Galeotti, who lived in Moscow for several years, tells of Putin’s paranoia and how it has worsened in recent years. And he compared him to Hitler, less because of his brutality than because of the strategic mistakes he makes. After his election, Putin is a lonely man, he no longer accepts advice that does not correspond to his thinking. With the pandemic, he discovered the use of video calls, which allow a “sanitary” distance but have an additional advantage: with a button the interlocutor is muted. Leading elements of the Russian hierarchy have proven it firsthand. Explaining the impact of the invasion of Ukraine on the Russian economy, Central Bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said: “This war is throwing the economy down the drain.” Putin turned it off.
Putin’s poor military preparation –
In the West we portray Vladimir Putin as a former KGB spy, a ruthless strategist. But what Mark Galeotti says is a different story: Putin skipped military service thanks to university, and even during his career with the KGB conducted very mild military courses to reach the rank of artillery lieutenant. He’s always been an army fanatic, but has no idea what it’s like to be on the battlefield.
Putin is Ukraine’s best ally –
It was the same with Hitler, he wanted to lead his troops without trusting his generals and we know how it ended. Historians, writes Mark Galeotti, have wondered whether it would have been better to assassinate Hitler. The answer Galeotto gives himself is yes before the war, but no after the war started because someone more competent could have replaced him. From this point of view, Putin is Ukraine’s best friend at the moment. He miscalculated, he didn’t think of the first iron rule of war: logistics. He thought of a lightning operation and therefore did not follow the instructions of his generals, who initially wanted to secure supply lines. He wanted to attack and bring Kyiv home in two days. This was not the case.
The conquest of Ukraine is their political agenda –
With elections coming up in Russia in 2024, Putin doesn’t want to talk about the economy or health, he wants to get ahead of his people by putting Ukraine on a silver platter. Reform Greater Russia with Ukraine and Belarus under the same banner. That’s why it’s hard to imagine that it will stop any time soon. Not even Valery Gerasimov seems to be able to stop him. Gerasimov is chief of staff and has worked closely with Putin, but apparently more as a helper than an adviser. Gerasimov is tough, he was on the front line – the Ukrainians tried to kill him with artillery – and he knows exactly how bad the war went. But there’s no sign of it having any impact on the president.
Putin’s health –
thyroid cancer? Parkinson’s? Mark Galeotti does not comment on a possible illness of Putin and nevertheless points out several “physical” differences in the Russian president. He will be 70 in October and some ailments are almost certain. But it’s something more. On May 9, at the big military parade in Moscow, he sat surrounded by his bodyguards and with a blanket on his lap. A little further were decorated over 90s from WWII who looked fitter than the President. Putin has also lost that dialectical ability that allowed him to remain ice-cold in any situation. In several videos, we saw him lose his composure towards his advisors.
Obsession with Ukraine –
Putin has in the past explained the difference between enemies and traitors: one can fight enemies, but one hopes one day to be able to make a pact. You can’t do anything with the traitors, you just have to sweep them away. And it’s no secret that Putin sees Ukraine, or Ukrainians who don’t want to return to Russia, as traitors. He wants to leave the scene, says Galeotti, as a hero of the rebuilding of Great Russia and will try to do the impossible to get him.
The use of the atomic bomb? It is not excluded –
And that brings us to the bottom line: How far are you willing to go? Could it use nuclear weapons? Mark Galeotti does not rule that out: “Three months ago I would have said no, now everything is possible in the event of a total failure.” But other forces could prevail, says the professor. Putinism, Putin’s ideology, does not exist. During the Nazi era, Hitler’s ideals had created a group of fanatics willing to give their lives. With Putin no, he is surrounded by ruthless pragmatists: if he decides to bomb NATO, someone will intervene. No one in his “magic circle” is willing to take a bullet for him. And if Putin leaves, Galeotti writes again, no one will regret him.