From one perspective, the first weekend of the NBA Playoffs was a chaotic mess. Most of the 16 teams hadn’t played in a week. Their opponents used all the time to plan against everything they showed in the regular season. Some players and teams get more pressure than others. Team-wide strengths are fading. Weaknesses are strengthened. All eight opening round games were played within approximately 36 hours.
So you’ll be forgiven if you feel a little overwhelmed with the slate of the weekend. Fortunately, things will calm down later this week. Only two or three games a night will be played through Saturday, and it will quickly become clear which teams will retain the fighting spirit and which will be overcome by surrender. But for now, let’s cover a lesson from each of the eight games played over the weekend.
Lakers vs. Grizzlies: LA can’t afford to play small
The best player on the court when the Lakers defeated the Grizzlies 128-112 was Anthony Davis. The second best player on the court – despite fireworks from Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura – was Jaren Jackson Jr. Aside from his usual excellent defense, Jackson scored 31 points on Sunday afternoon’s 13-of-21 shooting.
In a way, this was a sacrifice that LA was willing to make. Both the Lakers and Grizzlies have a star defensive big man, and both preferred using this player to protect the weakest opposing scorer. Why? So they could focus their efforts on slowing down everyone else as an Aid defender. Xavier Tillman is still a decent post defender, so at least he got Davis working for his points.
The same cannot really be said for LeBron James and Hachimura. Jackson destroyed them for four quarters. However, the Lakers chose not to even look at alternative countermeasures. Instead of playing Wenyen Gabriel or Mo Bamba in the middle when Davis went to the bench, they decided to go small and share the duties in the middle with James and Hachimura. It went bad. They lost those 11 minutes by 12 points.
It was a close game before Ja Morant went down. Those 12 points could have cost the Lakers a win. If Morant is back for Game 2, the Lakers may have to bite the bullet and let Davis Jackson defend himself. If they don’t, they’ll see more popping stat lines from Jackson.
Bucks vs. Heat: Milwaukee needs Giannis… Duh!
The Bucks have a surprisingly strong history of winning games without their best player. Since Mike Budenholzer took over as coach, they are 32-33 in games missed by Giannis Antetokounmpo. Their 11-8 record without him this season actually gave them a better win percentage than their first-round opponents, the Miami Heat, throughout the regular season.
Milwaukee advanced to the 2021 NBA Finals, although Antetokounmpo missed the final two games of the Eastern Conference Finals. This success was even matched against him in the MVP race. If the Nuggets fall apart the moment Nikola Jokic leaves the field, why are the Bucks essentially a .500 team without Antetokounmpo?
Well — and this is shocking — turns out the Bucks probably need their two-time MVP if they plan to make any noise this postseason. Miami won 130-117 without Milwaukee’s all-purpose defensive threat patrolling the floor, and this is an offense that has only posted 105 and 109 in its play-in games. The Bucks should be fine if their best player comes back. But if he has to miss some time, Milwaukee could be in trouble.
Suns vs. Clippers: Westbrook finds a way
It was an interesting night for the Russell Westbrook doubters. His mixed postseason history has always been blamed on him and many of the things that have gone wrong for him in the past went wrong on Sunday. He shot 3 of 19 from the field and 1 of 6 from 3-point range, frequently making the kind of bad shots that annoy fans of the game. In addition, his presence affected his team’s distance. It’s a lot easier to guard everyone else when you don’t have to guard Westbrook.
Still, Westbrook undeniably had a positive impact on the Clippers’ 115-110 win. He had more than a third of his team’s assists (eight of 23), and his offensive rebound in the fourth quarter was crucial as the Clippers closed the game. However, his defense was where his influence was most felt. While Westbrook can be inattentive off the ball, his physicality makes him dangerous in the right matchups. His block on (and parry) Devin Booker in the closing seconds sealed the victory for the Clippers.
Westbrook’s weaknesses were evident in this game. He overcame them by excelling in several other areas. If the Clippers want to win with him, they have to do it often. He won’t always shoot 3 of 19, but if he defends and rebounds as hard as he did in Game 1, the Clippers have a real shot at maximizing him this postseason.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: Denver is back
On March 3, the Denver Nuggets beat the Memphis Grizzlies to effectively secure first place in the Western Conference. For the next five weeks, they did everything they could to lose it. The Nuggets had little to offer in the final quarter of the season, and it showed. They went 8-10 on the stretch, potentially losing the MVP award to Nikola Jokic and definitely losing some respect from forecasters in the league. They fell from the Western Conference favorites to either No. 2 or No. 3, depending on the book, before the playoffs began.
Well, if Game 1 of the Minnesota Series was any indication, the Nuggets are taking things seriously again. They had the biggest lead of the weekend with a 29-point win over the Timberwolves on Sunday, holding Minnesota at just 80 points, the weekend’s lowest total. They were so incredible that Jokic didn’t need to score a single point in the second half. This team still has weaknesses, but they didn’t magically deteriorate in early March. The Nuggets are still the same team that outplayed the rest of the Western Conference for most of the season. They proved that on Sunday.
76ers vs. Nets: Brooklyn can’t double Embiid
Joel Embiid torments his opponents as a scorer all season long. Not only did he win the top scorer title at 33.1 points per game, but he became the first seven-footer to win back-to-back top scorer titles since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar more than 40 years ago. In a perfect world, a defense would do everything in their power to prevent him from scoring. Well, Saturday was a good example of why the defense against Embiid really can’t do that.
The Nets frequently doubled for Embiid in their 121-101 loss to Philadelphia. So the 76ers shrug, move the ball around, and end up taking 21 of their 43 3-point shots. This is a Daryl Morey team, after all. If you look at them openly, they will take them and make them. The other worrying thing here is that doubling Embiid barely slowed him down. He finished the game with 26 points. There’s no good answer to Philadelphia’s dominant offense. If Brooklyn stays at home with shooters, Embiid could only score 46 in response. But we’ve seen exactly why doubling it is so dangerous. The 76ers are not a one-man band.
Celtics vs. Hawks: Young still has playoff woes
Trae Young’s first-round loss to the Miami Heat last season was embarrassing but almost understandable in context. True, he averaged just 15.4 points on under 32% shooting, but he was playing against a No. 1, had no co-star and many of his best teammates were either out or hampered by nagging injuries. None of that was the case in Saturday’s 112-99 loss in Atlanta. The Hawks spent three first-round picks on Dejounte Murray. They are mostly healthy. Boston is obviously an NBA Finals contender, but the Hawks had at least three days off after last week’s play-in win.
How did Young react? He scored 16 points on five-of-18 shooting against Boston’s No. 2 defense. He’s made a bit of history in the process – if you factor in previous seasons, he’s now shot 8 of 49 from 3-point range in his last seven playoff games. That’s the worst 3-point shooting streak in seven games in postseason history. Scoring in the playoffs tends to be much more difficult for small guards. Most of them compensate for the whistles that take them no longer near the basket by increasing their 3-point volume. Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard are so good from deep they can punish even the best post-season defenses. Young, it seems, is not. Without his 3s falling, the rest of his offense has suffered tremendously, and the Hawks are on life support after just Game 1.
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: Cleveland has trust issues
New York walked away with a 101-97 win in Cleveland despite being just nine minutes ahead of Jalen Brunson in the first half due to foul problems. Depth is often overlooked in the postseason, but it’s critical for the Knicks. Playing without Brunson would be a death sentence for most teams. Having sixth Man of the Year finalist Immanuel Quickley available to come on as a substitute softens that blow considerably. The Knicks have nine players they trust.
Reserve players Quickley, Isaiah Hartenstein, Obi Toppin and Josh Hart aren’t just surviving their minutes. They actively complement New York’s starting lineup, giving them the flexibility to attack whatever matchups they want. Hart, Quickley and Hartenstein even frequently close games when necessary. Each member of the New York rotation fills a specific niche.
Cleveland? Yes… not so much. They have four core players: Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. These players collectively scored 77 of their 97 points and netted 64 of their 83 field goals. Cedi Osman was the only reserve that seemed playable from afar. Dean Wade (down-14 in seven minutes), Caris LeVert (down-14 in 18 minutes), and Ricky Rubio (down-9 in six minutes) all had terrible point differences and proved largely unplayable. Isaac Okoro was completely ignored as a shooter. Cedi Osman couldn’t stay in front of Brunson.
You can survive with seven players in the postseason. Maybe even six. But basically, a basketball team always has five players on the floor. If you trust just four of them, you’re in serious trouble against a team as strong as the Knicks.
Kings vs. Warriors: Fast guards keep the beam on
Despite their small-ball identity, the Warriors actually have a strong playoff history against Star Centers. You easily beat Nikola Jokic a season ago. You’ve never lost to Anthony Davis. In fact, Tristan Thompson and Marc Gasol have been the starting centers for the two teams they’ve beaten since Steve Kerr took over as coach. They’re not exactly great scorers. Despite its size, Draymond Green can handle stellar centers.
But fast guards? They’re more of a problem. De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk combined for 70 points in the Kings’ 126-123 win. It’s a tiny sample, but the Kings posted a strong 121.7 offensive rating in the 20 minutes that Gary Payton II played. The Warriors traded for Payton for matchups like this. Stephen Curry is a good team defender, but he has never been tasked with difficult one-on-one tasks. Klay Thompson was once one of the best defensive guards in the NBA. He’s not quick enough laterally to stay with Fox or Monk.
The Warriors held Domantas Sabonis to 12 points in 5-of-17 shooting on Saturday. He’ll likely improve, but the idea that they can limit Sacramento’s All-Star is pretty reasonable. For now, it looks like the warriors have no answer for the Sacramento guards. If the Warriors are going to win this thing, it’s got to come through shootouts.