Sao Paulo
In another chapter in the interweaving of the tensions of the war in Ukraine with the general context of Cold War 2.0 between the United States and China, Russia conducted an ostensive patrol with two nuclearcapable bombers that day near Japan that the Prime Minister of the Asian country visited Kiev.
There is nothing accidental about the “timing” of Japanese Fumio Kishida’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy: it is taking place while Chinese leader Xi Jinping is in Moscow visiting Vladimir Putin, the man who ordered the invasion of his neighbor nearly 13 months ago .
The Russian response was equally symbolic, even if the Defense Department’s routine flight claim is true. Two large fourengine Tu95MS bombers left bases in the country’s Far East for a sevenhour patrol over the Sea of Japan, escorted by Su35S and Su30SM fighter jets.
What’s more, the flight comes a day after a Russian fighter intercepted two American B52 strategic bombers in the Baltic Sea region to prevent them from entering its airspace.
One of the countries hardest hit by Cold War 2.0, Japan has a particular feud with Moscow: Tokyo wants to retake a number of islands that were captured by the Soviet Union at the end of World War II. China’s historic rival has seen its position as Asia’s largest economy taken over by Beijing in recent decades. As the US’s key ally in the region, it has always sought a balance in relations.
With the intensification of the strategic dispute between China, who has ruled Xi since 2012, and the USA, which culminated in the 2017 trade dispute sparked by Donald Trump, Japan finally fell into the lap of the USA.
He broke with his antimilitarism that had prevailed since defeat in World War II, promised to increase spending in the sector and might even remove the constitutional requirement that his armed forces be used in more than selfdefense.
Kishida, one of the heirs to the policies of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was assassinated in 2022 after two years out of power, welcomed America’s IndoPacific agenda and also began to warn China of an eventual violent resumption of Taiwan as an autonomous island, the Beijing as its own and which it has threatened militarily.
Now it’s an active part of Quad, the antiChina group with India and Australia revived by the Joe Biden government, which also projected priority in the region by making the Aukus military pact with Australia and the UK which provides for the arming of Canberra with nuclearpowered submarines. In further evidence of the confusion, the US President and his partners Xi have already warned not to make Taiwan Ukraine.
Tokyo is also eyeing a renewed ballistic missile testing campaign by North Korea, an ally of China and Russia with its own agenda that has explicitly threatened Japan.
All of this comes as the Ukrainian drama unfolds, which began 20 days after Xi and Putin sealed their “borderless friendship deal,” which has seen the number of air patrols and joint naval exercises in the IndoPacific multiply maneuvers they already have Close allies of Moscow, like Iran, were involved, as well as a government whose neutrality in the war favors Russia, like South Africa.
Kishida’s visit to Kiev falls into this group of connections and interests. So far, Japan has not supplied the Ukrainians with weapons. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Germany, as of Jan. 15, the country has donated $520 billion in humanitarian aid and $610 billion in financial transfers.
The Russians, on the other hand, have increasingly pointed to what they call direct American intervention in the conflict. This Tuesday (21), powerful Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patruchev said the US was an active part of the war.
“With the aim of defeating Russia, the United States and its vassals continue to arm the Ukrainian regime and are already de facto participants in the conflict,” he told TASS agency. It’s not very different from the rhetoric of other officials like Putin, but the tone has increased, reflecting the fact that 75% of the military aid Kiev received in 2022 came from Washington and the rest from its allies.
The facts are piling up locally. Last week, a Russian Su27 fighter shot down an American MQ9 Reaper spy drone over the Black Sea in an apparent crash during interception.
On Tuesday, the Vostok Command of the Armed Forces in Ukraine (east, in Russian) said an attempted attack from Kiev in the Zaporizhia region (south) had artillery guidance in English from intercepted communications. Whether this is propaganda is unclear, but given the extent to which Western intelligence is shared with Ukrainians, it is credible. The Russians say they repelled the attack.
According to Ukraine, there have been 21 airstrikes and 9 rocket attacks along the front in the last 24 hours. There were no casualties and violence around Bakhmut (Donetsk, east) remains intense but with renewed outbreaks around the strategically important Adviika in the same area. In Crimea, Ukraine celebrated the hit of a train carrying Kalibr cruise missiles bound for the Black Sea Fleet, but there is still no independent confirmation of the feat.
The use of bombers for force signaling is a constant on patrols around the world. As with the drone, the risk is an unwanted escalation of tensions.
When intercepting the second (20) near Estonia, there was no complaint from the Americans about the pilot’s misconduct. After all, there are rules of engagement in this type of operation: If a bomber unintentionally comes too close to your airspace, it will be contacted by radio or by signals from the enemy fighter. Those who don’t stop will be knocked down with warning shots and in the border area.
Usually, the fighter just has to show up and escort the bomber or spy plane from afar. This happens every week at the stress points of this air network such as the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, the Korean Peninsula or Alaska.