The crisis in middle East it is now a black hole for the Biden administration. The attacks of Hamas The terrorist attacks against Israel on October 7th have set in motion an escalation that appears increasingly uncontrollable. Not only. They also highlighted the president's weakness on this issue. The White House is under siege from multiple internal and external fronts, threatening not only Washington's role as a global power but also Joe Biden's presidential campaign.
The inner front
One of the most sensitive nerves for Biden is the domestic political front. Unconditional support for Israel is costing the president dearly. On January 3, a group of 17 people hired to work on the president's reelection committee wrote an open letter criticizing Biden's decision to support Israel and calling on him to work to end the violence. A dissatisfaction that affects not only those campaigning for his re-election, but every area of the administration. For months, some White House aides have expressed dissatisfaction with the war in Gaza, with internal memos, briefings and forcing the chief of staff to act as peacemaker. In late November, a pro-Palestinian post on Facebook by a senior CIA official caused significant embarrassment.
On Capitol Hill, however, there was no shortage of stomach aches among Democratic senators who did not view favorably the decision to bypass Congress and send weapons to Israel. To top it off, the polls: 61% of Americans disapprove of the way Biden is handling the dossier. In addition, the American Muslim minority told Biden that they did not want to support him in the run-up to the election. And with them a significant number of young Americans who are increasingly closer to Palestinian demands. Two “defects” that could make the difference in some swing states.
The Pentagon is pushing
Still on the domestic front but with opposing grievances, there is some tension between the White House and the Pentagon. Since October, American bases and soldiers between Syria and Iraq have been attacked by missiles and drones from Shiite militias near Iran, with nearly a hundred attacks and a dozen soldiers injured. The government has promised answers, but so far there have been nearly a dozen American raids. The army would like to see more forceful action, but Biden is very cautious. The risk, it is whispered in the Pentagon corridors, is that more and more serious accidents will occur, perhaps even that a US soldier will die. Meanwhile, Politico wrote, the war in Gaza has forced the Defense Department and the armed forces to develop scenarios for a larger war. Four officials acknowledged that discussions were continuing within the American government about possible war scenarios in which the United States could be drawn.
The escalation in the Red Sea
Another very sensitive front for Biden is that of the Red Sea. The Houthis They managed to keep one of the most sensitive and important global hubs in the world under control. At the moment, Washington is limited to creating some kind of missile shield with its ships, but not everyone likes the defensive approach. English sources The Times spoke to said the British government, along with the United States and another European country, was considering targeted raids against Shiite militias in Yemen.
A meeting of members of the national security team was held at the White House on Wednesday to consider all options on the table, including attacks against Houthis. Currently, Biden has not authorized any offensive operations in the region, but pressure is mounting to avoid other incidents that will shake up global logistics.
The Israeli front
The start of 2024 has brought further sources of tension for the government. The first is that of the January 2 raid in Beirut that killed Hamas' number two political leader. Saleh al-Arouri, the second is the attack in Iran on the cemetery where former general Qasem Soleimani is buried, which left around a hundred people dead. The two events are shaking the Shiite world, from the Pasdaran to Lebanon's Hezbollah. The risk of a second war front is increasing.
For months, Tel Aviv has said it is prepared to fight on two fronts. Gaza and Lebanon, while simultaneously deploying troops and tanks along the border with the Land of Cedars, the IDF also evacuated at least 70,000 residents from the area and raids along the border occurred for weeks. Iran, wounded by the attack, promises answers, but now the entire Shiite belt is under pressure. On January 4, an American drone struck the headquarters of a Shiite militia in the heart of Baghdad, killing the brigade commander and triggering the Iraqi government's anger.
Biden's balancing act
At the moment, Biden is walking a tightrope. On the one hand, he supports any kind of response from Israel after October 7th, but on the other hand, he has started asking Netanyahu's government to be calm. Prudence that he himself applies in directing American surgical strikes between Iraq and Syria. Not only. On January 2nd, Washington and Doha have reached an agreement to use the Al-Udeid base in Qatar for another 10 years. This is the largest US military installation in the entire Middle East and is home to more than 10,000 American soldiers.
The base is an important hub for America. It allows operations to be carried out across the Middle East, from Afghanistan to the Horn of Africa, but also guarantees a privileged view of the entrance to the Indo-Pacific, the intersection where the game with Chinese ambitions is played. Paradoxically, the agreement may also be a problem for Israel because it represents a kind of shield for Hamas leaders living in the country. On the one hand, this move helps the US strengthen its presence in the region, but on the other hand, it increases tensions with Israel at a time when Biden would need de-escalation, which is still a mirage.