Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to the Vostochny Cosmodrome in eastern Russia on Wednesday afternoon (September 13, 2023), ahead of a summit that many governments and analysts fear will be fraught with agreements on the exchange of weapons and military technology will end.
Last week, the United States claimed that Russia was in the process of purchasing “millions of missiles and artillery shells from North Korea for use in Ukraine.”
However, White House national security spokesman John Kirby later added that there was “no indication” that the purchase had been completed and that there were still no signs that North Korean weapons had been used in Ukraine be.
give rise to speculation
Any arms deal between North Korea and Russia would violate multiple UN Security Council resolutions, including, ironically, resolutions previously supported by Moscow.
“My impression is that both sides want military material and military technology, but a lot of it is just to scare their rivals with speculation about new weapons and capabilities that they will suddenly acquire,” says Yakov Zinberg, professor of natural sciences, to DW. Russian Origin of International Relations at Kokushikan University in Tokyo.
“There have been many reports that Russia cannot produce enough ammunition for its troops in Ukraine, and we also know that North Korea has plenty in stock.”
Weapons against wheat?
Russia needs to procure more artillery ammunition, even though the shells North Korea has in reserve are based on designs that are half a century old.
Although these less advanced weapons do not provide precision strikes, they could be used to bomb civilian infrastructure and Ukrainian positions.
Kim and Putin met on Wednesday in the Russian Far East. Image: Vladimir Smirnov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP/Picture Alliance
North Korea has retained the weapons production facilities provided to it by the former Soviet Union during the 1950-53 Korean War and has expanded its arsenals since then.
However, the country is suffering from dramatic food shortages after another poor harvest season and has been starved of fuel since the first 2006 sanctions were tightened in 2017. Kim is likely to ask Putin for food and fuel to ease the shortage.
Nuclear weapons technology could also be on the North Koreans’ shopping list, including the know-how needed to safely re-enter the atmosphere of a nuclear warhead on an intercontinental ballistic missile, a challenge that analysts say Kim’s scientists will face. They haven’t gotten over that yet.
But even if Kim asks about the most advanced technology Moscow can provide, such as miniaturizing nuclear devices or powering nuclear submarines, Putin is unlikely to reveal all of his secrets.
That’s what Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, believes: “Not even a desperate war machine will trade its military jewels for crude, old ammunition,” Easley told DW.
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A broader North Korea-Russia axis in Asia?
Russia is also likely to propose joint military exercises with North Korea and China to increase pressure on South Korea and Japan, sending the message that rapprochement with the United States in Ukraine and the Pacific comes with costs.
However, Easley does not expect North Korea to agree to participate in the exercises “because it does not want to disclose its shortcomings in training and equipment, not even to Moscow and Beijing.”
“Trust between Russia, North Korea and China is so low that a true alliance between the three is neither credible nor sustainable,” says Easley.
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