“No wars with Donald Trump.” Let’s get ready to hear this slogan. It will accompany us throughout the entire 2024 American election campaign. It may seem crude and simplistic, but we must admit that it contains a kernel of truth: major conflicts did not erupt under Trump’s presidency, Ukraine and Israel exploded under Joe Biden. Of course, for the former Republican president, this is evidence that his foreign policy was much more effective.
In the meantime, however, a sudden clearing calms Zelensky: Trump’s man in Congress, the new Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson, announces: “We will not abandon the Ukrainians, Putin must not have his way.” A reassuring message, at least in part (we will see the details), given the isolationist tendencies of the Trumpian right.
Foreign policy does not normally determine elections. There are exceptions: The Vietnam War in 1968 and the taking of American hostages at the Tehran Embassy during Iran’s Khomeinist Revolution in 1979 overwhelmed the candidacies of Lyndon Johnson and Jimmy Carter, two Democrats (the former decided not to run again) . Second was defeated by Ronald Reagan). Currently, neither Ukraine nor the Middle East have such influence on the American population that they would appear decisive. Until next November, who knows. In any case, the visibility of international crises is increasing, with implications for both sides: just look at how much Gaza is dividing the democratic left between pro-Israelis and pro-Palestinians. It is therefore likely that foreign policy will be discussed more than usual in the 2024 election campaign.
Trump maintains a large lead over the other candidates for the Republican nomination; In some polls he is slightly ahead of Joe Biden for the final duel. Therefore, we should pay attention to his positions on the major crises of today. In detail, as always, he is capable of saying things that are shocking, perhaps even absurd for part of his base: to attack Biden from time to time, he has glorified Putin and even Hamas.
But his general argument is not so far-fetched. There has been no major conflict under his presidency, nothing comparable to the global chaos that characterizes the Biden era. Putin waited until a Democrat returned to the White House to invade Ukraine, just as he invaded Crimea during the presidency of Barack Obama (to whom Trump blames other mistakes or weaknesses from Libya to Syria).
Iran and its armed wing Hamas have called Israel “9/11” under Biden. September” self-inflicted. Kim Jong-Un has resumed missile tests that threaten South Korea and Japan. Xi Jinping’s People’s Liberation Army is waging a crescendo of aggressive actions against Taiwan, the Philippines and other American allies, even coming close to downing U.S. military planes. Let’s put aside Trump’s egomania, narcissism, conceit and incompetence; The conclusion many Republicans are drawing appears to be based on fact: the world was less dangerous and unstable in the four-year period from January 2017 to December 2020. So Trump was obviously more credible.
Trumpians remember the following facts in no particular order. Kim Jong-Un may be a madman and a criminal, but in his vanity he was satisfied with the honor that Trump bestowed on him through his personal meeting at the Singapore summit, and on the other hand, he may have been afraid of Trump’s threats to destroy Korea North in a firestorm; The fact is that his provocations had a period of moderation.
Iran was punished in early January 2020 with the assassination of General Qassem Suleimani, the head of Tehran’s paramilitary forces, for daring to attack some US bases in the Middle East. The Abraham Accords, with the recognition of Israel by major Islamic countries (Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan), were implemented under the leadership of Mike Pompeo, Trump’s Secretary of State. The American withdrawal from Afghanistan was negotiated by the Trump administration in Qatar with Taliban leaders, ultimately ending a twenty-year war. Then it was Biden’s incompetent and clumsy request that turned this withdrawal from Kabul into a ruinous debacle.
Putin and Xi were kept in check by Trump with a strange mix: on the one hand, he flattered the autocrats with the respect and even admiration that a “strong man” can show his colleagues; on the other hand, with the unpredictability created by Trump’s bellicose language. (In this regard, the “mad leader theory,” already in vogue during Richard Nixon’s presidency, has been revived: we make our enemies believe that I am crazy, that I can press the nuclear button first to make them more cautious make ).
Partial reconstructions are questionable, individual facts can be interpreted differently. However, behind Trump’s foreign policy one can recognize a pragmatic doctrine that is typical of conservative thinking. Realpolitik in a world of antagonistic superpowers can advise us to treat rivals with respect, recognizing their respective spheres of influence while arming ourselves to the teeth to defend our vital interests. Trump is an isolationist, but he has spared no resources for his armed forces. He is skeptical of NATO, does not believe in the value of alliances, but has invested in his own military. The theory that “America’s enemies are thrilled when there is a Democrat in the White House” is being used to attack Biden on what was once his strength, namely his experience in the international arena. More than Ukraine, the crisis in the Middle East could damage Biden’s image as a competent leader on global issues.
However, not everything is lost for Ukraine if Trump is re-elected. The Republican Party recently emerged from a long parliamentary crisis and was able to elect the new Speaker of the House of Representatives after several failed attempts. Because of the power he wields in Washington over the agenda of parliamentary work and therefore over all budget legislation, he is an even more important position than our Speaker of the House of Representatives. The election of Mike Johnson, a die-hard Trumpian, was a victory for the former president and an affirmation of the control The Donald wields over much of the Grand Old Party. However, Johnson stated in his first interview that the war in Ukraine was one of his “big priorities.” He added: “We cannot allow Putin to have his way in Ukraine because I don’t think he would stop there and that would probably encourage China to act against Taiwan.” We are concerned. We won’t let them down.”
As a rank-and-file MP, Johnson had refused to vote for the latest aid package for Kiev, but as soon as he became Speaker of the House of Representatives, his language changed. It is also true that he does not want to launch the maxi aid package demanded by Biden, which would unite Ukraine and Israel in one spending package. Therefore, Zelensky will face greater scrutiny from the republic’s new leadership. But not given up.