“The situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than at any time since early June 1950. It may seem overly dramatic, but we believe that Kim Jong Un, like his grandfather in 1950, made the strategic decision to enter the war. “. This is what former CIA agent Robert L. Carlin and nuclear expert Siegfried S. Hecker, both at Stanford University and both protagonists of missions in North Korea, write in an article published in the North Korea analytical journal “38 North” entitled “Is Kim.” Jong Un is preparing for war?'. “We do not know when and how Kim plans to pull the trigger, but the danger – the two write in an article dated January 11 – already goes far beyond the level of routine warnings in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo about Pyongyang’s “provocations”. . . In other words, we have not seen issues of war preparation emerge as typical North Korean bluster in the North Korean media since the beginning of last year.”
Read also: Russia, Vladimir Putin signs the new decree: “Start from Alaska”
“It is complicated to raise the specter of Pyongyang's decision to seek a military solution, i.e. to warn against war, in the absence of 'concrete' evidence.” Typically, one will come across the now commonplace argument that Kim Jong Un would take such a step wouldn't dare because he knows that Washington and Seoul would destroy his regime if he did. “If this is what politicians are thinking, it is the result of a fundamental misinterpretation of Kim’s vision of history and a serious lack of imagination that could lead to catastrophe (on the part of both Kim and Washington).”
Also read: Israel has the solution for the Palestinians in Gaza: everyone on an artificial island
Per Carlin, former head of the Northeast Asia division in the US State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research, where he participated in negotiations between the US and North Korea, and Hecker, former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory and professor emeritus of Stanford University: “This Failure to understand the history of North Korean politics over the past 33 years is not just an academic problem. “Misunderstanding history has dangerous implications for understanding the meaning of what lies ahead.” They note that Washington and Seoul “cling to the belief that their alliance, backed by 'iron-clad' deterrence, will take down Kim “There is a completely understandable belief that increasing signs of our retaliatory intent will keep the North at bay, and we also hold the oft-stated belief that a counterattack will weaken the North Korean regime will be completely destroyed if the North attacks. However, clinging to these beliefs in the current situation can be fatal.” North Korea, they emphasize, “according to our estimates, has a large nuclear arsenal of 50 to 60 missile-launched warheads that can attack all of South Korea, practically all of Japan ( including Okinawa) and Guam.” If, as we suspect, Kim is convinced after decades of trying that there is no way to involve the United States, his recent words and actions point to the prospect of a military solution using it “Arsenal.” A catastrophic scenario.
Also read: North Korea scares everyone with weapons for Russia and the upgrade of its nuclear weapons