When the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco announced they would establish relations with Israel in 2020, Emirati officials said the agreements were symbols of peace and tolerance, while then-President Donald J. Trump called “the beginning of a new Middle East.” East” announced.
However, for many in the region, these words rang hollow. Even in the countries that signed the accords, known as the Abraham Accords, support for the Palestinians – and hostility toward Israel during the decades-long occupation of their land – remained strong, especially when the Israeli government closed the settlements in the aftermath of the accords Palestinian West Bank expanded.
When Palestinian gunmen crossed into Israel from the blockaded Gaza Strip on Saturday, carrying out the boldest attack in decades, it sparked a wave of support for Palestinians across the region. There were celebrations in some neighborhoods – even as hundreds of Israelis and Palestinians were killed and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened an impending “long and difficult war.”
“This is the first time we are happy for our Palestinian brothers in this way,” said Abdul Majeed Abdullah Hassan, 70, who joined a rally of hundreds of people in the island kingdom of Bahrain. In the context of the Israeli occupation and blockade, the Hamas operation “warmed our hearts,” he said, calling his government’s deal to recognize Israel “shameful.”
Demonstrations in solidarity with Palestinians took place across the region, including in Bahrain, Morocco, Turkey, Yemen, Tunisia and Kuwait. In Lebanon, Hashem Safieddine, chairman of the executive council of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia, gave a fiery speech praising “the era of armed resistance.” And in the Egyptian coastal city of Alexandria, a police officer opened fire on Israeli tourists, killing two Israelis and an Egyptian.
The ripples spreading from Gaza underscore what many officials, scholars and citizens in the region have been saying for years: The Palestinian cause remains a deeply felt rallying cry that shapes the contours of the Middle East, and Israel’s position in it The region will remain unstable as long as the conflict with the Palestinians continues.
Diplomatic “normalization deals” between Israel and Arab governments — even with powerhouse Saudi Arabia, where American officials have recently pushed for normalization — are unlikely to change that, many regional analysts say.
“The current war is a stark reminder that lasting peace and prosperity in the region is only possible after a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” said Bader Al-Saif, a professor at Kuwait University. “No amount of hard work or acrobatics in dealing with Israel in other files can circumvent or erase this simple fact.”
Many Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, have long insisted that the price of recognizing Israel must be the establishment of a Palestinian state. But over the past decade, that calculus has shifted as authoritarian leaders weigh negative public opinion toward a relationship with Israel against the economic and security benefits it could offer — and what they might get from the United States in return.
The Biden administration is pushing for a deal that would establish ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia in exchange for significant concessions to the kingdom. Saudi officials demanded U.S. security assurances and support for a civilian nuclear program.
Last month, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia spoke publicly about the negotiations for the first time, saying in an interview with Fox News that the talks felt “real” for the first time. And in early October, the kingdom’s newspapers – which operate under limited press freedom – began publishing a flood of columns subtly or overtly supporting normalization.
The outbreak of violence on Saturday posed a major challenge to these efforts.
It also made comments by King Abdullah II of Jordan at a conference in New York last month seem prescient: “This belief by some in the region that you can parachute into Palestine, deal with the Arabs and fight your way back can, doesn’t work.” he said.
Indeed, some Arab officials and academics complain that their warnings about normalization deals that do not seriously address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have fallen on deaf ears.
“Watching events in Gaza feels like listening to Arabs tell the American president, ‘We told you so,'” Khalid al-Dakhil, a prominent Saudi academic, wrote on the social media website. Platform The Palestinian cause represents a trap for the region and threatens peace,” he said.
American officials say normalization is an important step toward a more integrated Middle East, with positive implications for regional security and American defense interests.
“There are really two paths to the region,” Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday. “There is the path to greater integration and greater stability, which includes, above all, ensuring that Israelis and Palestinians resolve their differences, or there is the path of terror that Hamas is taking, which does not improve the life of a single person has.”
He added: “We have said from day one that even as we work towards normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, this cannot be a substitute for resolving the differences between Israelis and Palestinians.”
But many in the region say normalization feels like a betrayal: a triumph of government and business elites over the will of their people.
The Palestinian cause “is something we grew up with as children and it became a compass to show what is right and just,” said Reem Maraj, 34, who attended a symposium in Bahrain on Saturday where the results of the Abraham Accords were discussed, three years later.
“If I had the choice, I would have erased this agreement from my country’s history,” she said.
Polls show that even in Arab countries that have relations with Israel, a majority of citizens view the Abraham Accords negatively.
“We fully support the right of the Palestinian people to liberate their land,” said Hassan Bennajeh, one of the organizers of the protests in Morocco. “We demand an end to normalization because it does not reflect the opinion of Moroccans.”
Qatar’s foreign ministry released a statement saying it held Israel “solely responsible for the ongoing escalation due to its persistent violations of the rights of the Palestinian people.”
The Iranian government, which has waged a shadow war with Israel for years and supports Hamas, welcomed the group’s attack on Israel on Saturday.
And Ahmed Abu Zeid, a spokesman for Egypt’s Foreign Ministry, said on local television last night that his country had been warning “for months about the danger of provocative practices” by Israel.
“The ongoing occupation and dehumanization of Palestinians has been evident for decades and has shaped the way Arabs view the conflict,” said Mr. Al-Saif, the Kuwaiti professor. “Palestine is the priority of the Arab Street.”
Still, Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati political scientist, predicted that a deal between Saudi Arabia, the United States and Israel was likely to be reached.
“I would bet my money on it,” he said. “If the Americans get the price right, I think the Saudis will put their national interest first.”
The violence in Israel “may derail things for a while, but it will not reverse the desire for normalization with Israel and de-escalation – a new Middle East,” he said.
On Sunday morning, another signal arrived in the major Saudi newspaper Asharq al-Awsat. In a column, Tariq Alhomayed, The newspaper’s former editor criticized Hamas and Palestinian factions for waging what he called a “useless war.”
He accused them of trying to sabotage the prospects for Saudi-Israeli normalization – and of serving their Iranian backers at the expense of the Palestinian people.
“Iran does not want real peace, especially Saudi-Israeli peace,” he wrote. “Because when it happens, it will be peace that will change the face of the region.”
Aida Alami contributed reports from Asilah, Morocco; Nazeeha Saeed from Berlin, Germany; Hwaida Saad from Beirut, Lebanon; and Ahmed Al Omran from Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.