Lina Khatib was born and raised in Beirut. Her parents still live in Lebanon and she undoubtedly pays little attention to her country of birth, although she makes it clear that she now works and lives in London. Khatib is one of the most respected voices in the research and analysis of events in the Middle East, today as director of the SOAS Institute (acronym in English for School of Oriental and African Studies) in the British capital, but with the prestigious Carnegie Centers and the Chatam House into his curriculum. The professor, essayist and commentator visits EL PAÍS at the Casa Arabe in Madrid as part of a EuroMeSCo network seminar organized by the European Mediterranean Institute. “In Lebanon there is a concern that it will become just another front,” she says when asked about her roots. “[La milicia] Hezbollah knows its response is expected and has done so by firing rockets into Israel, although I do not believe it will increase its involvement [en la ofensiva de Hamás]“.
Questions. The attack on Israel launched on Saturday is of a large scale. Is Hamas solely responsible?
Answer. As for the Palestinian side, Hamas is undoubtedly the main actor in this attack. There is some connection to Islamic Jihad, another Iranian-backed group in Palestinian territory, particularly in Gaza. In the geopolitical context, Hamas enjoys the support of Iran, as do Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah. When it comes to who provided Hamas with money, training and equipment, Iran is definitely the main player along with Hezbollah. This militia has a longer history and has been supporting Hamas with military coordination, training and equipment for several years. Hamas cannot act without Iranian support.
Q Would such an offensive be conceivable without Iran’s help?
R. Without Iranian resources, Hamas would not have the military equipment, training and funding that it has, which made this attack possible. We should distinguish between Iran’s command and Hamas’s obedience, and Hamas’s desire to do so and Iran’s consent and support. The scenario is the second. This is not an attack ordered by Tehran and carried out by Hamas. It is an attack planned and carried out by Hamas in collaboration with Iran and Hezbollah.
Q What is the goal of the Hamas operation?
Join EL PAÍS to follow all the news and read without restrictions.
Subscribe to
R. The most important is political. It is said to be a political turning point for Hamas. And that has two levels. One is national and the other is international. Internally, Hamas wants this attack to show that the Palestinian Authority, which is ultimately a political rival, is weak and does not represent the voices of the Palestinians. Second, on a geopolitical level, Hamas wants to be seen internationally as the Palestinians’ only legitimate interlocutor. And with this, Iran also wants to strengthen its own regional position. There would therefore be no solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict if the international community did not negotiate with Iran on the geopolitical level and with Hamas on the Palestinian level.
Q What is the breeding ground that explains why it is occurring now?
R. In recent months there has been great tension in the relationship between Palestinians and Israelis and much violence, particularly by Israeli forces against Palestinians, not only in Gaza but even outside, in Jerusalem. And that has led to growing anger among the Palestinian population. Hamas has exploited this feeling by presenting itself as the one that can put an end to this situation. For this reason, Hamas enjoys widespread support for this attack among Palestinians, even among those who would not traditionally support the militia.
More information
At the geopolitical level, talks between Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United States have intensified in recent months, and the Palestinian Authority has been involved in negotiating an agreement between these actors. This would have given Saudi Arabia some security guarantees and represented some sort of solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, with the Palestinian Authority involved in any solution. Of course, Hamas was excluded. And if these talks gain momentum, Hamas runs the risk of becoming politically irrelevant or excluded and therefore wants to assert itself politically internationally.
Lina Khatib from SOAS Middle East Institute during the interview this Monday at Casa Arabe in Madrid. Samuel Sanchez
Q The most difficult thing to explain is Israel’s lack of foresight and intelligence.
R. There is increasing information about how Hamas has prepared militarily and what training it has undertaken. And yet Israel did not see it coming. Perhaps there was not enough coordination within Israel, for example between the Mossad and other elements of the Interior Ministry and the military. Perhaps political divisions in Israel have influenced this lack of coordination. And when there is a lack of coordination like this, certain things get overlooked in a complex scenario like this. The American secret service did not expect this either. But I think this is partly because many in the West, including Israel, viewed the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as stagnant, a kind of stalemate, of low intensity. No one really expected Hamas to take action on this level in a military campaign against Israel.
Q What will it cost Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu?
R. Netanyahu contributed to this attack in many ways through the behavior of the far-right government he led, in which he put an extremist in charge of the Interior Ministry. At the same time, Netanyahu is facing trial and must come to power. Otherwise, you could end up in prison. Being in power gives him immunity and that is why it is important for Netanyahu to stay in power to avoid going to prison for corruption. That’s why he enlisted other leaders of rival political parties to form an emergency government that would form a sort of coalition between him, [Benny] Gantz and [Yair] Lapid so he’s not isolated.
Israel loses face when its own citizens view it as weak to Hamas, and that is another reason why Netanyahu wants to show that he is firm in his response. And that is why the Israeli army has announced a complete siege of the Gaza Strip. I do not believe it will be a total ground invasion as this would come at a very high price for both Israel and Palestinian citizens. But of course a siege comes with high costs, especially for the Palestinians.
Q The Israeli response assumes that hundreds of Palestinians, including civilians, will lose their lives. Does Hamas have enough support in the occupied territories to sustain its aggression against Israel?
R. The situation in Gaza is inhumane. Many, including myself, have described it as an open-air prison. We have a siege that has been going on for about two decades, a situation where people have nowhere to go and so it is a densely populated area. There is no way to earn a living. These people feel desperate and have few options. And if a military campaign, even at a high cost, means a change in the status quo, then many people will be willing to make that sacrifice.
Q Will the Abraham Accords that Israel has signed with other Arab countries influence the region’s response to the escalation of violence?
R. The Abraham Accords weren’t really about Israel and Palestine. They looked at relations between the various Arab countries that have signed with Israel. It was never intended to be a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But there are also other actors that have been closely involved in resolving this conflict, such as Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, which continues to adhere to the terms of the Arab Peace Initiative, which advocates a two-state solution. He repeated it after the attacks. Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt have said they will seek a meeting and try to find a way out. The Arab countries that have traditionally been involved are still involved. This conflict has not changed who is considered a peace broker. But one thing is clear: This attack makes it very difficult for Saudi Arabia to move forward with its plan to talk to Israel, the United States and the Palestinian Authority about a possible solution.
Follow all international information on Facebook and Xor in our weekly newsletter.
Subscribe to continue reading
Read without limits