EH Bildus candidate for Lehendakari, Pello Otxandiano, and Arnaldo Otegi, general coordinator of the party, at a party event on December 17 in Bilbao.H.Bilbao / Europa Press (Europa Press)
The Basque regional elections scheduled for April between the Galician regional elections in February and the European elections in June will be dominated by the fight for the supremacy of the Basque nationalist camp between the PNV and EH Bildu. The expectation of this unprecedented dispute is a direct result of the local and regional elections last May and the parliamentary elections in July, in which the nationalist left was practically linked to traditional nationalism for the first time. However, expectations of a turn in the political cycle, understood as a change of government, are practically discarded to the extent that the PSE, the third party that foreseeably holds the key to the government, has already announced that it will not support the executive branch of EH-Bildu , but to the public transport. The electoral rivalry between the two Basque nationalist partners of the Sánchez government will not affect the stability of the central executive.
The PNV's poor performance in the spring and summer municipal, provincial and general elections, in which it was overtaken by the nationalist left for the first time in its history, sparked an internal turmoil that led to the replacement of Iñigo Urkullu, lehendakari during the last three terms, by Imanol Pradales as a candidate for the next Basque elections. With this movement, the PNV has brought about a generational change in order to avoid the change in the political cycle proclaimed by its rival in the nationalist camp, EH Bildu. With Pradales, a young professional well connected to business and academia and with strong Peneuvist roots, the PNV is trying to offer a modern image and thereby stop the erosion of its government caused by the rapid decline of the Basque public Services are questioned. especially due to the previously prestigious public health following the Covid epidemic and the tensions with the ELA-STV union, as well as its loss of influence in the young vote.
This movement shaped that of EH Bildu, which emerged immediately afterwards. For the next Basque elections, EH Bildu had planned a candidate for the transitional Lehendakari, such as Laura Mintegi and Maialen Iriarte, while Arnaldo Otegi, who was expected to withdraw from the candidacy, continued to serve as general coordinator of the Abertzale coalition for two more years. But the PNV's generational change has led EH Bildu to prematurely launch Pello Otxandiano, his young promise – an engineer specializing in public policy with strong nationalist roots who was brought into the coalition after the end of terrorism – who will do so The idea is to compete in their calculations with the victory expectations for 2028.
EH Bildu pragmatically expects that she will not govern Euskadi after these elections. Your goal for April is to further increase and decrease the distances to public transport, as shown by the surveys known so far, which should be read with caution, but show trends. The Basque sociometer in December gives EH-Bildu a significant growth, but without surpassing the PNV, which suffers a significant decline. Specifically, the Abertzales increased from 21 to 24 and 25 seats, respectively, while the PNV fell from 31 to 27 and 28, respectively. An electoral forecast that the party interprets as reasonable since, on the one hand, it assumes that despite the change of image, the PNV It will suffer attrition, although it is very difficult for EH-Bildu to win the 10 seats that the Peneuvistas won in 2020 in a single one who won the regional election. On the other hand, it is confident of growing at the expense of Podemos. The latest polls predict a decline from 6 to 3 seats for this party, due to internal conflicts with Sumar and the lack of definition of its candidacy due to the crisis in Galicia. In addition to having a strong organizational structure, EH-Bildu continues to emphasize its social programs with the aim of opening up to new young and non-nationalist sectors, which hurts Podemos.
Likewise, EH Bildu has internalized the statement of the PSE – the party that will predictably have the key to deciding who governs – that it will not allow its presence in the Basque government, reiterated by its Secretary General Eneko Andueza after the support of The Navarrese Socialists voted for the nationalist candidate Joseba Asiron in the Pamplona City Council. The PSE, which reiterates the exceptional nature of the Pamplona case due to the mismanagement of the UPN, believes that in addition to the ethical arguments – the hard core of EH Bildu is still facing self-criticism because of its previous complicity with ETA – there are many other arguments There is still a way for its cadres to overcome the drastic methods typical of a radical organization and to implement reformist measures in the institutions. A deficiency that led to him losing the provincial council of Gipuzkoa and mayor of San Sebastián in 2015.
The PNV candidate for Lehendakari Imanol Pradales (left) with the party's president, Andoni Ortuzar, in Bizkaia last November. Luis Tejido (EFE)
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The PSE claims its role as a broker of the “central track” of Basque politics after ten years of coalition government with the PNV and believes that this is still valid. The government coalition of nationalists and non-nationalists agreed between Lehendakari Urkullu and the then general secretary of the PSE, Idoia Mendia, prevented Euskadi from entering into the dynamics of Catalonia, the pact between nationalists and the conflict with the non-nationalists in the seizure with the process. After the next Basque elections, there are many possibilities that the governing agreement with the new leaders, the Peneuvista Pradales and the socialist Andueza, will be renewed. The polls show a slight improvement for the PSE – from 10 to 11 or 12 seats – which would partially offset the PNV's hypothetical loss. The PSE assures that Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez sees the repetition of the coalition positively and, despite the electoral rivalry between the PNV and EH Bildu, believes that it will not affect the stability of the central executive. The election campaign did not stop the PNV from supporting EH Bildu's candidate in Pamplona. The rejection of the radical PP-Vox-UPN bloc unites them.
The current Basque PP and its new candidate Javier de Andrés follow the radical discourse of the center. The loose verses of the Basque PP, such as Borja Sémper and Javier Maroto, have been swallowed up by the tough speech of Genoa, which creates the expectation for the PNV to achieve a moderate vote for the PP and even more with the expectation of growth from EH Bildu. The Sociometer grants the Basque PP the six seats it obtained in the last legislative period with Ciudadanos, as well as the acquisition of the only Basque parliamentarian from Vox.
Even if the possibility of a change of government and cycle is not among the most likely hypotheses, the next Basque elections will serve to check whether the new trends revealed by the spring and summer elections are confirmed and in which direction they are heading. It will also be interesting to observe the appeal of generational change and new candidates for Lehendakari as all parties – with the only doubt being Sumar and Podemos – have changed their headliners.
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