Russia’s President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during their meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Amur region on September 13, 2023. MIKHAIL METZEL/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
- Russia demands weapons and ammunition from North Korea to continue its war in Ukraine.
- In return, Kim Jong Un could receive food and advanced technologies for satellites and nuclear submarines.
- The partnership could be hugely important for North Korea, and experts told Insider that both sides would benefit from standing up to the West.
Russia’s desperation and pariah status are increasing, forcing President Vladimir Putin to turn to North Korea to fuel his war in Ukraine. Both sides can benefit, but a partnership could be a big win for North Korea.
Last week, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited Russia’s Amur region for a summit with Putin. Western officials had previously warned that the two nations were negotiating some kind of arms deal that could replenish dwindling Russian ammunition supplies.
A Western official told the BBC that Russian forces had fired between 10 and 11 million artillery shells in 2022 after the first large-scale invasion in February, and that while Moscow could increase its domestic production to around 2 million shells a year, it had not enough to satisfy Russia’s insatiable hunger for mussels. This is where North Korea could come into play: providing missiles and grenades.
“The ammunition will boost morale and increase soldiers’ fighting ability. This will contribute to a longer war and increase Russia’s chances,” retired South Korean Army Lt. Gen. Chun In-bum told Insider.
In return for the munitions it has in abundance, North Korea could receive advanced technology it does not yet have – satellite support, which Russian state media said Putin confirmed it would provide, as well as nuclear weapons capabilities. driven Submarines.
North Korea could also receive petroleum products and food, which a United Nations Security Council meeting last August said North Korea desperately needs as its population goes hungry. Part of the country’s inability to feed its population is due to its “military first” policy, Elizabeth Salmón, the U.N. special investigator for human rights in North Korea, said during the summit, as Kim prioritizes the country’s defense budget.
So an alliance would certainly be beneficial for both sides in the short and long term. But it also signals something bigger between the two.
“There is a reason North Korea has openly and consistently shown its public support — both political and material — for Russia’s war effort,” said Jenny Town, director of 38 North, an analysis publication of the Henry L. Stimson Center. as they will benefit from this relationship in many ways, which represents low political risk and high reward for Kim Jong Un.”
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un observes the artillery fire competition in North Korea. KCNA/Portal
When Kim left his so-called “hermit kingdom” last week, it was clear that something was changing. The trip was the dictator’s first known international departure in more than four years, the last also taking him to Russia in 2019 for a meeting about North Korea’s nuclear program. However, a Putin-Kim partnership specifically focused on arms and ammunition for Russian soldiers in Ukraine has been in the works for at least months, with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visiting the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea in late July, according to a senior official White House officials asked for assistance.
“We remain concerned that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea continues to consider providing military support to Russia’s military operations against Ukraine,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said at the time, referring to North Korea its official name, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
If North Korea strikes a deal, it certainly has the necessary supplies — nominally enough for a three- to six-month war at the unclassified level, according to Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., a senior fellow in image analysis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and an expert on North Korean defense and intelligence affairs.
Pyongyang could offer enough to serve as a stopgap for Russia, and given North Korea’s extensive industrial infrastructure for weapons systems, more could be on the way. “The challenge is that it doesn’t typically operate at full capacity,” Bermudez said, adding that North Korea “operates at a maintenance level, not a wartime level” and it will take time to ramp up production when it does They should continuously support Russia.
And while their production equipment is older and manufacturing is a relatively slower process, that doesn’t necessarily mean they produce inferior ammunition – but there have been “some quality control issues” with the ammunition sent abroad by North Korea, Bermudez said.
In a North Korean artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island in 2010, for example, an estimated 20 of 80 shells failed to explode. “This high failure rate suggests that some DPRK-made artillery ammunition – particularly MRL [Multiple Rocket Launcher] Cartridges – suffer from either poor quality control during manufacturing or poor storage conditions and standards,” said a 2011 report by 38 North.
Some other experts and analysts said in the days leading up to the Putin-Kim summit that North Korean ammunition was outdated and unreliable. It’s unclear what specific munitions Russia would be looking for and what condition that munitions would be in, but frankly it might not matter if Moscow is desperate enough.
“North Korean weapons, particularly if they are deployed beyond just stockpiles but also include new production, could help prolong Russia’s war effort. “Although North Korean production efforts would likely require additional resources of raw materials and/or energy to increase production in significant quantities,” Town told Insider.
But while “North Korean artillery and ammunition are useful to Russia,” “this entire relationship signals a shift in the way Russia values military cooperation with North Korea – both for war efforts and in a broader war against the West,” she added added.
North Korean soldiers take part in a mass rally in Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang on December 1, 2017, to celebrate the country’s declaration that it has achieved full nuclear statehood. KIM WON-JIN/AFP via Getty Images
This “broader war against the West” could involve giving North Korea what it currently lacks.
Officials speculated to The New York Times that the wish list included advanced technology for satellites and nuclear submarines. The latter would be particularly timely considering that a few days before the Putin-Kim meeting, North Korea unveiled a “tactical nuclear attack submarine,” which appears to be a heavily renovated Romeo-class ship from the era Cold War action, which one naval expert described as “kind of inferior.”
Bermudez said food and petroleum products are likely to be the main demand, but technology and resources such as “scientists, technicians and engineers to improve what North Korea is doing” are also included. As for satellites, North Korea remains capable of producing its own launch vehicles but may need help clarifying stage separation and reliability details.
The Air Force could also use some improvements as it currently has antique aircraft such as the MiG-21 and MiG-23 in service. This represents a major disadvantage against regional adversaries such as South Korea, Japan and the U.S. forces in each of these countries, all of which have fifth-generation fighters.
But Russia’s help in these areas could look more like teaching North Korea to become self-sufficient than a direct technology transfer. Nuclear-powered submarines would require Russian technicians and modernized capabilities since the transition from diesel to nuclear power is not easy, but North Korea has been producing submarines for decades and has one of the country’s largest naval fleets in the world in terms of numbers, although made up mostly of small ones coastal ships.
“But what they really need,” Bermudez told Insider, “is quieter technology” to make louder submarines, like the Romeo redesign, more stealthy.
It’s still not entirely clear what Russia could provide or how much effort it will take to give North Korea what it wants. But Putin’s willingness to cooperate with North Korea speaks volumes about the hermit kingdom’s increasingly important role as a political ally and shows that the decision to cooperate militarily with North Korea serves national interests that can avoid the negative effects of sanctions, reactions from the international community or increasing global isolation predominate.
“I believe Kim will get everything he wants: money, technology, food and fuel,” In-bum said, adding that he could get it directly from the Russians, if not through the usual nefarious channels such as theft and Bribery. But there’s more to it than that.
“Kim probably sees it as the beginning of a relationship that he wants to develop,” Bermudez said, adding that possible “real improvements” to the two’s relationship could include training exercises with Russian naval and air forces and would ultimately turn Russia on its head and North Korea as an ideological opponent of the West.
“For both Kim and Putin, this latest visit and possible future cooperation is a prestige gain,” he said, but it remains to be seen how this plays out.
NOW WATCH: Popular Videos from Insider Inc.
Is loading…