1 of 2 China has issued a series of warnings about a possible escalation of the conflict with the West — Photo: Portal via BBC China has issued a series of warnings about a possible escalation of the conflict with the West — Photo: Portal via BBC
China has reacted with predictable fury to the official announcement of the socalled Aukus Pact, a landmark security agreement between Australia, the US and Britain designed to counter Chinese military expansion in the IndoPacific.
Details were announced Monday (13th) in San Diego, California.
As part of the pact, the Australians get their first nuclear submarine from the United States. There will be at least three. From 2027, US and British submarines will be stationed in some Australian cities.
“Taking a dangerous path,” “ignoring concerns from the international community,” and even “risking a new arms race and nuclear proliferation” are just a few of the accusations Beijing has leveled at the trio of allies.
Since US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi held her controversial visit to Taiwan last year, China has expressed such fierce disapproval of Western actions.
China, the world’s most populous nation with the world’s largest army and navy, says it’s starting to feel “cornered” by the US and its western Pacific allies.
In response, President Xi Jinping recently announced that China will accelerate its defense spending expansion, citing national security as a top concern for the coming years.
No wonder British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak spoke this week about a dangerous decade and the need to prepare for mounting security challenges.
So how did we get to this point? Is the world nearing a cataclysmic conflict in the Pacific between China and the US and its allies?
- Aukus: What is the military pact announced by the US, UK and Australia to contain China?
misunderstanding of the scenario
2 of 2 US President Joe Biden in a virtual meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in December 2021 — Photo: AFP via Getty Images US President Joe Biden in a virtual meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in December 2021 — Photo: AFP via Getty Images
The West misunderstood China. For years, foreign ministries had a naïve understanding that Chinese economic liberalization would inevitably lead to an open society and greater political freedom.
Based on this reasoning, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will surely loosen its grip on the populace as Western multinationals set up joint ventures in the country and hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens begin to enjoy higher standards of living, and some humble Democrats allow for reform and dignity Become part of the socalled “ruleabiding international order”.
But it didn’t work that way.
Yes, China has become an economic giant, an important and integral part of the global supply chain, and the main trading partner for various countries around the world.
But this new position has not been accompanied by a shift toward democracy and liberalization. Beijing has indeed embarked on a path that has alarmed Western governments and many of its neighbors such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.
Which direction? The list is long, but here are the main sticking points between China and the West:
- Taiwan China has repeatedly promised to take the island autonomously and by force if necessary. US President Joe Biden said the US would defend Taiwan, despite official US policy not committing to military action.
- South China Sea China has colonized parts of this sea area with its powerful navy in recent years, claiming it as its own territory in violation of international law
- Technology China is increasingly accused of covertly collecting large amounts of personal data and stealing intellectual property for commercial gain
- HONG KONG Beijing has smashed democracy in the former British colony and sentenced activists to lengthy prison terms
- Uyghur Muslims Satellite data and eyewitness accounts point to the forced detention of up to a million Uyghur Muslims in camps in Xinjiang province.
Militarily, China is a force that should not be underestimated today. In recent years, the People’s Liberation Army, which commands China’s armed forces, has made tremendous strides in technology and innovation, as well as in the strength of its arsenal.
China’s Dong Feng hypersonic missiles, for example, can travel five times the speed of sound and are armed with a highexplosive or nuclear warhead.
That prompts the US Navy’s 7th Fleet, which operates in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and is based in Yokosuka, Japan, to pause to consider its military capabilities in the face of China’s numerous missile batteries on the ground.
China has also organized a program to rapidly expand its nuclear ballistic missiles, aiming to triple the number of warheads while building underground facilities to house these weapons in remote regions in the west of the country.
However, none of this means that China wants to go to war. When it comes to Taiwan, Beijing prefers to apply enough pressure to get the island to surrender and submit without a single shot being fired by the Chinese military.
Regarding Hong Kong, the Uyghurs and intellectual property, the CCP knows that criticism will diminish over time because trade ties with China are too important for the rest of the world.
Although tensions have now risen sharply and new incidents may arise in this conflict, both sides China and the West know that a war in the Pacific would be catastrophic for all.
Despite the angry rhetoric, escalating this confrontation is in nobody’s interest.