Since the end of September, Ukrainian troops have been conducting a successful counteroffensive in the Kharkov, Donetsk, Lugansk and Kherson regions. Tensions are mounting in the Kremlin and concerns are growing around the world over the possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia, which Vladimir Putin has been threatening to use since the start of the war in Ukraine.
On October 3, British newspaper The Times, citing NATO sources, reported that Russia was preparing to test nuclear weapons in the Black Sea. A video has surfaced online showing a Russian military train heading towards the Ukrainian border, allegedly in contact with the 12th Main Directorate of the Russian Defense Ministry, which is responsible for the country’s nuclear arsenal.
Nuclear escalation in Russia
Gerhard Mangott, Professor of International Relations at the University of Innsbruck, takes the risk of Russian nuclear weapons use seriously. This military movement and also the departure of the submarine K-329 “Belgorod” could be nuclear messages. “Russian leaders are showing Ukraine and Western governments that Russia is fully capable and potentially willing to use nuclear weapons. This is primarily for deterrence at the moment. It is a signal that Ukraine should no longer take offensive action, and that the West should no longer support Ukraine with weapons,” says Mangott.
Gerhard Mangott, political scientist.
If these threats don’t stop Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Putin could move on to the next phase. “Russia could test a tactical nuclear weapon over the Black Sea or in Kamchatka.” If an explosion over uninhabited territory doesn’t do anything and Ukraine reconquers more territory, Russia could use a tactical nuclear weapon, Mangott says. “That won’t happen at the front, but over inhabited, Ukrainian, urban territory.”
Military expert and former Bundeswehr Colonel Ralph Thiele believes that if a Russian nuclear bomb does not act as a deterrent on uninhabited terrain, Moscow could attempt to attack political and economic targets in Ukraine. “It could be an explosion that emits an electromagnetic pulse and destroys anything electrically powered within hundreds of square kilometers: cars, televisions, satellites, computers, power plants. That would be one option,” she says.
Ralph D. Thiele, military expert.
How would the West react?
Most international experts agree that a nuclear weapons test would have devastating consequences for Russia. “Even a test that would actually violate Russia’s ratified Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty would result in severe economic and financial sanctions,” Mangott said.
But according to Gerhard Mangott, the US and NATO response is likely to be military. Former CIA Director David Petraeus, for example, stated that the United States and its allies were ready to destroy the entire Russian army on Ukrainian territory and sink the Black Sea Fleet. Mangott believes that this attack would be asymmetrical, i.e. with conventional weapons.
However, the expert believes that there is currently no evidence that the Russian leadership has decided to use nuclear weapons. “We’re not ready yet. Nor are we at the stage where Russia is in danger of losing this war catastrophically. But with every defeat that Russia suffers on the battlefield, with every recapture of the Russian-captured Ukrainian army, the probability may increase in that direction,” Mangott warns.
(gg/cp)