US Secretary of State Antony Blinken left no doubt about how the US will react if China decides to supply arms to Russia.
If Beijing supports the war of aggression against Ukraine with deadly equipment or systematically circumvents sanctions to help Moscow, “that would be a serious problem” for both countries, Blinken assured after a meeting of G20 foreign ministers in India on Thursday.
Blinken said he had already made this position clear to China’s top diplomat Wang Yi on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in February.
“I have made it clear that there will be consequences for this type of action. I won’t go into detail, but it is clear that we have sanctions of various kinds, which are definitely among the things that we and others have [países] we will think about it,” he said, noting that concerns about the delivery of lethal weapons are shared by other nations as well.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz also appealed to China not to supply Russia with weapons.
“Use your influence in Moscow to promote the withdrawal of Russian troops [da Ucrânia] and not deliver weapons to the aggressor Russia,” Scholz told the government in Beijing a few days ago.
Are warnings justified?
So far, however, the US has no practical evidence of this concern. According to Pentagon press secretary Pat Ryder, there is still no record of China providing lethal aid to Russia. However, the Pentagon also noted “that China has not taken the issue off the table.”
US President Joe Biden was also cautious. “I don’t expect any major initiative from China to arm Russia,” he said in an interview with ABC News a few days ago.
The head of the Ukrainian secret service, Kyrylo Budanov, takes the same point of view.
“Right now, I don’t think China will agree to arms transfers to Russia,” he said in an interview with the Voice of America radio station. “I don’t see any indication that these things are being discussed.”
Putin and Xi at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan in September 2022Photo: Sergei Bobylyov/Sputnik/AFP
In fact, so far American concerns have not been based on publicly available facts, explains Anna Marti, director of the Taipei office of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom.
It is conceivable that China could supply weapons, but “from the Chinese point of view there are many reasons against taking such a step,” says Marti.
According to Marti, there are signs that China is supplying military supplies to Russia. However, they are limited to spare parts, for example for drones. China can also supply navigation technology for fighter jets. “However, it must be emphasized that only the intelligence services know whether China has supplied or will supply deadly weapons,” he stresses.
Helena Legarda from the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies in Berlin agrees. There is evidence that China may have supported Russia with nonlethal equipment, such as the supply of semiconductor technology. So far, however, there is nothing to indicate that China has sent deadly weapons such as missiles or drones.
“Americans say they have evidence Beijing is considering providing such weapons. But so far there is no public evidence that China is considering it.”
Beijing doesn’t care about Putin’s defeat
Basically, China has a selfinterest in Russia not losing the war, says Legarda. Because both countries pursue common interests in relation to the world order.
“Both see the USA and thus also NATO as the main opponent. And both want to reshape the current world order because they think it is too dominated by the US and the West.”
The worst development from the Chinese point of view would therefore be a political shift in Moscow towards liberal democracy and a rapprochement with the West. “Because then China would be much more isolated with its geopolitical ambitions.”
In addition, Beijing also fears that a defeat by Russia will lead to political instability. “Both countries share a long border. This is another reason why Beijing does not want any politically unstable neighbors that could result from a defeat by Russia.”
Despite these Chinese interests, Legarda says there are many reasons for Beijing not to ship weapons to Moscow. Fearing secondary sanctions, many Chinese companies have complied with Western sanctions against Russia. In addition, the Chinese government is aware that relations with the USA and Europe would further deteriorate in the event of arms deliveries.
Sanctions threatened by the USA would have serious consequences, especially for the Chinese economy, says Anna Marti from the Friedrich Naumann Foundation. “The US will likely pressure its European partners to participate in such sanctions [contra Pequim], and that would be fatal for China, which has already been hit economically by the Covid19 pandemic. For this reason alone, Beijing should be very reluctant to hand over arms to Russia.”
“Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan”
Meanwhile, Americans remain vigilant. For Republican Michael McCaul, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, references to possible arms deliveries to Russia should be taken very seriously. For him, these warnings cannot be ignored. “Otherwise the Russians will stay on the Polish border and President Xi [Jinping] invade Taiwan,” he told US news channel ABC last Sunday.
The Kremlin’s view of Ukraine is consistent with Beijing’s view of Taiwan, says Anna Marti. “Putin denies that Ukraine is an independent state. China claims exactly the same thing about Taiwan.
How China can solve the war or create a bigger one
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