The Rangers have achieved another upward move in the rotation with the signing Tyler Mahle on a two-year contract. It is reportedly a $22 million guarantee for the ISE Baseball client, who can earn up to $5 million more in bonuses depending on his innings tally in 2025. He will miss the start of Season 24 as he completes his rehab from Tommy John surgery last season. Texas has two other openings on the 40-man roster.
Mahle spent a season and a half with the Twins. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds at the 2022 trade deadline. It turned out to be one of the more one-sided deadline deals of recent summers. Cincinnati taken over Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion Beach and view Steve Hajjarwho they subsequently moved to the Guardians as part of a deal Will Benson.
Unfortunately for Minnesota, injuries derailed the deal. Mahle ended up on the injured list a few weeks after taking over due to shoulder inflammation. He returned, threw a pitch once and then returned to the IL for the remainder of the season. Mahle returned to form in early 2023, posting a 3.16 ERA in five starts. He suffered an elbow injury during his April 27 outing and underwent Tommy John surgery a few weeks later.
This ended his season and ultimately his tenure with the Twins. Given the approximate recovery time of 14 months often associated with TJS rehab, he could return sometime around the All-Star break. That would put Mahle on a similar path to Jacob deGromwho underwent the same operation about four weeks later.
Even if Mahle doesn't bring the same upside as deGrom, he would be a great asset in his own right. The 29-year-old emerged as a quality starter in the middle rotation late in his time in Cincinnati. Between 2020 and the '22 deadline, he posted a 3.93 ERA in 332 innings and 62 appearances. Mahle struck out an above-average 27.4% of batters during that stretch, compared to a manageable walk rate of 8.9%. Despite pitching in a difficult home park, he allowed just 1.1 home runs per nine innings.
Mahle's pace has slowed somewhat in the last two seasons, which is not surprising given his arm problems. In 2021, he averaged 94 mph on his four-seam cutter, with a plus cutter/slider that clocked in at around 87 mph. Mahle has a splitter that he can use against lefties and has posted neutral platoon numbers throughout his career.
If he can regain his pre-surgery form, Mahle would fit in the middle or back end of a quality Texas rotation. The Rangers haven't been afraid to take the risk of injury to pursue strong starters. deGrom was of course the best example, but also Mahle, Jon Grey, Nathan Eovaldi And Andrew Heaney were talented fliers in the middle echelons of the starter pitching market.
Max Scherzer anchors the season opening team. Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney and Dane Dunning Project to fill the remainder of opening day five. Texas should have more clarity on the respective health statuses of deGrom and Mahle as next summer's trade deadline approaches.
Mahle's contract just exceeds MLBTR's two-year projection of $20 million. It's just north of the $20 million guarantee the Rockies' right-hander secured German Marquez, a pitcher of similar caliber who signed for two years after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May. Mahle, who turned 29 in September, is on track to return to free agency ahead of his age-31 season in 2026.
The average annual value of $11 million brings the Rangers' competitive balance sheet tax to about $232 million, as calculated by Roster Resource. That's just under the base threshold of $237 million for next season. Texas had a luxury tax number of about $252 million last season. While their championship run certainly brought in a significant amount of playoff revenue, the organization also faces some uncertainty regarding its local television rights deal. GM Chris Young indicated in the winter meetings that the team would be a little quieter in free agency than in recent offseasons.
ESPN's Jeff Passan was the first to report the $22 million guarantee and $5 million performance bonuses.
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