With the announcement of the Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2024 next Tuesday, The Athletic brought together three of its most respected writers – Jayson Stark, Ken Rosenthal and Peter Gammons – to discuss the vote and take a look at the future of the Hall of Fame and of their candidates to throw in the next few years. Stark and Gammons are both recipients of the BBWAA Career Excellence Award, the highest honor for baseball writers, and are recognized in a permanent exhibit in the Hall of Fame itself.
Todd Helton received only 16.5 percent of the vote in his first year of election. It now looks like he will be elected – next year, if not this year. We've recently seen similarly meteoric rises from Scott Rolen, Larry Walker, Mike Mussina and others. Why do you think this is? And is there a candidate on this ballot in the 10 to 20 percent range who could be next in line for election?
Jayson Stark: Can I say that I think there is more than one answer?
First of all, all of these guys debuted in years when the ballot was more crowded than my dishwasher. In Helton's first year (2019), there were seven future Hall of Famers on the ballot…plus Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling…plus two more men we might soon vote for, Billy Wagner and Andruw Jones. Of course, as the skies cleared, there was more room for players like Helton to take off.
Secondly, we don't vote like we used to! I wrote about this in my election column. I'll elaborate on this in my answer to the next question. We have more player evaluation tools than ever before – and we use them.
Third, does voting shaming on social media lead to more groupthink? I hate to think the answer is “yes”…but that answer is obviously “yes.”
Finally, I only see one player who was under 20 percent last year who has a chance of being selected one day (and not a good chance): Jimmy Rollins…if Chase Utley's promotion succeeds, this ballot brings his double-play partner somehow with itself. But so far I haven't seen any signs of it.
Ken Rosenthal: I know it drives some fans crazy to see some players gain traction the way Helton and others have in recent years. The question these fans are asking: A retired player's stats don't change, so why do his vote totals change? – is completely valid. But there are also perfectly valid explanations.
The crowded polling stations of the 2010s are one of the reasons certain players are experiencing meteoric rises. As the eligibility of certain candidates expired — think Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling after the 2022 election — spots became available for others. Voters responded accordingly, adding players to their ballots.
The bigger reason for these patterns lies in something less tangible and harder to explain: voters' changing perspectives over time. As a voter, I try to keep an open mind and give my ballot a new look each year. A fixed outlook is counterproductive, especially at a time when advanced metrics allow us to potentially look at players differently than when they were active.
Helton is an example of a player I didn't initially vote for. My first vote for him was in 2021, his third year in office. And the crowded ballot was only part of the reason. Like many voters, I wasn't sure about a hitter who spent his entire career playing his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. But as I researched the matter further, I found that playing at height was a double-edged sword. It tires out the players. This also makes them more susceptible to impacts from moving differently on the road.
Appreciation for Bert Blyleven, a pitcher elected on his second-to-last try in 2011, grew in part because the rise of sabermetrics gave voters a different understanding of his professional achievements. That was a positive development. Flexibility in thinking is important. It's okay for voters to change their minds.
Ham: I don't see a jump similar to Helton's increase from his starting point of 16.5 percent. I believe the more voters think about Carlos Beltran's talents in the midfield, the more we will see his overall results increase. His 46.5 percent start to 2023 was a strong starting point, his offensive and defensive qualities are strong for his position, and the more time passes since the 2017 Astros scandal, the less emotions may be in play when the writers make their ballots fill out.
Chase Utley was known for highlighting his teammates in each of his major league appearances. (L Redkoles/Getty Images)
The case of Chase Utley may take several years of pure analysis vs. leadership debates, but since he is in his mid-40s in his first year on the ballot, he comes to the fourth or fifth ballot, the testimonials of so many former teammates who witnessed his commitment to victory have should provide information. His plaque in Cooperstown would begin with a sentence like this: “Teams that wanted to win tried to find a way to get Chase Utley on their team, because every day of his career, all he cared about was winning.”
It's been almost 50 years since the authors picked a player with fewer than 2,000 hits. But we saw plenty of support for both Andruw Jones (1,933 hits) and Chase Utley (1,885) in Ryan Thibodaux's Hall of Fame tracker. What does this tell us about the way modern voters view players?
Strong: Back in, say, 1993, no voter would have thought for 30 seconds about voting for a man in the 1800-Hits Club. But just now: It's no longer the year 1993.
I spent much of my election column this week laying out the evolution of my own thinking. But now I'll try to explain it differently.
In 1993, the tools available to voters to evaluate Hall of Famers seemed so primitive today: hits…wins…batting average…ERA, not to mention home runs and RBIs…all standards that haven't been followed much since 1936 had changed. So of course these elections revolved around those world-famous magic numbers. What other telling numbers did these voters even have?
Today, however, we can look at our sport from a completely different perspective: Wins Above Replacement and JAWS allow us to measure everything players have done on the field, including what their peak performance was. And we have now entered an era in which voters seem to place more value on quota statistics than on count statistics. Ask Larry Walker. Ask Edgar Martinez.
One could argue that we need more balance. One could argue that there is too much focus on WAR and not enough nuanced conversations about what WAR tells us and what it doesn't and how we should consider the other things we've learned about baseball throughout our years.
But as a voter, I still prefer living in this world than the world of 1993. It allows us to see greatness in ways we would have missed before. And what's the downside to it?
Rosenthal: It shows us that voters are showing a greater understanding that Hall of Fame candidates come in different forms and respond to changing norms in the game. My only concern is lowering the bar. The inevitable selections of players with fewer than 2,000 hits could boost the chances of others who have had shorter careers but don't earn quite as much.
I attach great importance to longevity. I prefer at least 10 years of dominance over shorter peaks. But here too I never want to be rigid. I mainly voted for Jones because he was the best defensive midfielder of his era, and for Utley because he was a brilliant all-round player during a hugely successful period for his team.
A fan might ask, “If you're voting for Utley, why not David Wright?” And what about Dustin Pedroia, who will be on the ballot for the first time next year?” Such questions are completely valid. I would argue that Utley is the best of the three, as evidenced by his fWAR of 61.6, compared to 51.2 for Wright and 44.5 for Pedroia. But WAR is only one measure. And if you told me that Wright meant as much to the Mets and Pedroia to the Red Sox as Utley meant to the Phillies, I might concede that point.
The increased injury rate resulting from the emphasis on strength in all phases of the game results in shorter careers. We must take this reality into account, even if it makes certain decisions more difficult.
Bring on the killers under 2,000. At least the best of them.
Ham: This is about players who did something extraordinary to help their teams – and teammates – to a World Series ring. As we watched Alan Trammell and players from the 1970s and 1980s speak in Cooperstown, they were raised in a different game with different approaches at the plate and different rewards.
Carl and Mike Yastrzemski illustrate this divide: Mike Yastrzemski had a .330 on-base percentage and a 113 OPS last season, but when he called his grandfather – whose care for this grandson includes staying awake every night to stay and watch West Coast games – On his birthday, Carl picked up the phone and immediately said, “Stop taking so many pitches.” Keep in mind that the elder Yastrzemski only managed six strikeouts against none other than Nolan Ryan and in 14 walks in 50 at-bats. In Carl's rookie season in 1961, MLB averages were a 13.6 percent strikeout rate and 9 percent walk rate, as opposed to a 22.7 percent strikeout rate and 8.6 percent walk rate on the year 2023.
Instead of judging based on their hit numbers, look at how often they were on base. Joey Votto is one of the greatest hitters of the last quarter century, totaling 2,135 hits – but he also has 1,365 walks and a career on-base percentage of .409. Batting average is an additional value compared to OBP. While we realize there is no one-size-fits-all approach to success, the game is of course evolving again: in the modern game, there are many teams that emphasize contact, putting the ball in play and seeing runners circling the bases Horses on a carousel. Bobby Witt Jr. and Jackson Holliday will have 2,000 hits before their careers are over. Maybe even 3,000.
Next year is another fascinating election. Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, Félix Hernández and Dustin Pedroia are all making their electoral debuts. How many of these four will be elected one day?
Strong: We've been voting for the Hall of Fame for nine decades now. In one of these centuries, someone has to become the first position player to be elected unanimously, right? Why shouldn't Ichiro be that someone? If 10 Gold Gloves, nearly 3,100 hits (plus another 1,278 in Japan), 500 steals and a daily double aren't enough to win MVP/Rookie of the Year, I guess we're hopeless.
I think Sabathia will step in. Maybe in his first year of election. Almost certainly until his second. The funny thing about CC is that the aura doesn't quite match his numbers. You could win a lot of cash bets, such as who has a better career ERA+: CC (116) or Mark Buehrle (117). But in 2006-12, CC Sabathia had a level of dominance that Bührle (and another competitor, Andy Pettitte) can't match: 122-57, with a Cy Young Award, five straight top-five finishes and an ERA+ of 140. So he's there!
CC Sabathia's dominant performance with the Brewers strengthens his candidacy. (Julie Jacobson/Associated Press)
Speaking of massive peaks, King Félix has a funny case of large peaks himself. Check out his seven incredibly great seasons from 2009 to 2015: 104-65, a Cy Young Award, two more top-2 Cy Young finishes, and a 136 ERA+. Unfortunately, he wasn't the same after that. But he has some Johan Santana-style appeal, barring a longer career. It is also a litmus test for how we will view modern aces in the future. So it wouldn't shock me if he were elected at some point.
Then there's Pedroia, which will be another test for the We Don't Care audience of around 2,000 hits. He's got a little bit of Utley in him and a lot of David Wright. Great summit. Wanted his teams to win. Huge presence. Apparently on a Hall of Fame track until injuries struck. I still don't think he'll make it. But I hope he hangs around the ballot like Wright did while we ponder how much we care (or don't care) about what we once cared about most – those pesky count numbers.
Rosenthal: I'll take three: Ichiro, Sabathia and maybe Hernández.
In my opinion, Ichiro should be unanimous. He arrived in the majors at age 27 and still had 3,089 hits, including an astonishing 2,244 in his first ten seasons. He was a Rookie of the Year, an MVP, a 10-time All-Star and a 10-time Gold Glove winner. End of discussion.
Sabathia is more difficult. He was certainly one of the dominant pitchers of his era, but his career ERA was just 16 percent above the league average. Among the final four starting players chosen by the writers, Pedro Martinez was 54 percent above league average, Randy Johnson was 35 percent, Roy Halladay was 31 percent and Mike Mussina was 23 percent. On paper, Sabathia's career is similar to that of his former Yankees teammate Andy Pettitte, who has yet to receive more than 17 percent of the vote in five tries. The difference, at least in perception, is that CC was more of an ace. If he gets elected quickly, voters may begin to view Pettitte as more viable.
Hernández is an interesting case. From 2006 to 2015, he won a Cy Young Award and finished in the top eight five more times. His ERA during this period was 27 percent above the league average. But he also threw the most innings of any pitcher in the majors, and eventually he faded and his career ended with 33. Should he be blamed for the Mariners riding him too hard?
We can ask a similar question about Pedroia: Is it his fault that his career was never the same after Manny Machado swooped on him in April 2017 and forced him to retire at 35? The answer to that is clearly no. The bigger question is whether his past performance will get him into the Hall of Fame.
Ham: In the spring of 2016, the Marlins had Don Mattingly as manager, Barry Bonds as hitting coach and 43-year-old Ichiro Suzuki as outfielder. The mornings in the batting cage in Jupiter, Florida were fascinating, especially the relationship between Bonds and Ichiro. One morning, Bonds said. “I've never seen anyone score like him, he's great. He looks like he could fall forward and still hit a ball into the gap in left midfield.”
At this point in his career, I never thought Ichiro wouldn't make the Hall of Fame. When Ted Simmons first entered the ballot, it honestly never occurred to me that he wouldn't be a first-ballot HOFer. Fortunately and rightly, he was ultimately chosen by a veteran committee, but some elements that seem clear to those of us who have watched these players may have faded with time. There are players on the 2025 ballot — Ichiro, Sabathia, Hernández and Pedroia — who evoked strong feelings among home fans and writers as they pushed for their plaques to hang on the walls in Cooperstown. Of course, that doesn't mean they'll all get in.
Ichiro was a tireless artist player. Watch him play—the way he slanted to make balls fly, the speed at which he made throws, the angles at which he turned the bases, the joy with which he competed—and it's easy to imagine him in Cooperstown. But as many polled Ichiro in spring training in 2001, the 107 OPS+ might raise some questions among some voters who favor dominance in this analysis. However, after he was named to the 2006 World Baseball Classic all-tournament team, I asked him what language he would give his Hall of Fame acceptance speech in, to which he replied, “Spanish.”
Ichiro's MLB career is even more impressive considering it began at the age of 27. (Darren Yamashita/USA Today)
Sabathia won 251 games, and whether you win them or not, that's more than Hall of Famers Whitey Ford, Juan Marichal and Waite Hoyt. Think back to 2008, when the Brewers acquired him from Cleveland and Sabathia started three straight games on three days' rest over the last two weeks to get the Brewers to the playoffs. His agents tried to save him from himself, but Sabathia refused to retire, made every start, the Brewers won two of them and made the playoffs.
Anyone who was ever around the Red Sox appreciated that Dustin Pedroia was the leader of a group that won three World Series since his rookie days. He was rookie of the year, MVP, won four Gold Gloves and was a lifetime hit. 299 with an OPS+ of 113 and did it all with an energy, bravado and clubhouse presence that was both intense and hilarious. But over the years, that intensity was felt most clearly on his knees as he got going like a tennis player preparing on every court; however, he was able to play 114 games in his final three seasons. In the end, he only had ten seasons with over 100 games played, and we all wonder what could have been if injuries hadn't affected his longevity.
At Hernández's peak – the 2009-15 season in which he won 104 games with a 2.83 ERA for the Mariners – the right-hander was the poster boy for those fighting for ratings based on multiple stats, not just games won. He won a Cy Young Award and finished in the top 10 in six of those seven years. But 151 career wins won't get him on the writers' ballot in Cooperstown.
(Top photo by Helton: Doug Pensinger / Getty Images)