A blanket off ambiguity is run through by a wafer-thin thread that seems to be able to hold the Russian war together Ukrainethe almost dormant agreement nuclear Iranianthe New Beginning – last pillar of the contracts on the control of armor – and the related relationships between Russia and United States. And again the permanent conflict of low (but growing) intensity between them Iran and American allies middle Eastparticularly Israelbut also the relationships of Tehran with some European and Asian countries. Apparently separate dossiers that seem to have almost grown together in the past few weeks imperceptiblyrekindle the risk of polarization on the to plan globaland the return to the present of unpredictable scenarios. The last ten days are particularly difficult to assess.
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The drone attack and the suspicion of Israel – Last Saturday the Ministry of Iranian defense said it thwarted a series of drone strikes on military installations in the province Isfahannear which a number of have been heard explosionsalmost simultaneously with a serious fire that broke out in a refinery display Azarshahrin the north of the country.
Three days after the events, little or nothing seems clear. First, a source “familiar with the operation” reported Barak Ravidwell-known Israeli journalist from Axios that the concerted action of the drones “targetedsurgical and succeded, able to hit four different areas of the plant and achieve the set targets”. Statements that, on the one hand, contradict what the Foreign Minister immediately stated Amir Abdollahianwho spoke of a “cowardly attack with minimal damage”, and the military analyst of the government agency Irna, Mohammed Schaltouki, who announced that the plant, after having been attacked in the past, recently underwent a restructuring aimed at strengthening its roof and installing special air defense systems against small drones; on the other hand, they obviously made us believe immediately Israel responsible.
A hypothesis confirmed by a number of American officials interviewed by the New York Times, and also reinforced by the fact that since January 23 United States and Israel began conducting Juniper Oak 23.2, the largest joint military exercise ever conducted between the two countries and involving B-52, F-35, F-15, F-18, 12 warships, about 6400 American and 1100 American soldiers were involved Israeli Defense Forces.
As you know, this wouldn’t be the first time Tel Aviv conducts military operations on Iranian territory: in 2010, the university’s particle physicists had two bombs installed on their vehicles Tehran, Masoud Alimohammadiand the nuclear physicist of the Atomic Energy Agency of Iran, Majid Shahriari; In 2011 it was the turn of the 35-year-old nuclear scientist Dariush Rezaeinejadin the following year a Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan and in 2020 J Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
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The route of other countries involved – Still, some Saudi media such as Al Arabiya and Al Hadath initially ruled out Israeli involvement, speaking of “the United States and another country, but not Israel‘, and anyway the point is that this time it seems like more, and it doesn’t seem like something small.
In fact, the day after the attack, the Ukrainian chargé d’affaires Iran was summoned to the Foreign Office Tehran after some cryptic comments by Kyiv from the Presidential Advisor Michael Podoliakwho told what had happened to him Iran with the war inside Ukraine. “The logic of war is unrelenting and murderous. He strictly presents the perpetrators and his accomplices with the bill. Panic in Russian Federation: endless mobilization, missile defense, etc Fly, trenches a thousand kilometers away, preparation of air raid shelters. Explosion night in Iran: production of drones and missiles, oil refineries. Ukraine warned you,” Podolyak wrote on Twitter.
Immediate and somewhat alarming response from Supreme National Security Council (SCSN)those via the affiliated agency Just referred to the tweet itself, believing it to be “an indirect admission that Kyiv They engage in actions against Iran, and that doesn’t just postpone theirs strategy aimed at endangering our security, but if the Ukrainian government does not distance itself from this incident, there will be serious consequences about Ukraine“.
Someone after a man attacked the embassy on January 27th from Azerbaijan to TehranHe also suspected the killing of a security officer (although the act appears to have been linked to personal reasons). Bakuat least since 2014 – but especially more recently, also given the recent opening of the Azerbaijani embassy in Tel Aviv – relationships to Tehran they’re pretty tense since Azerbaijan has repeatedly opened its airspace to Israeli drones Iranand Tehran supports theArmenia in the last round of the conflict with him.
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The connection with the war in Ukraine – There also seems to be something else, because several observers believe that the attack on Isfahan This time it has nothing to do with it nuclear program or arms to pro-Iranian militias, but with direct support of Iran In the Russia: ballistic missiles would actually be stored on the premises Fly would expect from Tehranwhich in turn expects a number of fighter jets in exchange – while news of the signing of an interbank deal between the two countries aims to circumvent that sanctions and exclusion from the payment system fastboth of whom are victims.
Moscow and the Iranian nuclear power – If the possibility of a return to the Iran nuclear deal (Jcpoa) is currently at an all-time low, then it is due to a number of circumstances and unstable balance sheets that also call into question Fly. On the one hand, an unprecedented and never so “problematic” lack of cohesion and consensus among the Iranian authorities, none of which – the President raise at the top, who, in contrast to the head of the Bundeswehr, has also softened his posture over time Mohammed Bagheri and the former negotiator and current representative of the Guide Ali KhameneiSaeed Jalili – seems ready today to take responsibility for a clear direction, neither towards total closure, nor towards one opening.
On the other hand, because the dossier nuclear today it no longer seems to be just a concern Tehran. The foreign minister Sergey Lavrovafter conviction of the assault a IsfahanHe warned that “such destructive actions can have unpredictable consequences for the peace and stability of the Middle East,” he reiterated – he had similar tones even before the signing of the first historic agreement, which was then deliberately abandoned United States from Trump card – that “Western countries must stop playing and finally find the strength to reach a final agreement on restarting the Jcpoa“.
Words spoken in the same hours he had warned rebootthe last pillar of the contracts between Washington and Fly on the control of nuclear weapons could expire without replacement in 2026: a circumstance that is of particular relevance in view of the current situation, and not only with regard to the situation in Ukraine. What happened to Isfahan it could in some ways fuel opposite scenarios: an acceleration and strengthening of Russian-Iranian military cooperation or a (desired) slowdown.
Even Tehran really delivered the ballistic missiles Flywould constitute a violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, which bans Iran from conducting these types of operations until next October, otherwise the sanctions would be re-imposed U.N.which would be added to the direct and secondary by the United States – It is worth remembering that Iran is going through a serious economic crisis and last week the exchange rate against the dollar rose from 1:7000 to 1:450000 in ten years. This would have further ramifications, as Iran has repeatedly reiterated very clearly that if these sanctions were reinstated, it would be ready to withdraw from sanctions Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It is possible that we will come to an intermediate situation: after all, as mentioned, the restrictions on the trade in missiles apply until October 2023, and Iran could deliberately delay the delivery of these missiles Fly (in the past the same happened with reversed parts). However, much will depend on the developments of the war in Ukraineand by the many, too many, independent variables on the chessboard today.