Music City welcomes the baseball world to town this week for the annual Winter Meetings, but which teams – and which players – will have something to sing about when everyone leaves the Gaylord Opryland Resort on Thursday?
Rumors will be circulating throughout the lobby — multiple lobbies, to be precise — as some of the top free agents look for deals for 2024 and beyond. The same goes for the trade market, where there are a number of All-Stars who could trade their current uniforms for new ones by Opening Day.
Here are six storylines to watch as the Winter Meetings begin in Nashville.
1. Is it finally Sho Time?
It’s been a month since free agency began, and while Shohei Ohtani is the centerpiece of the 2023-24 offseason, we know remarkably little about his free agency.
Ohtani and his agent Nez Balelo have kept their deal secret, which has sparked nothing but speculation and guesswork about where the two-time American League MVP might be headed.
The Dodgers are still considered the favorite to sign Ohtani, although the Giants are believed to be serious about signing Ohtani as well. Then there are the two wild cards that are making a big splash: the Cubs and Blue Jays. We still have no idea if Ohtani is open to a move from the West Coast, but if so, these two clubs seem ready to put their best foot forward.
Will Ohtani sign during the winter meetings? That’s certainly possible, especially if he has narrowed his selection down to two or three clubs. The rest of the market certainly hopes so; Once Ohtani signs, that should open the floodgates for a number of other free agents to do the same.
There were also a number of one-year deals for starters Luis Severino ($13 million), Kyle Gibson ($13 million) and Lance Lynn ($11 million).
Do you know what didn’t exist yet? Lots of offers for batsmen.
The largest contract awarded to a position player as meetings begin is Jason Heyward’s one-year, $9 million deal to return to the Dodgers. After that, it’s Joey Wendle ($2 million), Garrett Hampson ($2 million) and Paul DeJong ($1.8 million).
What about Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler and Rhys Hoskins? This year’s market may not have the same flavor as the shortstop-heavy classes we’ve seen over the last two years, but there are still some impact bats available for hire.
It’s possible that some clubs – and some free agents too – are simply waiting for the Ohtani domino to fall before turning their attention to the rest of the market. The clubs that dodge and miss in their attempt to get Ohtani will need to pivot elsewhere to increase offense so the rest of the class is able to capitalize.
3. Soto to the Bronx?
While the position player market has remained quiet on the free agent front, the trade market – well, one in particular – has picked up some steam.
The brothers are expected to move Juan Soto this winter, possibly as early as this week. Despite reports that talks between the Yankees and Padres are still far apart, New York is still the clear favorite to land the two-time All-Star, whose left-handed bat would be the perfect addition to the Yanks’ lineup.
San Diego is said to be looking for young, major league-ready pitchers in return, so this won’t be the type of prospect-filled deal that brought Soto to the Padres in the summer of 2022. The Yankees could put together a package around either Michael King or Clarke Schmidt along with top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, which could be the kind of trade that could entice Padres GM AJ Preller to pull the trigger.
Other clubs – including the Blue Jays – remain interested in Soto, but if he’s traded this week it will feel like the Yankees are broke.
4. The big names from Asia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is this winter’s most intriguing free agent not named Ohtani, as the Japanese star is expected to sign a deal worth well over $200 million.
The Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Giants and Dodgers are among the teams believed to be eyeing Yamamoto, although most people in the industry believe there may well be an old-fashioned bidding war between the two New York clubs could come. That’s not to say the Dodgers can’t engage in such a war, but if they spend the money necessary to sign Ohtani, it remains to be seen whether Los Angeles will also be willing to spend big on Yamamoto.
5. Multiple ace pitchers can be dealt
Soto isn’t the only player on the trading block making headlines this winter, as four big-name pitchers – Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease, Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber – are all expected to be available at the right price.
Glasnow is the most likely of the quartet to be traded, as his $25 million salary is very high for a normally low-budget Rays team. Multiple executives have said they “definitely” expect Glasnow to be traded, while Burnes (who could be traded as part of a package with shortstop Willy Adames) and Cease are also likely trade candidates.
Bieber is the most complicated of the bunch due to an elbow injury that kept him off the mound from July 9 to September 22 last season. Cleveland needs to add an impact hitter or two, so dealing Bieber could be the best way to achieve that goal.
6. Hader could set a new reliever standard
Aside from a handful of deals, the bullpen market hasn’t been very active so far, although that could change this week in Nashville.
It will likely cost more than $100 million over five years to sign the All-Star stalwart, who is looking to eclipse Edwin Díaz’s record five-year, $102 million contract from last offseason .
Other relievers receiving strong interest include Robert Stephenson, Jordan Hicks and Hector Neris. Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel and David Robertson are also available, which could appeal to clubs looking for a proven, experienced closer on a short-term contract.