Since the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, and as Kyiv has demonstrated its resilience against Russian forces, Moscow has constantly issued new threats intended to make Westerners tremble. At the risk of becoming inaudible.
Since February 24, the war between Russia and Ukraine has also been taking place in the communications sphere. On the Ukrainian side, President Zelensky did not hesitate to enact his transformation from TV series actor to warlord, relying heavily on speeches on social media or short phrases like the now-famous “I need ammunition, not a driver”.
On the Russian side, we also decided to make big public statements. But instead of winning hearts, we aim to shake minds. Just three days after the start of the offensive, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the mobilization of the country’s “deterrence forces,” indirectly hinting at the possible use of nuclear weapons.
“An Admission to the Weakness of the Kremlin Structure”
Two months later warnings from the Kremlin follow, aimed primarily at Westerners who have formed a united front against the Russian aggressor. This Monday at the latest, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov threatened a third world war.
“The danger (of a third world war, editor’s note) is serious, real. And we mustn’t underestimate them,” he explained in a lengthy interview with Russian television.
More worryingly, he even believed that by helping Ukraine, NATO was already at war with Russia: “NATO is essentially engaged in and arming a war with Russia through an intermediary middleman. That means war.”
Indeed, for Pierre Servent, a defense and military strategy specialist invited by France Inter on Wednesday, this new threat illustrates the difficulties faced by Russian staffs.
“I think that’s an admission of the weakness of the Kremlin structure,” he said.
“If we look at the sequence over the 60 days, every time he (Vladimir Putin, ed.) takes a hard hit, bam, you have a statement about nuclear power, World War III…” continues. – he.
The Humiliation of the Moscow River
In any case, it happened after the destruction of the Russian flagship Moskva in the Black Sea. This boat, which played an important role in this strategic area, was definitely knocked out by Ukrainian “Neptune” missiles on April 13 before sinking the next day. A humiliation for Moscow, a great military achievement for Kyiv.
“The loss of the Moskva is an amazing event. A flagship. Can you imagine that compared to Putin’s pride?” says Pierre Servent.
But no way to lose face. Barely a week later, the Russian military announced the first successful test firing of a new Sarmat ICBM, dubbed Satan 2, which can carry up to 12 nuclear warheads and has an estimated maximum power of 50 megatons, or 2,000 times that of Hiroshima . Launched from Moscow, it could even reach London in 6 minutes and jam radars.
“It is truly a unique weapon that increases the military potential of our armed forces, protects Russia from external threats and makes those who try to threaten our country with wild and aggressive rhetoric think twice. ‘, has seen fit to clarify Vladimir Putin.
The Ukrainian Resistance
Destroyer missile, possibility of a third world war… So many words pointing to a global catastrophe while no military objective has yet been achieved on the ground.
When Vladimir Putin launched his offensive on Ukraine on February 24, he expected a lightning campaign. According to his first statements, by wanting to “denazify” the country, the lord of the Kremlin intended to overthrow even the existing power. Apart from the fact that the Ukrainians resisted and Volodymyr Zelenskyy never left the national territory.
The fledgling Ukrainian army even managed to prevent the capture of Kiev by pinning Russian troops north of the capital. So much so that on March 26 Moscow announced the reorganization of its offensive, focused only on Donbass, a region partially occupied by pro-Russian separatists since 2014.
“Everyone thought it was folded. And surprisingly, not only Ukraine resists, but Russia reveals huge holes in the racket,” analyzes Pierre Servent. “Putin lost 20% of his forces, I think between 25,000 and 30,000 men, that’s more casualties than in Afghanistan where it took 10 years,” he continues.
A return of talks?
So many elements that led Pentagon chief, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, to say on Monday that Kyiv could “win the war, with the right equipment.”
Maintaining a relative balance of power on the ground could also persuade Moscow to return to the negotiating table in earnest since, as Pierre Servent believes, “Putin only understands the balance of power. If he doesn’t have the pain of an opposing force, he’s not in the otherness”.
It remains to be seen whether the Ukrainians will hold out in Donbass, where the majority of Russian troops are now concentrated and where many towns fell again on Wednesday.