to fit, the demographic reality fits better. A recent Wall Street Journal poll shows Trump as the top choice of rural voters at 71%, well above the support and still majority he receives among all Republican voters.
This rural America — particularly Iowa — has a higher concentration of white voters without college degrees, a group that drew Trump toward the Republican Party when he ran for president in 2016. We're also aging faster in the Iowa caucuses, and Donald Trump is consistently doing better than his opponents are Americans ages 65 and older.
He faces 91 criminal charges against him, insults judges with whom he disagrees, and humiliates his opponents by exploiting their weaknesses or, in some cases, even their disabilities. And yet Iowa Republicans are preparing to crown him. To hell with modesty!
IOWA, VOTERS WHOSE HEARTS HAVE BEEN BEATING FOR 25 YEARS
2000
- Al Gore – Democrat 48.54%
- George W. Bush – Republican 48.22%
2004
- George W. Bush – Republican 49.9%
- John Kerry – Democrat 49.23%
2008
- Barack Obama – Democrat 53.93%
- John McCain – Republican 44.39%
2012
- Barack Obama – Democrat 51.99%
- Mitt Romney – Republican 46.18%
2016
- Donald Trump – Republican 51.15%
- Hillary Clinton – Democrat 41.74%
2020
- Donald Trump – Republican 53.09%
- Joe Biden – Democrat 44.89%