Five days before the Jean-Talon by-election, the CAQ achieved its worst result in five years. There is a decline for François Legault’s party in Greater Quebec, according to a Léger poll that predicts a heated battle with the Parti Québécois on Monday.
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In Quebec as in Ottawa, governments appear to be paying the price for uncertainty caused by inflation and the rising cost of living that they are unable to appease.
In fact, the news at the federal level is hardly more encouraging for Justin Trudeau, who posted his lowest voter intention score since becoming prime minister.
The same goes for François Legault, who has seen a five-point increase in dissatisfaction with his government.
Significant decrease
With 34% support in Quebec, “this is the worst result the CAQ has achieved since its election in 2018,” points out pollster Jean-Marc Léger.
A few weeks before the government was formed, five years ago, the Coalition Avenir Québec received 32% of the voting intentions. The CAQ came to power in 2018 with 37% of the vote and has held a dominant position ever since. Re-elected last year with 41% of the vote, the CAQ now receives seven points less.
“This is a significant decrease,” notes Mr. Léger.
In the national capital, the bloodshed hits even harder for the Caquistes, who lose 10 points compared to the previous month.
The first PQ in Quebec
A few days before a closely watched supplementary election, the CAQ’s decline allows the PQ to find itself in first place in Greater Quebec despite a one-point drop.
“This means that it will be a very close election in Jean-Talon,” predicts the Léger president.
After the backlash caused by the abandonment of the third road link, the rapid resignation of Joëlle Boutin and the dispute with the PQ over the candidacy of Pascal Paradis, the possibility that the CAQ “escapes Jean-Talon is indeed real,” he said.
In the event of a PQ victory, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and his gang could become “the alternative to the CAQ,” says Mr. Léger.
At the national level, however, support for the PQ is stabilizing both among Francophones and the electorate as a whole.
In fact, only Solidarity and the Conservatives are gaining in Quebec compared to the previous month, with seven and five points more respectively.
The only downside to QS is that “young people don’t vote,” recalls Mr. Léger, who runs the risk of appearing at the ballot box, in Jean-Talon.
It remains to be seen how each party’s voting machines will manage to encourage participation in the October 2nd vote.
METHODOLOGY Web survey of 1,028 eligible Quebec voters conducted September 22-25, 2023. 1,652 Canadians were asked questions about federal policy. It is not possible to calculate a margin of error for a sample from a panel, but for comparison, the maximum margin of error for a sample of 1,028 respondents is ± 3.06%, in 19 out of 20 cases.
Would you also like to take part in surveys? Register for LEO, the Léger panel: https://bit.ly/3raMw62
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