Black Sea and Belarus: These are the two quadrants observed between the exchange of hard messages. Meanwhile, the invaders’ attacks in the Odessa region continued and Zelenskyy’s army began using cluster bombs on the army’s trenches.
The front of the Black Sea
The Kremlin has threatened to attack merchant ships that ensure trade/transportation with Ukraine. In fact, he considers them hostile and many are already stuck in the airports. Kiev responded Thursday with a similar move regarding “ships” heading for Russian targets. Moscow would have heeded those words, US sources say, and dropped more mines to create obstacles to free shipping, one of the options available to the Navy. Several scenarios are considered. In addition to the bombs – fixed to the ground or floating – Moscow can also entrust this task to surface units. The expert HI Sutton points out that the Ukrainians can choose a route close to the Romanian coast and in this way the enemy ships would be within range of action of the cruisers already involved in the sinking of the flagship “Moskva”.
But if the invaders don’t want to take any risks, they have a whole range of submarines, fast sentries, underwater attackers, helicopters to drop special forces on cargo, and anti-ship missiles at their disposal. Meanwhile, they intensively bombed the port infrastructure of Odessa, more than 60 aircraft carriers “shot” at targets with serious consequences. And they can achieve a lot, as they produce an average of 100 long-range missiles each month, more than Western estimates. The Ukrainians, who did not have a fleet, asymmetrically attacked the enemy with radio-controlled drones, punts and skyjets, only partially damaging attacks on the Sevastopol base and the attack on the Cherch bridge. Means sufficient to create trouble or instill fear in the enemy. The question that bothers them is whether they are willing to take action outside the specific arena, in other seas. A duel without borders, historically conducted by Israel and Iran in the Gulf of Oman.
The Belarusian Front
Lukashenko’s army has announced maneuvers on the Brest polygon, just 5 kilometers from the Polish border, with Wagner’s participation. According to a statement, the militiamen will take on the role of instructors. Since their arrival at the Asypovichy camp, signaled by satellite photos, the attention of Western intelligence and Warsaw intelligence has increased, leading to reinforcements being sent to the border. The contingent, the All Eyes on Wagner site revealed, would be led by Sergei Vladimirovich Chubko, 47, a former paratrooper known as “Sergei the Pioneer” with many years of experience.
Born in Ukraine, emigrated to Russia, served in an airborne division, later switched to the private security sector, joined the Cossack Society and was stationed abroad. His missions included several stays in Syria in the ranks of the organization founded by Prigozhin: rumor has it he again took part in the famous battle of 2018, when a detachment consisting of mercenaries and local troops suffered heavy losses in an attack on Turkey by a US -Base in the Syrian oil region of Deir ez Zour. Chubko also worked in positions of responsibility in Central Africa, another important country where the “boss”‘s “society” is primarily tasked with helping the government and protecting Russia’s economic interests. His career, his involvement first with the defense and then with the Wagner people, and the trust of the director pushed him even further.
The payment
The numbers circulating on social media and attributed to a high-ranking Wagner officer are interesting. The security company took part in the war campaign with 78,000 men, 49,000 of whom were former prisoners. Twenty thousand died in combat (since May) and 40,000 were wounded. There are 25,000 activists left (did they go to defense?), while about 10,000 would have relocated to Belarus. This information should be considered as a guide, but it helps to understand the impact of militia officers and the cost of the intervention.