The gap at the national level between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen in the second round of this year’s presidential election is significantly smaller than in 2017: 16 to 32 points. And the RN candidate owes it in particular to her results achieved in the overseas territories. Marine Le Pen received almost 61% of the votes in Martinique and Guyana and almost 70% in Guadeloupe. That’s two to three times more than five years ago when she was defeated.
When asked by Le Parisien, Justin Daniel, a professor of political science at the University of the West Indies, said he was even “a little surprised” because he “expected a tightening rather than such a turnaround”.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon had put himself well ahead in the first ballot in these overseas territories, but his call “not to give the far right a voice” seems to have gone unheeded there. Turnout is only slightly lower than five years ago, so this RN value cannot really be explained by fewer voters. The reasons are to be found elsewhere.
Purchasing power, priority of Marine Le Pen
The context, first. The far-right party has been trying to improve its overseas results for several years. In the 2019 European elections, he even achieved historic highs there.
“Voting for this party goes beyond the mere expression of a sanction. It also translates part of the liability to the speeches and the positions that are the hallmark of the RN “, then instructed us the political scientist Yvan Combeau, who specializes overseas, who pointed to “the intensity of the social issues (power of purchase, salary, housing )” in these areas, which are poorer than the French average. Purchasing power, however, was the main axis of Marine Le Pen’s campaign.
However, Justin Daniel sees it “above all as a vote against Macron and not a vote for Marine Le Pen, and the best proof of this is Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s high score in the first round”.
It is true that the past five years have led to numerous tensions between these areas, located 7000 km from mainland France, and the government. This was particularly noticeable during the Covid pandemic. These West Indian areas are twice as unvaccinated as the mainland, largely because there is very high suspicion of the bite. The compulsory vaccination of nursing staff, coupled with the introduction of the health passport, led to demonstrations on site, some of which were very violent.
“The state does not measure the stakes”
Gilles Belmo, director of the Martinique Housing Information Agency (ADIL), points out, among other things, “the possible cessation of the experiment on chlordecone”, this pesticide that has contaminated more than 90% of the adult population in Guadeloupe and Martinique mistrust of the state. “Residents have the impression that the state doesn’t measure up to what affects them,” says Justin Daniel.
André Rougé, Marine Le Pen’s Overseas spokesman, assessed to RCI a month before the election that Emmanuel Macron was “undoubtedly the main culprit given his lack of interest in the main issues that have been stirring overseas in recent years: Chlordecone or the unacceptable lack of access to water for a large part of the population from the Antilles to Mayotte”.