There were more than 60,000 heat-related deaths in Europe in the summer of 2022, the hottest summer on record on the continent. Italy had the highest number of heat victims (18,010), followed by Spain (11,324) and Germany (8,173), researchers report in the journal “Nature Medicine.” In Austria, there were 419 deaths caused by heat. There were 114 heat-related deaths per million population in the 35 countries surveyed, compared with 47 in Germany.
The group led by Joan Ballester of the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) determined the values using data analysis and computer models. Heat-related deaths are not easy To. Because heat as a direct cause of death, like heat stroke or heat stroke, is rarely given. Therefore, doctors and statisticians rely on the assessment of deaths and the comparison between hot and less hot summers. If more people die in weeks with high temperatures than in comparable weeks in other years, this excess mortality is presumed to be heat-related. Although most of those who died from the heat died from a previous illness, the heat put additional strain on the body.
Ballester and his colleagues base their analysis on a large database: on more than 45 million deaths between January 2015 and November 2022 in 823 contiguous regions, representing more than 543 million Europeans in 35 countries. Data come from the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat), supplemented with data from national statistical authorities. The researchers linked the number of deaths to temperature anomalies, which were defined as the difference between measured temperatures and baseline temperatures. Baseline temperatures are average values for the reference period from 1991 to 2020.
According to the analysis, temperatures in Europe in June 2022 were between 0.78 and 2.33 degrees, in July between 0.18 and 3.56 degrees and in August between 0.91 and 2.67 degrees above reference temperatures. The largest temperature deviations occurred in Spain and southern France. With 237 heat deaths per million inhabitants, Spain is one of the most affected countries, along with Italy (295), Greece (280) and Portugal (211). France recorded the highest number of heat-related deaths among people aged 64 and under (1,007). Overall, France was more in the middle of the European range, with 73 heat deaths per million population.
Where such data were available, scientists attributed heat-related deaths to age groups. In the summer of 2022, 4,822 people aged up to 64 died from the heat (Austria: 52), 9,226 aged between 65 and 79 (Austria: 160) and 36,848 aged 80 and over (Austria: 213). This confirms that heat is a particularly high risk for the elderly.
The study authors urge policymakers to act: “Given the magnitude of heat-related mortality on the continent, our findings call for a reassessment and strengthening of heat monitoring platforms, prevention plans, and long-term adaptation strategies.” If steps are not taken to adapt to climate change, scientists expect an average heat-related mortality burden of around 68,000 deaths per summer by 2030, over 94,000 deaths by 2040, and well over 120,000 deaths by 2050.
According to Matthias an der Heiden of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) in Berlin, the study’s calculations have a solid basis. However, he and his colleagues only identified 4,500 victims of the consequences of heat waves in Germany for the year 2022. He explains the difference to the 8,173 heat-related deaths in the current study, among other things, with different definitions of “heat “: While Ballester’s team assumes a comfortable temperature (thermal optimum) at a weekly average of 17 to 19 degrees, this one is in the RKI Study at 20 degrees. An der Heiden cautions against downplaying heat as an issue. “In warmer countries, there is often more adaptation to high temperatures than here.”
(SERVICE – Internet: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z)