- In the next stage of the war in Ukraine, Russia is focusing on the east of the country and is preparing a major offensive there.
- What’s behind it and how should it continue?
- Military expert Gustav Gressel explains a “sledgehammer tactic” Russia is already familiar with from Syria.
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According to Western military information, the Russian army is preparing an offensive in eastern Ukraine. According to the US Department of Defense, Russia has increased its troops from 30,000 to 40,000 in recent weeks.
White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said the Russian army would likely try to “surround and dominate” Ukrainian units. Since 2014, they have maintained the front line against the Moscow-controlled and armed separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer warned: “This battle will be fought vehemently.”
Eastern Ukraine as a new “minimum target”?
The Ukrainian armed forces are already preparing for the scenario of a large-scale Russian offensive. At the same time, according to the Guardian, Serhiy Gaidai, the governor of Luhansk, urged all residents to flee as quickly as possible.
Military expert Gustav Gressel does not believe that the withdrawal of Russian troops from the area around the capital Kiev means that eastern Ukraine is Putin’s new minimum target. “Official rhetoric in Moscow has not changed,” he recalls.
Known Syria tactic
The announcement to now focus on Donbass also came from the General Staff. “We see here more a description of the military operations in the coming weeks and months than a political statement of what must be achieved in Ukraine”, analyzes the expert.
The procedure is already known in Syria. There, Russian troops supported the Assad regime in 2015. “People went there with small troops and fought on all fronts. But that didn’t work and you couldn’t bring about a turnaround,” Gressel recalls. One reason for this was that Russian forces had fragmented.
Donbass as the easiest target
“Starting in 2016, tactics changed and a heavyweight was conquered,” says Gressel. Homs, Palymra, then Aleppo and Idlib followed. The default: “Offensive, operational pause, prepare the next offensive” can now also be expected from Russia.
Donbass is the easiest to take as a first destination. “The front is shorter here, so the Russians can concentrate more troops and attack harder,” explains Gressel. Also, rail connections are better.
Russians are familiar with the terrain
“Around Kiev you had to cover very long supply routes on roads and in some cases bridges and makeshift roads had to be built,” says Gressel. In Donbass, it is now logistically easier to bring in goods such as artillery ammo. “Russians are generally more familiar with the situation and terrain here,” he adds.
According to Western estimates, a Russian attack could come from the north towards Kharkiv and Izyum. More recently, satellite images from Izyum showed a kilometer-long convoy of infantry support vehicles, attack helicopters and command posts, a Pentagon official said. A second pincer attack could come from the south.
Kremlin expects longer periods
Gressel is right: “The concentration in eastern Ukraine does not mean that this war is no longer aimed at the total occupation of Ukraine. It just shows that the Russians are expecting longer periods of time.”
The Kremlin insists that Ukraine must be destroyed, become a Russian satellite state and be “desukrainian”. Gressel sees another indication of this: Russia’s reaction to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to Ukraine, during which she promised rapid EU membership.
adherence to war goals
“Russia did not react. This suggests that Moscow expects this issue to be resolved militarily anyway,” says Gressel. For Russia, the political talk about EU membership is irrelevant because they want to militarily subjugate and occupy Ukraine anyway.
“If Russia expected Ukraine to remain an independent state at the end of the war, even in a minor way, it would now protest strongly,” the expert said. He therefore expects a step-by-step approach from the Russian army after eastern Ukraine.
Approach with a sledgehammer
“The next blow could be Kharkiv, then Odessa. Then across the Dnieper, from the bottom to the south. Then it would be Kiev’s turn and central and western Ukraine,” he supposes. Russia will now advance step by step with the sledgehammer – even if it is slower.
“Russia is now trying to free up forces wherever it can. The new workers include, for example, recruits who enlisted in the army in April of last year,” says Gressel. The troops that fought Kiev are currently regrouping in Belarus. “They need new equipment and they need to be reorganized. They are more likely to come into action later”, estimates Gressel.
Crucial wear ratio
How long Russia can continue to hold out depends largely on how Ukraine now repels the attacks and inflicts casualties on the Russians. “So far, Ukraine has achieved a very high attrition rate. Russia is now trying to control that,” says Gressel.
If that doesn’t work, Russia has a real problem. “But if Russian plans come true and the relationship turns in its favor, then Russia will have a chance to use this offensive and the next offensive to decisively wear down Ukraine and force it out of the war,” Gressel warns.
About the expert:
Gustav Gressel is an expert in security policy, military strategy and international relations. He completed officer training and studied political science at the University of Salzburg. Gressel focuses on Eastern Europe, Russia and the foreign policy of the great powers.
Fonts used:
- The Guardian.com: Luhansk residents told to evacuate as Russia shifts focus to eastern Ukraine
Updated on 04/14/2022 08:13
Russia is massing its troops in eastern and southern Ukraine. The West continues to massively arm the defenders. All the more reason for the misunderstanding of the Kiev invitation of Federal President Steinmeier. Photo credit: imago-images