The forced relocation of more and more Gazans south of the Gaza Strip on the border with Egypt and the rapid worsening of the humanitarian crisis in the Palestinian enclave are raising concerns in Cairo. It is feared that the expansion of the Israeli military offensive, its siege policy and the constant relocation orders to the population are the prelude to the displacement of Gazans to the Sinai Peninsula or will aggravate their situation to the point that thousands of citizens are trying to escape The Sinai Peninsula is desperate to cross the border, in a scenario that Egyptian authorities see as a red line that could shake relations between the two countries.
Since the Israeli military attack on Gaza began at the beginning of October, there have been two major waves of displacement towards the south. In the initial phase, the Israeli occupation army's operations were focused on the northern half of the enclave and its neighbors were ordered to move to the southern half. After the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel was concluded on December 1, the Israeli ground offensive was expanded to the southern half, forcing tens of thousands of people, many of whom had already been displaced in the first weeks of the attack, to flee to points even further south , getting closer and closer to Egypt.
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It is estimated that about 1.8 million people in Gaza, about 85% of the population, are currently internally displaced, marking the largest movement of the Palestinian population since the mass exodus caused by the creation of the State of Israel in 1948, according to the UN agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA).
The current Israeli military offensive has also decimated the north of the enclave and the situation in the south is rapidly deteriorating. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the arrival of tens of thousands of displaced people in towns like Rafah near Egypt in recent days has led to extreme overcrowding. It is also exacerbating food and water shortages.
The Palestinian Health Ministry has also warned that the south's health system is in a catastrophic state, which, combined with the near-total collapse of its sanitation system, could soon cause more deaths from disease than from bombings, the organization said. World Health Organization (WHO). UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a letter to the Security Council on Saturday that “public order will soon collapse completely due to the desperate situation.”
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Protect Egyptian soil
Concerned about this growing pressure on its border with Gaza, Egypt has told both the United States and Israel that it is prepared to consider severing its relations with the Israeli state if the military campaign in the south of the Gaza Strip finally pushes residents out Palestinian territories are expected to flee to Sinai to seek refuge, according to four U.S. and Israeli officials quoted by Axios on Thursday. Egypt was the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.
Egyptian Defense Minister Mohamed Zaki, an influential figure close to President Abdel Fattá al Sisi, said in a speech last Monday that the country's armed forces are ready to maintain national security and stability in the face of any aggression on Egyptian soil. . And he noted that the situation was very delicate and could lead to an uncalculated military escalation that could force a new reality on the ground. The director of the Egyptian Information Service, Dia Rashwan, who has acted as a kind of official spokesperson in recent weeks, also reiterated last Thursday that the forced relocation towards Sinai represents a red line.
Egypt, along with Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, have raised concerns since the start of the Israeli offensive that Israel would end up driving Palestinians out of Gaza. Cairo has always categorically rejected forced relocation to its territory because it would undermine the Palestinians' right to establish a future state, including Gaza, and because it fears it would turn Sinai into a base of operations for Palestinian resistance movements. Sisi has suggested that Israel could temporarily relocate Gaza residents to the Negev Desert.
The collapse of the south is also accelerating due to the low level of humanitarian aid entering the Gaza Strip through the Rafah crossing, which connects with Egypt, due to obstacles and restrictions imposed by Israel. According to OCHA data, about 100 trucks carrying supplies have arrived daily since the end of the ceasefire, well below the average of 500 before the military offensive. The permitted amount of fuel is the minimum required to prevent the failure of the most critical services. In recent days, telecommunications outages and the intensity of hostilities have made obtaining assistance even more difficult.
The United Nations and Egypt have unsuccessfully asked Israel to allow aid to be sent through their border crossings, and International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor Karim Khan has warned that preventing the delivery of aid could constitute an international crime. In accordance with international humanitarian law, the evacuation of civilians in a conflict context must be accompanied by all measures to ensure satisfactory security, shelter, nutritional and hygiene conditions, said OCHA.
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