by Andrea Nicastro
For Israelis, the movement led by Hassan Nasrallah is ten times more powerful than Hamas. What will happen tomorrow?
FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
BEIRUT (LEBANON) – Tomorrow is the day that has been expected in Lebanon since October 7th. Expected since Hamas attacked Israel and put pressure on the entire region. Tomorrow is the day when Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, will speak. The Lebanese Party of God has a military force that is much more organized and formidable than that of Hamas. The Israelis estimate it to be ten times stronger.
Hezbollah is the movement that gained enormous prestige in Lebanon through its resistance to the Israeli invasion in 2006. Israel razed the outskirts of Beirut but refrained from invading because it would have been costly for its soldiers, and Hezbollah was able to call its resistance a victory.
What will Nasrallah say tomorrow? Three hypotheses are circulating in Beirut.
The first is disastrous for a country already on its knees due to an economic crisis that cuts off electricity 23 hours a day. Hezbollah joins Hamas’ war and attacks Israel from the north. He can do it, but it would be the end of Hezbollah’s evolution from an armed resistance movement to a ruling party. Given the failure of Lebanon’s public institutions, Hezbollah managed to create a parallel state by managing a dollar economy that excludes banking and uses only cash. Should Nasrallah announce entry into the war, the destruction caused by the Israeli Air Force could no longer be repaired. There are no Gulf financiers available, there are no resources in Lebanon and Hezbollah’s image as the protector of Lebanon would disappear.
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There is a second hypothesis about Nasrallah’s speech tomorrow. He could proclaim his solidarity with Hamas, condemn the Israeli response as criminal, but essentially remain on the sidelines. This has been happening since the beginning of the crisis. Pinpricks, a few rockets, a few ideas, but nothing massive. Israel responds blow by blow with the same sense of responsibility, but without ever raising the level of the conflict.
There is a third hypothesis. Nasrallah could announce the involvement of armed militias in the conflict, but not directly from Lebanon and not directly under the Hezbollah banner. This could be done by encouraging volunteers to travel from beyond the Shiite Crescent to open a northern front against Israel in the Golan Heights. The venture would have the advantage of attacking areas that Israel occupies without UN recognition and would make it more difficult for Israel to take direct action against Hezbollah bases in Lebanon. In addition to this attack force, supported exclusively by Hezbollah, there would of course be Iran, the region’s major sponsor, with all its militias cultivated over the years from Iraq to Yemen to Syria. A popular offensive that people want to hide behind.
These are just hypotheses, a short circuit of fear and concern about what was unleashed on October 7th. Lebanon knows its balance is fragile. He knows that Christians and Muslims manage to live side by side even when they are at odds.
If Nasrallah had united the Shiite and Sunni factions in the name of resistance to Israel, he would have achieved his political masterpiece, but it would trigger a new civil war from which Lebanon would not have the strength to recover. For this reason, most Lebanese hope that Nasrallah’s speech will only serve to buy time, issue ultimatums and threaten in the hope that the war will end sooner.
November 2, 2023 (modified November 2, 2023 | 3:06 p.m.)
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