Iran’s ally Russia may derail nuclear talks to keep oil prices high

Russia, which has largely supported Iran in its conflict with the West, said on Saturday that a deal must take into account its own national interests.

The warning came after Tehran said on Friday it had agreed a roadmap with the UN nuclear watchdog to resolve outstanding issues, suggesting talks were nearing completion.

Russia’s surprise move demonstrates how far Moscow is willing to go, using its leverage in distant conflicts to pressure the West while it wages war on Ukraine, even at the risk of antagonizing its allies in Tehran. It also shows that Russia is aware that the United States needs a nuclear deal now more than ever to replace disruptions in the supply of Russian oil to the world market.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Monday that his country “will not allow external factors” to influence their national interests in the talks.

In a telephone conversation later on Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Amir-Abdollahian that “the resuscitation of the JCPOA should ensure that all its participants have equal rights to develop cooperation in all areas without hindrance,” the Russian embassy in Iran said. , using the acronym for the 2015 nuclear deal.

France warned Russia not to resort to “blackmail”.

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The restoration of the 2015 nuclear deal between world powers and Iran could lead to the return to the market of more than a million barrels of Iranian oil under sanctions.

Russia’s warning came after the US said Sunday it was exploring a ban on Russian oil imports with its European allies in response to an invasion of Ukraine. Brent crude rose nearly $139 a barrel after the announcement, the highest since 2008.

Lavrov said Russia wanted written assurances from the United States that Moscow’s trade, investment and military-technical cooperation with Iran would not be hindered in any way by Western sanctions against Moscow.

“Both Russia and China were written into the JCPOA to handle certain elements,” said Trita Parsi, vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, DC. “It was supposed that some of the low-enriched uranium would be sent to Russia,” and some of this activity could fall under the new US sanctions against Russia, he said.

Russia’s demands may be legitimate, Parsi said, but they could also be an excuse to delay a new deal with Iran.

Western sanctions could drastically cut Russia’s oil exports, but they would push global prices even further as the US battles high inflation. This would make the need for alternative sources of crude oil more pressing for Western nations. Moscow supplies 8% of world oil.

Iran could quickly increase production to 3.8 million bpd if sanctions were lifted, Oil Minister Javad Ouji said last week. Last year it produced an average of 2.4 million barrels per day.

“This will take the pressure off the US and increase the pressure on the Russians, whose only export [to the West] at the moment it is gas and oil,” Parsi said. “It looks like the Russians at least want to delay it. At best, they may even want to flood it.”

Western states need more oil on the world market to control domestic inflation. But they also see it as a tool to make the war in Ukraine costly for Russia. Oil revenues accounted for 36% of Russia’s total budget last year, and rising oil prices have only helped fill the state treasury, fueling the war.

New Russian demands emerge as Moscow and Tehran drift apart on some global issues. Iran abstained from a UN General Assembly vote condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last week. Its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has previously refrained from justifying his ally’s actions, choosing instead to condemn NATO expansion. Iran’s abstention at the UN came after Russia voted in favor of a United Arab Emirates-backed Security Council resolution to sanction the Iranian-allied Houthi rebel group after previously abstaining from a similar vote.

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Egyptian women judges sit at the Council of State in Cairo, Egypt March 6.

On Saturday, women judges took their first seat on Egypt’s Council of State, a landmark event that has finally propelled women to the highest judicial positions in the male-dominated Arab country.

Last year, by presidential decree, 98 women were sworn in as judges on the council for the first time since its inception in 1946. The appointment went into effect on Saturday.

Egypt does not have a law barring women from holding high positions in the judiciary, but women’s applications at higher levels of the judicial ladder have been rejected for decades.

The council repeatedly rejected female candidates until last year’s decree, the state-run Al Ahram newspaper reported.

Museum Shows Women's Equality in Ancient Egypt

Egypt’s first female judge was Tahani al-Ghebali, who was appointed Vice President of the Supreme Constitutional Court in 2003. Gabali was removed from her post in 2012 under then President Mohamed Morsi. She died in January after contracting Covid-19.

As of 2018, there were over 45 million women in Egypt, nearly half of the population, according to the state statistics agency CAPMAS. The population of Egypt is over 102 million people.

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Ukraine showcased its latest defense systems at the World Defense Show on Sunday in the Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh, displaying weapons and military equipment amid the ongoing Russian invasion.

The previous version of this story misrepresented Iran’s response to Russian demands. This has been fixed.