Despite a difficult campaign, the CAQ has slowed its descent and could even win new seats tomorrow. However, with the PQ’s confirmed rise, three-sided battles are blurring the picture of the electoral map in both Montreal and Quebec.
Since François Legault began criss-crossing Quebec to meet voters, the CAQ has declined 4% in voting intent.
Voting intentions of the provinces
38% of Quebecers would choose Legault’s CAQ.
If there were state elections today, which party would you vote for?
From October 1, 2022
Other party: 1%
Conversely, once the campaign started, the PQ received 6% of the intentions.
The other three parties are even for the status quo: in the end, despite their efforts to seduce voters, their values have not changed.
However, the CAQ leader appears to have managed to stabilize its support this week with a slight 1% gain, according to the latest Léger poll ahead of tomorrow’s elections.
The same does not apply to QS, which loses two points in a few days.
Despite a similar result to 2018 (the party had won 37.4%), the CAQ was able to win more seats this year due to the split vote.
“What’s quite ironic is that the wrong campaign can lead to better results than last time,” said pollster Jean-Marc Léger.
“One on one wouldn’t have been the same,” he adds of the duels of the past.
The Léger polaroid also shows that this week’s controversial immigration remarks didn’t hurt CAQ troops.
“It didn’t hurt, but it spurred on the Quebec Liberal Party,” which won a point, Mr. Léger pointed out.
Furthermore, 25% of CAQ voters had already voted before the words of Mr Legault and Jean Boulet.
However, the presence of five parties this year is shattering the results in several constituencies where three-way battles are looming.
“In each of the regions there are two or three districts where things get tight,” observes Jean-Marc Léger. Fourteen seats are hotly contested in the Montreal region, five in Quebec and Chaudière-Appalaches, he estimates.
“Usually before election night begins, we know who’s going to win in those counties,” he said, highlighting the uncertainty hanging over this time.
development of voting intentions
From October 1, 2022
The rise of the PQ also adds some excitement to tomorrow night in Greater Quebec City. The PQ reaps 19% of voting intentions there, level with QS and the PCQ, which loses 4% support there.
This is largely thanks to the good performance of PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who ran the best campaign according to 31% of respondents.
Best Campaign
Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon comes first.
Which of the leaders has had the best campaign so far?
From October 1, 2022
QP
Paul Saint Pierre
Plamondon
QA
Gabriel
Nadeau Dubois
CAQ
Francis
Right
PCQ
Eric
Duhaime
QLP
Dominika
English
Don’t know / rejection: 20%
Tomorrow night we must also watch the fate of chefs Dominique Anglade, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and Éric Duhaime, whose victory in their own countries is uncertain.
“It’s going to be the element we’ll be watching all evening. Things are getting tight in the three counties,” explained Jean-Marc Léger.
► Anyone using data from this opinion poll should acknowledge that it is a casualThe newspaper-TVA QUB.
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