Press play to listen to this article
Voiced by artificial intelligence.
BUDAPEST – Viktor Orbán wants Ukraine to give up.
As Ukrainian flags fly over European capitals and Western tanks come to Ukraine’s rescue, the Hungarian prime minister openly questions Ukraine’s viability as a sovereign state. In Budapest, his government has lined the streets with anti-sanctions posters. The Hungarian State Opera is staging a production of Sergei Prokofiev’s War and Peace.
Russia, Orbán recently told an eclectic group of foreign conservatives, has already managed to turn Ukraine into an ungovernable wreck.
“It’s Afghanistan now,” Orbán said during a panel discussion detailed in The American Conservative. Vladimir Putin will not lose and time is on Russia’s side, he argued, calling Ukraine “nobody’s country”.
It’s a message almost diametrically opposed to the rhetoric of the rest of the western alliance, which pierced another red line just last week when it vowed to give Ukraine dozens of modern tanks. And it’s exacerbating tensions between Hungary and neighboring Ukraine. Orbán’s comments sparked outrage among Ukrainian officials, who said they would subpoena the Hungarian ambassador.
Back in Budapest, Orbán’s actions are seen in part as a domestic political ploy to distract attention from Hungary’s economic woes and a nod to nationalist voters. But there is also a sense among pundits that Orbán’s rhetoric is about more than just short-term politics – the Hungarian leader wants to preserve his longstanding relationship with the Kremlin.
Whatever the case, the fallout illustrates the growing rift between Orbán and the rest of his EU and NATO allies.
“Political leaders in the Hungarian government often talk about promoting peace, but – from condemning sanctions to accepting Russian ‘ceasefire’ proposals – they continue to push for policies supported by Putin,” said David Pressman , the US ambassador in Budapest.
“We join the Hungarian government’s call for peace, but these calls should be addressed to Vladimir Putin,” he said in an email statement, adding that Washington “will continue to advocate for an end to this war by stands resolutely by the victims.”
But while the majority of Western allies scrambled to offer taboo-breaking support to Ukraine, Hungary is reinforcing its stance that Kyiv should simply stop fighting.
“Our basic humanity and our moral sense,” Orbán told state radio on Friday, “demand that we do everything we can to freeze the front line, reach a ceasefire and start negotiations.”
Orbán’s goals
Experts say Orbán is not anti-Ukrainian – his rhetoric is simply an attempt to play both sides and win political points at home.
The prime minister has spent years pursuing a dual foreign policy: enjoying the benefits of EU and NATO membership while developing lucrative ties with Moscow, Beijing and other authoritarian capitals.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán | Emmanuel Dunand/AFP via Getty Images
And when the same Russian government he had courted invaded Hungary’s neighbors, Orbán condemned the invasion – but didn’t completely drop his pro-Russian stance.
Hungary is still striving for an expansion project for nuclear power plants together with the Russian company Rosatom. And Hungarian officials keep traveling to Russia to discuss energy deals. The country, which is heavily dependent on Russian gas, signed a deal for even more supplies last summer – just as others were trying to cut imports.
And while Budapest approved EU sanctions packages, Orbán tried to water down some provisions. Meanwhile, he has been running a huge anti-sanctions campaign at home, blaming Brussels for Hungary’s economic woes.
“Orbán has invested a lot” in its pro-Russian policies, said Péter Krekó, director of the Political Capital Institute, a research body specializing in Hungarian foreign policy.
“There’s an inertia that pushes him in this direction,” he said. “It appears that [the] The government is not really able to correct these mistakes.”
There is a history there too
Hungary and Ukraine have also had a long, troubled relationship over a dispute over the language rights of Hungarian speakers living in western Ukraine. Predictably, Orbán’s stance since the start of the invasion – not to mention his recent comments – has only deepened these tensions.
“Unfortunately, this is clearly Russian rhetoric,” said Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, chair of the Ukrainian parliament’s EU integration committee, when asked about Orbán’s recent remarks.
“Hungary has long been an enemy of freedom,” she said in a text message. “We are surprised,” she added, that Hungarian statements and activities “have not yet received an appropriate internal response [the] EU and NATO.”
The prime minister’s critics were quick to distance themselves from the government’s actions towards Ukraine, arguing that Orbán does not represent all Hungarians.
“Orbán’s comment is beyond shameful,” said Hungarian MEP Katalin Cseh, who recently returned from a trip to Kyiv with other members of the opposition Momentum party.
Ukraine, she said, is “a country of courageous freedom fighters and fellow Europeans who deserve our utmost respect.”
The Hungarian government did not respond to requests for comment. However, the Hungarian Foreign Ministry insisted that the government had good intentions.
In response to Kiev’s decision to summon its ambassador, the ministry told a pro-government outlet that the war is causing deaths and turning parts of Ukraine “into a wasteland.”
“Therefore,” according to the ministry, “Hungary wants peace and an immediate ceasefire rather than arms deliveries.”
Say what he thinks, others won’t
According to experts, part of the prime minister’s rhetoric on Ukraine stems from an early misjudgment of the trajectory of the conflict.
“The government was betting on a quick solution to the conflict, hoping that Hungary would benefit from maintaining its ties with Russia,” said Zselyke Csaky, a fellow at the European University Institute.
“Some obviously thought that Hungary could become a kind of ‘bridge’ between Russia and the rest of Europe and meanwhile enjoy trade and other benefits,” she said, adding that now “it is clear that this will not happen.” .
Hungarian MEP Katalin Cseh | Julien Warnand/EFE via EPO
Hungarians, who know the prime minister well personally, say part of the explanation for Orbán’s controversial remarks is that the longtime politician likes to speak out on issues he believes other leaders are too shy about to address them.
“I think he’s doing this because he believes that many Europeans actually think that way – and he expects that Europe will ultimately not side with Ukraine,” said Zsuzsanna Szelényi, a member of Orbán’s Fidesz party in the early 1990s was and now is a critic of the government.
In his discussion with foreign conservatives, Orbán alluded to his belief that some politicians might secretly agree with him.
“Germans suffer because they know what is in their national interest, but they cannot say it,” he argued.
But one also senses in Budapest that Orbán often criticizes the West’s reaction to the war, because business circles close to the party still benefit from economic ties to Moscow – and because he wants to strengthen his arguments against sanctions.
The prime minister is “essentially trying to create a justification for opposing further sanctions that could actually begin to affect his own ties with Moscow,” said Zsuzsanna Végh, a visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund.
Orbán’s rhetoric is also well received by some of his constituency.
In Hungary’s nationalist history, “there’s a tradition of anti-Western sentiment, and you also have a tradition of anti-Russian sentiment,” Political Capital’s Krekó said.
Now, he added, the anti-Western approach is “trumping” anti-Russian sentiment.
But the always pragmatic Orbán is obviously trying to keep all options open.
Szelényi, who recently wrote a book on Orbán’s “tainted” democracy, pointed out that the prime minister has also made negative comments about Russia.
Orbán, she said, is “basically creating room for maneuver in this crisis.”