Even despite the rumors about the possibility Freddie Freeman the number of exits from the Braves had increased since the start of the offseason, big clubs with deep pockets – the Yankees, the Dodgers, the Blue Jays – were seen as the main threats that could poach him. However, John Heyman of MLB Network reports that the Rays not only showed interest in Freeman, but proposed to him before commissioner Rob Manfred implemented the current lockout.
It’s amazing to hear that the Races are even playing for a free agent of Freeman’s caliber, and many fans are sure to play a joke and offer comically small numbers from Tampa Bay. That said, it’s at least worth giving up on that possibility, because looking ahead to the Rays’ long-term ledger, the huge commitment to Freeman might not be as far-fetched as it sounds.
Rays of 2022 are currently projected by Jason Martinez of Roster Resource with an $83 million payroll. They are also expected to make offers for veterans such as Kevin Kiermeier, Manuel Margo, Austin Meadows as well as Tyler Glasnowafter the lockout, among other things, which could see that number fall below the team’s opening day record of $77 million again. The mere mention of “franchise record payrolls” in the $77-83 million range serves to underscore why fans would scoff at the idea of a Race/Freeman matchup, but as we look forward to next season, it’s getting easier to imagine that.
Starting in 2023, the Rays have only three contracts. Second baseman/outfielder Brandon Low earns $5.25 million, left-handed Brooks Reilly $4.5 million guaranteed and a rising star Travel Franco owes $2 million. The combined $11.75 million doesn’t count players eligible for arbitration, and the Rays do have their fair share of names that could boost overall wages.
Glasnow, who is projected to make $5.8 million in 2021 by MLBTR contributor Matt Schwartz, will repeat that paycheck in 2022 if he doesn’t perform this year while in rehab from Tommy John surgery. Lefty Ryan Yarbrough will be in line for a decent raise over this year’s forecast of $4.4 million. If he fights in 2022, he will not be a candidate for the tender. If he recovers from an ugly 2021, he could be a trade candidate given the subsequent promotion and the Rays’ significant pitching depth. Meadows will get a solid pay raise over a $4.3 million forecast this year, but again, he’s already being considered for a trade. Margot is a free agent after the 2022 season.
Outside of this group, Rays’ arbitration commitments should generally be modest. Yonny Chirinos projected at $1.2 million this season and he will get a boost depending on how well he recovers from Tommy John surgery in 2020. Backup Catcher Francisco Mejia he’s owed a raise, but he’s only projecting $1.5 million this year. Ji-Man Choi will be in line for the final $3.2 million salary bump next year, but he could very well be touched if the Races pull the shock and sign Freeman.
In other words: The Rays may have a huge arbitrage class in 2022, but that is unlikely to be the case in 2023. Deals, no tenders and free rein will be deducted from the current group, and the only players to arbitrate in ’23 are the pitchers. Pete Fairbanks, Colin Poche, Ryan Thompson as well as J. T. Chargua. Famous names such as Randy Arozarena, Drew Rasmussen as well as Luis Patino are on their way to arbitrage in 2024, but by then the top of the arb class will thin out.
The conventional wisdom that a small market club like Tampa Bay can’t “afford” a mega deal for someone of Freeman’s stature is that it will limit them from further additions. Tying such a large percentage of a team’s paycheck to a single player can obviously be dangerous. However, the next Ray core is already more or less ready and is unlikely to be expensive anytime soon. Franco has signed an 11-year, $182 million contract extension, and his salary won’t peak until 2028 – seven years from now (and one year less than the six years Freeman reportedly demanded).
The Rays’ rotation has been something of a patchwork quilt in 2021, but as they look to the future, they hope the combination Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz and Patino can lead the process. McClanahan and Baz won’t reach arbitration until 2025. Tampa Bay has several other high-profile leads: Taj Bradley, Seth Johnson as well as Cole Wilcox among them. The organization likely still has high hopes for the often-injured former top player. Brendan McKay also.
Looking up and down the roster, Franco blocked the shortstop and Brandon Lowe made a team-friendly deal at second base. Lowe will earn $4 million in 2022, $5.25 million in 2023 and $8.75 million in 2024. After that, Ray has $10.5 million in club options and $11.5 million. If at any point the team feels Lowe’s contract is too bulky, he could be sold in exchange for better prospects. Vidal Bruhan We go up to second base. Bruhan may have counted as part of the inside or outfield in other positions before, and Taylor Walls gives Tampa Bay another solid MLB-ready prospect. Best far avenue Josh LowIn the meantime, it looks like he’ll be moving to center field soon – possibly even on Opening Day if Kiermayer’s contract is rescheduled after the lockout.
Obviously not all of these players will become stars or even regulars, but over the next few seasons the Rays could build their roster around the likes of McClanahan, Baz, Patino and Rasmussen on the serving side, as well as Franco, Arozarena , both. Lowes and possibly Bruhan are on the side of the position player. None of this group will reach arbitration until at least 2024 (most not until 2025), and the Race will likely do well when it comes to persuading at least one or two of their pre-arbitration stars to sign a friendly club extension. Tampa Bay currently doesn’t even have $15 million guaranteed contracts in any single season from 2023 to 2025, a three-year period that corresponds to the second, third and fourth years of Freeman’s theoretical contract.
None of this means that the Freeman to the Rays scenario is likely. To call it a “promising chance” would actually be condescending. Tampa Bay will face intense competition from the incumbent Braves as well as many big-market teams looking to add a bat to their roster, and the chance of the Rays making a mistake on a contract of this magnitude is infinitesimal compared to that of the “Flight”. a team like the Dodgers, Yankees, or even the Braves. But given the Rays’ minimum long-term commitment and the wealth of MLB-ready pre-arbitrage talent they already have, one can at least squint and see how they could fit Freeman into the mix – even if he makes over $30 million. dollars a year.