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The NFL playoffs are here. Are we in for a Super Bowl showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens, or will one of the teams playing on Wild Card Weekend pull off an upset en route to the title?
Jeff Howe breaks down each of this weekend's six matchups before The Athletic's projection model, created by Austin Mock, reveals each team's chances of winning the Super Bowl.
AFC
No. 2 Buffalo Bills vs. No. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bills are the hottest team in the league and are on a five-game winning streak in the postseason. What's impressive is that three of those wins (Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins) came against playoff teams. Their finale against the Dolphins was a perfect summation of the Bills season. They are capable of looking as ferocious as any team in the NFL, but they also struggle through periods where they can't stop making mistakes.
The Steelers fell to 7-7 and a No. 10 seed in Week 15 after losing three straight games to non-playoff opponents. But they finished the season with a three-game winning streak and got the help they needed to sneak into the playoffs. Now, if they manage to pull off an upset, the Steelers could have a chance to beat the hated Ravens for the third time this season – a win in this situation would make the Ravens immediately regret losing their starters To have spared the final.
The Steelers are 2-1 in the playoffs against the Bills, but have not advanced in the postseason in 28 years.
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2024 NFL Wild Card Odds: Bills and Cowboys are big favorites, Browns and Eagles are favorites away from home
No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs vs. No. 6 Miami Dolphins
The league is close to getting its answer to the Chiefs, who endured their most difficult season in years, going 3-4 in Patrick Mahomes' last seven starts. Can Mahomes and a mistake-prone supporting cast break through in the playoffs and prove all the concerns and criticism were unnecessary? Or will a season's worth of mistakes continue to haunt them in the playoffs, ending their chance at a Super Bowl repeat?
The Chiefs have the upper hand in their duel with the Dolphins, who have a five-game losing streak in the playoffs since 2000. The Dolphins also ended the regular season trailing by two games against the AFC's top two seeds. They lost 21-14 to the Chiefs in Week 9 in Germany. It's time for the Dolphins to beat top teams with more consistency to be considered an AFC contender.
No. 4 Houston Texans vs. No. 5 Cleveland Browns
This should be a great matchup between teams led by the two favorites for Coach of the Year. The Texans won the AFC South title in DeMeco Ryans' first season at the helm, and NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite CJ Stroud deserves a lot of credit. The quarterback completed 63.9 percent of his passes for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns and just five interceptions in 15 games.
Browns coach Kevin Stefanski got his team to the postseason despite starting five quarterbacks, and newcomer Joe Flacco is in a statistical turmoil. The 38-year-old has won four of his five starts and has 1,616 yards, 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Flacco's numbers were superior to Deshaun Watson's, and it's fair to wonder if the Browns would rethink their quarterback situation next season if they make the playoffs.
The Browns beat the Texans 36-22 in Week 16, but Stroud was sidelined with a concussion.
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What we learned in NFL Week 18: Bills complete turnaround, Jaguars complete collapse
NFC
No. 2 Dallas Cowboys vs. No. 7 Green Bay Packers
The Cowboys have looked like a juggernaut at times, and they are undefeated at home. However, there are significant concerns if they don't win by a lopsided margin. They are 3-2 in one-possession games this season, and they have only won twice all season when trailing at any point after the first quarter. The Packers have a 6-5 record in one-possession games this season, so they are used to close matchups. They have also won five of their last six games by one possession.
Quarterback Jordan Love will make his playoff debut for the Packers, who have lost three of their last four postseason games with Aaron Rodgers. This is already a moral victory for Green Bay, as it is ahead of schedule in its post-Rodgers rebuild.
The teams have split their eight playoff meetings, but the Packers have won the last two meetings since the 2014 season.
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Odds for the Super Bowl 2024: The 49ers go into the playoffs as favorites, ahead of the Ravens
No. 3 Detroit Lions vs. No. 6 Los Angeles Rams
The Lions are hosting a playoff game for the first time in 30 years and are trying to win a postseason contest for the first time in 32 years. With no good deed going unpunished, Lions fans must now face off against one of the most beloved figures in franchise history with quarterback Matthew Stafford returning to town.
Stafford and the Rams are back in the playoffs after suffering the worst record in history (5-12) for a defending Super Bowl champion. Rams coach Sean McVay found his spark again and doubled the Rams' win total compared to last season.
The Lions and Rams have played just once since the Jared Goff-Stafford trade, with the Rams going 28-19 in 2021.
No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. No. 5 Philadelphia Eagles
These teams have moved in opposite directions. Philly, the reigning NFC champions, has lost five of its last six games, with its only win during that time coming against the New York Giants. It doesn't help that quarterback Jalen Hurts (dislocated finger) and wide receiver AJ Brown (knee) were injured Sunday against the Giants, while wideout Devonta Smith (ankle) missed the finale.
Meanwhile, the Bucs won five of six games to claim their third straight NFC South title. Tampa Bay has only eliminated one playoff team (Packers) in that time, but the Bucs have mastered the art of winning ugly. These teams have split their four playoff meetings since 2000, but the Bucs have won the last two. The Eagles won their regular season game in Week 3 25-11.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield is making his third career playoff start after going 1-1 with the Browns in the 2020 postseason, and he'll face a Matt Patricia-led defense that hasn't offered much resistance of late .