We were afraid of the chainsaw, dollarization, blowing up the central bank and selling organs. And now it sometimes seems that the scariest thing about Javier Milei is that he will be some Macri – or a Menem or a Videla.
Mr. Javier Gerardo Milei is already His Excellency President of the Argentine Republic. The handover ceremony had the ephemeral pomp that these soaps usually have: a man happy because he's starting, a man bitter because he'll never start. This sad verse from Calamaro, “Everything that ends, ends badly,” must have been written for the American governments: in the last 18 elections, the ruling party won only once – and unfortunately that was in Paraguay.
As he assumed, he had to speak, and instead of doing so in front of representatives, senators and governors, supposed representatives of the country, he did so in front of a few thousand supporters in Congress Plaza. His speech was broadcast on public television and radio, which he wants to privatize, and he began by saying that “today a new era begins in Argentina” – and he stuck with the word era, era, era, era. But as soon as he could, he threw himself into his supposed area of knowledge, economics. To say that he received an enormous inheritance, the worst in history, and to unleash a cataract of terrible numbers – always in the billions – and to involve them in some very dubious multiplications, thus ending up predicting inflation of 15,000% per year year, “which we will fight with all our might to eradicate,” he said literally.
And that adaptation is inevitable and cannot be gradual, but can be a shock model all at once. The core of his politics now seems to be to threaten a future so bleak that a black future would be his great triumph. He foreshadows months of brutal economic suffering and that “this will of course have a negative impact on activity levels, employment, real wages and the number of poor and needy,” he said. But there will be “a light at the end of the road,” he concluded, once again confusing the metaphor.
Or lied when he repeated for the umpteenth time that “Argentina was the first world power at the beginning of the 20th century,” an absolutely false fact. Or when he said that “Argentina has become a bloodbath in terms of security” and spoke of a country with five murders per 100,000 inhabitants per year, below the world average, well below the United States, Chile or Uruguay – and the public or People shouted “police, police”.
And of course he blamed the state for the entire current catastrophe, avoiding another important fact: Argentina has had three privatizing governments in the last half century: that of the military (1976-83), that of Carlos Menem (1989). -99) and Macris (2015-19). In other words, for almost half of this half-century the country was run by neoliberals – who in fact took far more forceful and influential actions than the statists. But reality is one thing and discourse is another, and the current discourse is that the only way to solve Argentina's problems is to do again – with greater fury – the same thing that was done in 1976, 1989, 2015 At that time there were disasters.
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The speech was definitely a little anecdote. Now it's important to know what Mr. Milei will do with his government. First, his team: Of his ten ministers, five were senior Macri officials and four were from Menem's government. They are pure “caste”, the much hated caste. Only the chancellor has not previously held public office and all of them – and their close subordinates – have master's degrees in business administration from private universities; Most worked for banks and large investment funds at some point. Meanwhile, the peculiar characters that had assembled the winning party at the start – and that gave it the aura between delirium and innovation that helped it so much – remained uncharged. The only one who is somewhat out of place among former civil servants and former business leaders is a certain Javier Milei. Everything will be in these months to see who manages to use who. If the caste he denounced so much manipulates him, if he manages to get rid of them, if he plans to do so.
It doesn't look like that, because now, in addition to his cabinet, the measures he would take would make his election campaign an excellent farce. (And it would be a relief, because then the central bank wouldn't be dollarized or blown up, weapons wouldn't be released, or human organs would be sold). But in this case, the result would be a grand delusion: that one man, in order to impose the fourth neoliberal incarnation – after Videla, Menem and Macri – has sent millions on board with the chainsaw story, even though he will do exactly that, consolidating power those who have always had power in Argentina.
If so, we are left with a useless debate: Did he plan it from the first moment or did circumstances force it on him? Or even: if it was planned, did he plan it himself or was it just part of a much more complex machine?
It's another anecdotal debate. Now the future is moving forward with all its might. To see it, a minor fact comes into play: it seems certain that during his recent visit to Washington, Milei confirmed the purchase of 24 F-16 fighter jets from the United States. For a project whose great promise is to cut public spending, the measure is strange.
But we still lack data. The new administration had announced that it would pass its omnibus bill with the vast majority of economic measures this Monday the 11th, the first day of the extraordinary sessions of Congress, but now it is said that it will take a few more days .
There are now – roughly speaking – three major sectors that would promote and celebrate Mr. Milei’s good performance.
The main reason is the economic power and its major channels: the media that weeks ago was afraid of his fears and now sees him taller and blonder and sees the possibility of saving the country in danger. They have discovered a “pragmatic mileism” that, after the cleansing of the new president's image and concessions, allows them to see him as one of their own, as the one who could benefit them with his economic measures and the permissiveness of an uncontrolled market.
Then there is the hard core of the young milleistas, the chainsaw enthusiasts who wanted to destroy everything for good reasons. And finally, there are many millions of Argentines who have nothing very for or very against Milei, except the proof that he is now the one in charge and the hope that if they do well, his government will do well . My goodness.
But all three sectors could experience very annoying breakers. Businessmen, when the economic situation of “efforts and sacrifices” that Milei promises turns against them and inflation reduces consumption even further and they lose public contracts and it is not enough for them to lay off employees and open up exports makes it sink a little more.
The chainsaws as they discover that their idol will strengthen the structures that make life possible for them, rather than destroying it. What will happen when the Mileist boys – those much-vaunted young people from the lower and lower middle classes, under 30, with no formal work – see that the lion that wanted to devour the world with its teeth turns into a Macri with long ones hair transformed? and determination? How long will they wait quietly for the righteous fury that the angry man called out to them to be unleashed? How long will the patience of those who voted for the most furious impatience last?
And of course there remains the quietest, deepest disappointment of the millions who are waiting for something, because it is always better to wait for something when they find that without subsidies they cannot pay for water, electricity or transport or simply lose their job or help. that they were allowed to eat from time to time.
All of these variables are open and will be played out in the coming months. Many Argentines – their new president has already announced this – will suffer greatly. Once again, it depends on how much they want and can endure, how much they want and can wait. President Milei has already said it: a new era has begun for Argentina – and it is so similar to those before.
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