For once, the experts do not agree. After three months and a day of war, the situation is still “stalemate”. The Russian armed forces, of course Advance to the Donbassthe raids are returning from the Black Sea Zaporizhia, on the other hand, the weapons arrive in Ukrainian depots, but not in the south and with many doubts about who else can use them. So every day the conflict and control zones change, but nothing seems to change because the Negotiation remains at stake Waiting for specific dates to start it from. How long will this situation last? Who has the best chance of being the winner? Three generals from different disciplines see it the same way: they exclude one counteroffensive on the large scale invoked by Zelenskyy to expel the Russians from the occupied territories, on the other hand they point to the enormous difficulties of the Russian forces in consolidating control over the territories they are gradually conquering. for Fabio Mini, Marco Bertolini and Vincenzo Camporni No one has the right cards in hand to drop at the peace table. It still takes time, maybe weeks, to define colors and contours. More weeks of blood.
Fabio Mini – Former Chief of Staff, NATO Southern Europe Command
“A major counteroffensive is impossible”
The forces of both sides they wear out, but not yet ready to force them into negotiations. The Russians have taken the Donbass, that’s fine, but an area confined to administrative borders doesn’t make much sense without one security tape at least fifty kilometers inland. Without them, Ukrainians will be pinned there to the ends of the earth. And then they are closer to the important cities of Donbass, like Donetsk and Severodonesk and more The defensive line outweighs the attack. That the Ukrainians will recapture the areas, but I don’t think so, they can’t do that. You can try to stand up to one still a hybrid situation, in the sense that there are still “Ukrainian pockets” to bypass, like Kramatorsk. The Russians themselves have no territory under control, they would go there with a line of contact, which is not rigidly defined, but can change appearance from minute to minute. How long can it take? Remember that for them Vietnam it lasted five years. We also need to understand how the new long-range weapons the West is providing will be deployed. 3-4 missiles of the good guys are enough and take out entire artillery brigades. So I think they’re fine as long as they exist direct contact with the Russian units, but until they are thrown over the front there is little to do, there will be a massacre in any case. That’s why I don’t understand all this excitement. It is different if you shoot with it instead of in the open field within the cities, which is not excluded. In this case, availability alone could make someone say, “Well, let’s make other cities martyrs,” but let’s shut down these missiles that we have. I also wonder how long this open-ended, massive support for Ukraine will last: money is pouring in from all sides and they don’t know where to put it. until american elections? Again, this is a goal, but for the Russians, in the sense that the next day the tide could change for the Ukrainians from Washington, and even that could lead to growing pressure from the Russians, not the Ukrainian armed forces: in the In the moment they see a drop in support for nearby Ukrainians, they really start to break through.
Marco Bertolini – Former commander of the Joint Forces Summit Operational Command
“The new weapons for local counter-offensives can only be won by negotiation”
In short, the Russians are currently winning from one point of view military tactical, they lose from a political point of view. They are winning both on the ground and at sea, as the Ukrainians have admitted that the Russian fleet now controls the Black Sea. It remains to be seen how long this situation will last. Being right in an armed conflict is not enough, one must win negotiation. But if nobody is there because nobody is sitting at the table to discuss victory on the pitch, it’s of little use. But it seems to me the tide is turning. Several advocates of war at any cost, those who turned their backs on Lavrov when he addressed the UN, are now arguing that negotiations must be held. He just did it Kissinger, who is one who knows a lot. Ukraine must say what it wants to give up and what she is not willing to give up, but at least in the state of stalemate, any refusal becomes an untenable position that drives the conflict to infinity. I don’t see any possible twists. The new weapons are certainly not intended for a powerful counter-offensive, because they are not enough, you need the soldier who uses them, be it the rifle or the rocket. We do not know how many losses Ukraine has suffered and how many resources it has after three months of war. I envision most local counter-offensives to keep the conflict going, which would otherwise die out, but I don’t see any action that would drive the Russians out of Donbass or Crimea or Mariupol. It’s different when NATO intervenes, but I don’t want to think about that because of the scenarios that open up. In any case, for the hearing it is necessary that also that Zelensky or who for him face reality. In my opinion he was fooled by the possibility of winning. Maybe Putin really doesn’t have the resources for that. But the sooner they acknowledge it, the sooner this bloody war, which only continues at the cost of enormous human sacrifices, will end.
Vincenzo Camporini
Former Air Force and Defense Chief of Staff
“No one wins, in two weeks it will be clear to everyone”
Who wins, who loses. No one wins, and not for ideal reasons like “everyone loses in war” but for one simple and gross fact: resource depletion on both fronts. The Russians are unable to go beyond capturing the Donbass if they can, and the Ukrainians, even receiving the most sophisticated armor from the West, are beginning to have manpower problems: they are running out of soldiers. Even looking at the movements on the ground, I would say that we are faced with a “dynamic stalemate” where we are always fighting and every day the map of conquered territories is changing, but essentially very little is happening. The point is that everyone has the hope of winning that they will fight, when they both realize they don’t have it they will stop fighting and the guns will stop. This is the situation. Zelensky says: “We lose a hundred men every day” … the plane will be made in a few months, the soldier will not. That’s why I don’t believe in a counteroffensive by the Ukrainians, even if they are supplied to the teeth with new weapons. But the same goes for Russia, which has very serious problems. Just today I received word from very informed sources that they are getting me out of the mothball T64wagons built at the end dhe 1950s that do not have night combat capabilities do not have current targeting systems. They have a cannon, yes, and if they shoot anywhere, the bullet arrives. This gives an idea of the difficulties they face. So I don’t think they can win, they will want to put the pressure back on and the Ukrainians will want to respond, but without being able to progress. So I fear that the war will continue over time until the situation is recognized. How long? On May 9, during the live broadcast of the famous “Parade” on Red Square, I answered the same question to a colleague of hers: let’s flip a coin, six weeks. Two have passed, and in a month you are all still entitled to mock me, but I repeat here that it will not go much for me. It is the classic where the virtue of hope ceases to be a virtue and becomes a vice.