November 2028. The migration crisis has become the main concern of the European population. Far-right and far-right governments are in power in a third of European Union (EU) countries. Meanwhile, the United States is facing an unprecedented constitutional crisis: after his victory in November 2024, President Donald Trump decided to run again in 2028, arguing that the two – having already won three times (2016, 2020 (sic) and 2024) – Term limits no longer apply to him.
In Ukraine, the Kiev government condemns Russia's failure to comply with the terms of the spring 2025 peace agreement. On November 1, under the pretext of an unacceptable blockade of the Kaliningrad region by Lithuania and Poland, the Russian Federation launches a surprise attack against the Baltic countries. 2028. In a few hours the armies of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania suffer heavy losses. Immediately resort is made to Article 5 of the NATO Charter, which provides for mutual assistance in the event of armed aggression against any of the members of the Transatlantic Alliance.
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The next day, Poland declared war on Russia. France, Germany and the United Kingdom are directly facing a high-intensity war and are consulting the White House before entering into the conflict. On November 4, Donald Trump commented on the situation for the first time: He had just spoken to the Russian president, who promised him a cessation of hostilities in exchange for the Baltic states' withdrawal from NATO and the protection of Russian-speaking residents.
Of course, this scenario is fiction. But how long?
The big lie of wars we didn't see coming
Since the Trojan War, historians have had the unfortunate habit of exaggerating the “unpredictable” or “unexpected” nature of a war: the invasion of Poland in September 1939, the attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941, more recently the “special military operation” in the Year 1939 Ukraine in February 2022 or the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7, 2023.
But every time the signs were there. Adolf Hitler had already rearmed the Rhineland in March 1936 (in violation of the 1925 Treaty of Locarno) before carrying out the Anschluss (the annexation of Austria) in March 1938. In July 1941, Japanese assets in the United States had been frozen. The Japanese archipelago had joined the Axis powers in September 1940 and was subject to a total embargo on oil and steel, threatening its wartime economy.
Closer to home, many Ukrainians – for example Oleksiy Arestovych, a former adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – expected a Russian invasion. After all, the October 7 Hamas attack was foreseen by the Egyptian, Saudi, American and even Israeli intelligence services, as the Shin Bet and Mossad had identified certain signs and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was aware of them.
As statistician and theorist Nassim Nicholas Taleb says, “black swans” are primarily the result of cognitive bias, that is, the inability of the population and its leaders to understand facts that do not conform to an established narrative structure.
The invasion of Ukraine is the first step in a project to restore the borders of the Russian Empire.
Far from the complex, “fractal” reality on the ground, the war in Ukraine can therefore also be interpreted as a series of narrative discourses that mark the cognitive bias of the moment:
1. Before February 24, 2022: The war will not take place.
2. From February 24 to March 1, 2022: Russia will behead the Ukrainian regime.
3. From March to November 2022: The danger posed by Russia is overestimated.
4. From November 2022 to September 2023: Ukraine will repel the enemy.
5. Since September 2023: The war is blocked.
By calling for negotiations to end the conflict, “peace advocates,” whether well-intentioned or not, are only heightening the specter of an even more dramatic war. The invasion of Ukraine is certainly the first step in a project to restore the borders and zone of influence of the Russian Empire (1721-1917) and restore its former greatness. To achieve this, NATO must disappear, the European Union must be divided and the Russian military apparatus must be modernized and multiplied.
As long as the Ukraine conflict continues, Russia cannot afford a second front in Europe (resources, surprise effect, etc.). Once the war is over, the Kremlin, armed with the lessons of the Ukraine conflict, will work to replenish its supplies and equipment in preparation for the next attack on the former Soviet republics, likely an attack on the Baltic countries. Members of NATO. We would enter a new dimension.
Between three and ten years before the next war with Russia
NATO's economy is about twenty times larger than Russia's and Europe's ten times larger. And yet, for comparison, Britain, France, Germany and Italy can only field a maximum of 1,000 main battle tanks, compared to 6,000 to 7,000 Russian tanks. Since February 2022, the Russian army has lost more than 2,600 tanks, i.e. 2.5 times the total equivalent arsenal of Europe's four largest economies!
And the Russian factories are running at full speed: the Russians are currently producing sixty tanks a month, which means that in a quarter they can produce all the French tanks! Rarely in history have we seen such a gap between economic power and weapons production.
And after the shock of February 2022, this divide is not being resolved but is being exacerbated… Alarming reports are increasing, first in the United States and the United Kingdom. But it was only the publication of a report by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), a Berlin-based think tank, in November 2023 that caused a lot of excitement. The Berlin institute imagines five scenarios for NATO's response to the threat of Russian rearmament, with the maximum threat estimated between five and ten years.
DGAP analysts recommend a NATO force of 300,000 soldiers with a high level of readiness (compared to 10,000 soldiers spread across eight combat units in Eastern Europe). However, Jens Soltenberg, Secretary General of NATO, had already announced this number more than a year ago in June 2022, but no progress was made.
Poland and the Baltic countries seem to live in a different time than Western European countries.
For Jacek Siewiera, head of Poland's National Security Office, a delay of five to ten years before the next Russian attack is too “optimistic.” He estimates the risk to be three to five years. The Russian rearmament is happening far too quickly, the hesitancy of Western European countries is real and the American position is too unpredictable. So what to do? Currently in Europe only Poland, Estonia and Lithuania seem to understand the threat.
With a budget of 4% of its gross domestic product (GDP) that it planned to spend on defense in 2023, Poland is the only European country that clearly follows its words with action. Polish rearmament efforts initiated by the ultra-conservative and nationalist government of Mateusz Morawiecki (increasing the army from 115,000 to 300,000 men, purchasing 96 Apache helicopters, 116 Abrams tanks, Himars rocket launchers, etc.) are continuing or even accelerating. by the new center-left government of Donald Tusk.
In contrast, Germany, which spoke of an additional investment of 100 billion euros in February 2022, has actually invested 1.5 billion for now. The United Kingdom has only increased its defense budget by 5 billion pounds (around 5.8 billion euros) and is continuing to reduce the number of troops in all branches of its army.
As for France, the new Military Programming Law (LPM) 2024-2030 envisages a budget of 413.3 billion euros, 40% more than the 295 billion euros of the previous LPM – but these amounts will face resistance. Are you at the Bercy Cups? Everything happens as if Poland and the Baltic countries lived in a different historical time than the countries of Western Europe.
The Pacific Imbroglio
Additional variables are added to an already complex situation. The first is Taiwan. In his New Year's address, Chinese President Xi Jinping renewed his promise to reunify the island with mainland China. According to American analysts, China will reach an “optimal” level of modernization and military prognosis around 2026-2028. While the United States would be ready for a large-scale naval air war in the Pacific by 2028-2029 (Next Generation Air Dominance program to develop a new fighter, a new B-21 Raider strategic bomber, etc.).
In addition, there is the further deterioration of relations on the Korean peninsula and, at the same time, North Korea's aid to Russia. And finally there is the Donald Trump conundrum. We know that if the former President of the United States is “re-elected,” he will continue to increase military spending while remaining anti-war.
We already know his policy in the Middle East: he will support Israel even more unconditionally. In Asia, Donald Trump will try to curb China's ambitions. And he will cut off aid to Ukraine while seeking a negotiated settlement to the war that gives Vladimir Putin a clear path to revitalizing his ambitions. But even if Donald Trump is not elected, the United States will not be able to fight three wars at the same time. However, the Republicans' choice has already been made between Israel, Taiwan and Ukraine.
Therefore, China has great interest in supporting Russia in the European theater to mobilize the United States on multiple fronts. Russia may, for the same reasons, be tempted to encourage the opening of a new conflict on the Korean Peninsula, which would not suit China and would hardly lead to the idea of a war on its border. And if Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu, for “opposite” reasons, want Donald Trump to win at any cost, this is not necessarily the opinion of China, which is worried about a possible retreat on the European front that would not regulate its affairs.
Against the clock
Three decades ago, the end of the Cold War in Europe was accompanied by an explosion in debt and social spending, largely linked to an aging population and a lack of economic growth. For many EU governments, defense budgets have become an accounting variable. Result: more than thirty years of disarmament, unprecedented in history.
If the shock of Russia's “special military operation” aroused legitimate emotions and made it possible to provide tens of billions of euros in financial and military aid to Ukraine, this was primarily to the detriment of existing stocks. So there was a lot of talk and, with the exception of Poland and Estonia, words were not followed by action. European leaders have not yet understood the gravity of what is happening in Russia: transformation of the country into a war economy, generalization of ultranationalist discourse, indoctrination in schools, total control of the media and society…
Faced with the greatest threat to the EU since the Second World War, rebuilding Europe's military apparatus is the continent's top priority. As the DGAP report states, the race against time has already begun.