“I smell it terrorism“, He says Erdogan. But who are the terrorists? The Kurdish guerrillas, the Islamic State fighters or others? Included in these “Others” are two other hypotheses besides the Kurds and ISIS: a destabilizing act by foreign services, perhaps Russian or pro-Russian, in connection with the war in Ukraine, or an action with internal objectives, considering that the Turkey he is already campaigning and will vote for Parliament and the Presidency in June 2023. And already in the past, shortly before the elections, terrorist attacks had multiplied.
Attack in Istanbul, fear for two of Sora’s business wives
THE CLAIM
“Even if there is a claim, one has to be careful in assessing its reliability,” explains Marco Lombardi, professor at Cattolica in Milan, expert in hybrid warfare and director of the Itstime research center. «Among other things, the Turks blocked Russian ships in the Black Sea Straits and forced them to retreat. The whole situation in the region is fluid, on the move, and terrorism or the use of terrorism is an asset, a tool of hybrid warfare. In fact, we are in a full hybrid war ». According to Lombardi, terrorism is not configured according to its motives but according to its modalities, so it must be “understood on the basis of the effects it produces, not the reasons behind it”. An argument that leaves all paths open. Also, based on past claims and attacks, there is a hypothesis that the Kurds attacked, but the question of “why now” remains unanswered. A Kurdish claim is always possible, not necessarily true. Authentic maybe, but not true. According to the latest report by the International Crisis Group, a think tank focused on terrorism and conflict situations in the world, the element that is most risky for Turkey in 2022 remains the military confrontation with the Turkish PKK and its Iraqi offshoots . Syria and Southeast Turkey, while tensions are high with Greece over the issue of underwater exploration of energy sources. In particular, the Kurdish YPG forces in northern Syria continue to be attacked by Turkish drones, some of which have even targeted individual commanders, for example in the Aleppo region. Other hypotheses arise precisely from Erdogan’s activism in recent months as a tireless mediator between Moscow and Kyiv. His involvement has unfolded in many directions, and new talks between him and Putin are expected these days. For example, she tried to stop arms shipments and instead endorsed an agreement to resume grain shipments. In Ukraine, the moment after the recapture of Kherson and the victorious counter-offensive in Kyiv is crucial. In Russia there is a strong war party, represented by the “siloviki”, who are pushing for military escalation. Destabilizing a country that has sought the path of negotiation from the start can be functional for a continuation of the conflict. The domestic political scenario should not be underestimated either. The June 2023 elections will be among the most important in Turkey in recent years. It will be an important test of Erdogan’s term in office, who enjoys even more credibility through his role in foreign policy. He is an undisputed personality, the figure of a leader like Turkey had only with Kemal Ataturk, but Erdogan faces a number of problems, mainly related to the economic situation (with high inflation and an interest rate strategy always lower interest rates). Courses with exchange rates at the top of the central bank). On the other hand, Erdogan and his party, the AKP, are catching up in all polls and are ahead of the other parties. The opposition lacks an equally strong leader and is struggling to reach an agreement that will allow them to speak out together.
POPULAR MEASURES
Erdogan then launched popular measures, in particular he increased the salaries of civil servants by up to 42 percent. He also never tires of repeating that the more than 3.6 million Syrian refugees who have been taken in by the neighboring country since the war began have strained Turkey’s finances. However, Erdogan managed to allocate 30 billion Turkish liras (almost 2 billion euros) to cover the accumulated debts of more than 5 million families and launched an ambitious housing program.
Terrorist attacks have not always been alleged in Turkey, although they have almost always resulted in trials and convictions. And essentially, responsibility for the attacks is shared between Kurds on the one hand and jihadists on the other. But what is changing the cards compared to before is the proxy war at the borders, with attempts at destabilization spreading to the country that is now the only real factor of stability in the region, with Erdogan the only leader with any chance of making it to bring the candidates to the negotiating table.
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