Cover 7 | Wednesday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Every Wednesday, Randy Mueller presents his insights from the general manager’s perspective.
Although the window for NFL general managers to make deals has been open all season, nothing beats adding the element of deadline and increasing urgency to further discussions. After 4:00 p.m. ET on October 31, teams will have no choice but to live with their rosters as-is for the remainder of the 2023 season. As we approach the closing of the trading window, we will undoubtedly have further evidence of the old adage that deadlines encourage action.
As with most trade deadlines, regardless of sport, an NFL GM could be faced with about a dozen worth exploring. I’m not advising anyone – GMs know their teams best – but I’d be more aggressive with the Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints, whose seasons could go either way. Below are five offers I would consider ASAP:
The Bills are getting a linebacker for their defense
Last week, Buffalo played without four starters on defense and a fifth, edge rusher Von Miller, played sparingly. Defensive tackle Da’Quan Jones, cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano are on injured reserve, and their top defensive lineman Ed Oliver missed the game with a toe injury. It was clear that they could not withstand the New England Patriots’ weak offense. The Patriots scored 11 first downs in the fourth quarter alone and pushed the Bills all over the field. Bills QB Josh Allen had actually given his team the lead back late before the defense faltered again and gave up a game-winning attack.
I don’t think the Bills can continue like this and they will be forced to make a deal. I’d start in Denver with the much-maligned Broncos, but before you laugh and say, “Why would we want to remove someone from a historically bad defense?” Remember that even bad defenses have players with effective individual skills. Against the Patriots, the Bills used two young and unproven inside linebackers and replaced one with a college free agent in the second half – hardly a recipe for long-term success.
Denver inside linebacker Josey Jewell, at age 29 and in the final year of his contract, makes perfect sense as a rental for the remainder of this season. Broncos coach Sean Payton has made it clear he will listen to any offers. Jewell is a consistent traffic cop who can put anyone in a line and has always shown a very good feel for the ball. And it could have a calming effect on a group in trouble.
Additionally, if the Bills are willing to part with a little more compensation, they should ask for defensive tackle Mike Purcell as well as. Purcell is a versatile sleuth who can also play 3-technique and is also in the final year of his contract. He plays 36 percent of Denver’s defensive snaps and holds the point of attack very well, getting out of the blocks and playing with a consistent motor and pad level that the Bills are really missing with Jones and Oliver out of the lineup.
Both Broncos can be expected to get an adrenaline rush from moving from the chaos in Denver to a really good Bills team, and neither of them has exorbitant salaries, so they should fit under a tighter cap. I would do one or both of these deals in a heartbeat. I’m not sure the Bills couldn’t get both of them for a fourth or fifth round pick. At this point the bills need to be somewhat desperate and not contentious.
The Packers are getting a slot receiver for Jordan Love
If the decision-makers in the soon-to-be-frozen tundra of Green Bay were given a truth serum, they would admit that pairing a young and unproven quarterback with multiple young and inexperienced targets might be too much to ask. That’s especially true when they factor in the loss of their best running back, who was supposed to take the pressure off any young players by refocusing on the floor for several weeks. At 2-4 and three defeats in a row. The Packers need to recalculate. Your season is on the brink of collapse, but with a little aggressive attitude this can be fixed.
At 24.9, the Packers have the NFL’s youngest offense based on age, and at the wide receiver position it’s even lower at 23.5. Former Packers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb are now Jets, and their experience, perspective and consistency have a value that may have been underrated. If the Packers are able to add one or even two experienced receivers, I think it would make life easier for everyone on offense.
Hunter Renfrow The Las Vegas Raiders have been in the witness protection program so far this season. Now 28, he is the same Renfrow who had 103 catches in 2021. He has an incredible eight catches on 12 targets this season (both are fifth on the team) and is playing 36 percent of the offensive snaps.
This sounds even crazier to me when you pull up the film and still see speed, agility, the ability to separate man-to-man, AND a natural knack for finding weaknesses against the zone. If ever there was a reason for a change of scenery, this is it. I don’t understand at all what the Raiders are trying to do other than say he plays a parallel role with former Patriot Jakobi Meyers – who may have locked up the “teacher’s pet” role.
If Green Bay can get the Raiders to pay most of the remainder of Hunter’s 2023 salary (approximately $4 million), it should quickly move on from a late-round draft pick for 2024 or beyond. I also don’t think the Packers can afford to wait because there could be competition. The Patriots, Saints and even the 49ers, with Deebo Samuel, could make a case for adding skills like Renfrow if the price is right.
The Patriots are getting some speed for their offense
Sometimes it’s painful to watch. A lack of big plays and explosive players forces offenses into long drives that often end in errors or penalties or just poor execution. That was the story of New England’s offense before its breakout game against Buffalo in Week 7, a result that I view as an exception rather than a trend. The Patriots need to find a way to utilize some talent around QB Mac Jones or his career as a starter will be short-lived.
No team has had more difficulty recruiting wide receivers in the last 15 years than the Patriots. Their review process was definitely flawed. And I think they’ve reached a point this year where beggars can no longer have a choice. You can’t wait long to find the perfect fit or negotiate the best compensation to acquire a wide receiver. The need for speed is a reason to overpay for something. That’s why I would do the deal for Denver Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy. Sure, maybe you’d rather have his teammate Courtland Sutton – because I think he’s a better player – but Sutton’s contract is problematic for both Denver and an acquiring team, so that’s unlikely to happen.
Jeudy, on the other hand, will carry about $1.5 million in salary to a new team and, as a former first-round pick, has a fifth-year option that has already been exercised for $12.9 million for 2024. Jeudy has 20 catches and is playing 59 percent of the offensive snaps this season. His skillset is outstanding, although consistency and intangibles are still a work in progress. Patriots coach Bill Belichick has a great relationship with Jeudy’s college coach from Alabama, Nick Saban, so it should be easy to push the right buttons on Jeudy to further his maturity.
Back to skills. Jeudy isn’t strong or physical, but he can eat up a cushion, break away from coverage and actually take the lead on the defense in a way that no current Pats receiver can. He can be explosive after the catch and is not afraid to go over the middle and reach out to catch with his hands. He just needs to be more consistent about it. As Jones’ college teammate, it doesn’t hurt to get acquainted with the Patriot manner, either.
I think Jeudy will be traded somewhere and there will likely be competition for his services as the deadline approaches.
The Saints are getting a TE to help their downhill run game
I get it, Derek Carr was struggling and the offensive line was riddled with injuries. That’s not a good combination for an offense that seems out of rhythm and has no true identity. The Saints’ running game has been a sideline-to-sideline attempt to get Alvin Kamara going since his return from suspension. He has become nothing more than a third-down receiver who fills the fantasy football scoring column. His contract prevents the Saints from trading him at next week’s deadline, but a postseason trade could be an option.
For the Saints to improve now, they need a more direct approach with a downhill back to take the pressure off Carr and the receivers, who don’t seem to be on the same page (I could also make a case for Renfrow here, but the salary cap probably won’t allow this). When the Saints offense got going, there was always one or two defenders who could gain yards after contact with pad height and power, but also had enough power to force arm tackles.
In case you haven’t figured it out yet, the theme here is that any addition to the roster must be at or close to a minimum salary. To improve the running game, the Saints’ best option might be a blocking tight end. They benefit little to nothing from this position, especially in the blocking area. But a deal with the Arizona Cardinals at age 30 is imminent Geoff Swaim. Swaim is known as one of the better blocking TEs in the league and in my opinion you could have him for a cup of coffee. The Cardinals are looking for draft picks to add young talent. Swaim is still doing his thing for a rebuilding Arizona team this year and would likely welcome a potential playoff appearance as an option. He ranks third on the Cardinals’ roster and plays 34 percent of the snaps.
Most would view this as a low-level deal with little consequence, but a more physical player at the point of attack can set the tone and mindset of a Saints team that relies more on finesse. For a team in transition like this, adding strength and toughness from a position that has become more pass-catching friendly could be a good option.
I might even try adding another back with size and juice like one Ty Chandler from the Vikings, which I like very much. For some reason the Vikings see no value in him and he plays very little. He was left off the depth chart in September when the Vikings acquired Cam Akers, who was familiar with Rams head coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense. A team that does their homework should inquire because I think Chandler is a starting RB in the NFL.
A forward-thinking team gets a future starting quarterback
Last year during my draft prep, I saw a QB that I thought was a possible NFL starter after a full evaluation. Hendon Hooker from the University of Tennessee showed me arm talent, good athletic ability, processing ability and NFL accuracy. He threw with enough timing and anticipation that I included him in my top five QBs for the 2024 NFL Draft. He injured his ACL in his final season and is currently recovering from the Detroit Lions, who selected him in the third round.
Things have changed for the Lions since then. Jared Goff is having an outstanding year – so much so that they will have to extend his contract soon. If you’re a team that had similar thoughts to me regarding Hooker and still has doubts about your QB of the future, then why not give Detroit a call?
We did this once in 2000 when I was GM of the Saints. The Packers had drafted a quarterback from Virginia, Aaron Brooks, in Round 4 the previous year. I really liked him during our pre-draft process, and a year later in New Orleans we still weren’t sure which guy we wanted going forward. We offered the Packers a third-round pick for Brooks, and he became the best passer of all time before Drew Brees broke his records.
If you are confident in your evaluations and trust your team to be a good fit, I would have the Lions say no to a second-round pick for Hooker before moving on to another option at QB.
• Trades are underway, with the latest move seeing the Tennessee Titans send safety and four-time captain Kevin Byard to the Super Bowl-contending Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles always seem to be on a roll to get better. The Titans, who tried to persuade Byard to take a pay cut earlier this summer (unsuccessfully, I might add), now face a number of questions that follow a move like this, even remotely resembling a rebuild smells. Moving away from Byard, who was undoubtedly considered a loyal soldier who didn’t miss a game in eight seasons, secured 27 career interceptions and is the voice/face of your defense, is hard for those who want to be exactly that to sell him. As GMs, we’ve all had to do this sooner or later, and it’s not easy.
• Sometimes team building agendas can be different in the same building. A coach who needs to win now to secure his future with the team versus a longer-term approach of thinking beyond this year and securing a piece for the future – in a draft choice – are two different mindsets. That’s why it’s important that the GM and head coach are on the same team building cycle.
You see this in Washington, where coach Ron Rivera needs all the wins he can get – this year – making it difficult to give up on players who could help that cause. But since he paid two of his first four on defense and the other two are free agents at the end of the season, paying everyone is probably impossible. So the question commanders have to ask themselves is: Are we getting something for one now, rather than nothing in four months?
(Photo by Josey Jewell: Scott Winters / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)