- Subtropical Storm Nicole has formed east of the Bahamas.
- This storm will be heading towards the Bahamas and southeastern US coast this week.
- Nicole could be a strong tropical storm or possibly hurricane strength as it approaches Florida.
- Regardless, high winds, heavy rain, high surf, currents and coastal flooding are expected along the southeast coast.
Subtropical Storm Nicole has formed in the Atlantic and is expected to invade the Bahamas, Florida and the Southeast this week. High winds, high surf, currents, coastal flooding, beach erosion and heavy rain are expected along parts of the east coast.
Considered the 14th storm of the Atlantic season early Monday morning, Nicole is located several hundred miles east of the Bahamas.
The storm has been classified as subtropical for now, meaning it’s a hybrid system, displaying characteristics of both a tropical and nontropical storm. Nicole is expected to transition into a full tropical storm in the next few days.
(MORE: Difference between subtropical and tropical)
A tropical storm watch has been issued for a portion of the northwestern Bahamas, and additional tropical storm watches may be posted throughout the Bahamas and Florida later in the day.
Prediction Track, Intensity
Nicole is currently tracking north-northwest but is expected to continue turning west toward the Bahamas and Florida by midweek.
During this time, Nicole is expected to become a strong tropical storm and may even approach Florida with near Category 1 hurricane strength. Landing of Nicole’s center is expected sometime Wednesday evening or early Thursday on Florida’s east coast, but the impact will hit long before that.
Nicole will then turn north near or over Florida before being caught by a cold front that will turn the storm northeast over the southeastern states or adjacent coastal waters.
Current status, forecast path
(The red-shaded area shows the potential path of the tropical cyclone center. It is important to note that with each tropical cyclone, the impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) typically spread beyond its predicted path.)
Impact of Southeast Forecast
Gusty winds, high surf, and dangerous rip currents are already increasing on the southeast coast as a pressure gradient builds between Nicole and a strong high-pressure system toward the eastern states.
The worst of Nicole’s impact on the southeast coast could arrive late Tuesday or Wednesday and continue well into the second half of the week in some areas.
Nicole will be a large system, and as such it will likely produce coastal flooding, tropical storm winds (39+ mph winds), heavy rainfall, rough surf, and currents along much of the southeast coast from Florida to Georgia, the Carolinas, and the Virginia Tidewater. The northwestern Bahamas will also feel the effects.
If Nicole is a strong tropical storm or is at hurricane strength when it hits Florida, then there could be a more concentrated area of storm surge flooding and damaging winds near where its center crosses the coast Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
precipitation outlook
(This should be interpreted as a general outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms stall over a period of a few hours.)
More details on Nicole’s potential impact will come into focus shortly, so check weather.com for updates.
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