This Sunday, as we mark 100 days since the massive Hamas attack and subsequent Israeli bombings in Gaza, where the majority of the population is now displaced and hundreds of thousands struggle to eat even one meal a day The world's attention will be greater than almost 2,400 kilometers of the strip: Yemen. There, U.S. and U.K. forces killed at least five people on Friday when they launched 73 bombings against positions linked to the Houthi rebel militia. It was in response to the fiercest of 27 attacks it had launched since November against ships crossing the Bab el Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea in retaliation for Israel's invasion of Gaza. A day later, in the early hours of this Saturday, the US Army carried out another, smaller and uninjured attack near Sanaa airport, in which the rebels fired projectiles against merchant ships.
The two attacks have increased both the geographical area and the number of actors in the conflict and thus its explosive potential. The dynamic suits the Houthis as it fuels their discourse of challenge to the West and true defenders of the Palestinian cause in the Arab world, thanks to their strategic ability to alter a key global maritime trade route and force ships to sail around Africa. It also benefits Israel: its main ally, the United States, is taking direct action against a group backed with money and weapons by common enemy Tehran, and the focus of attention is shifting away from the Gaza Strip, where the bombing has eased in intensity . But they still kill at least a hundred people every day (135, this Saturday).
Houthi militia spokesman Nasruldeen Amer assured Al Jazeera television that the latest attack “will receive a decisive, strong and effective response.” Hans Grundberg, UN special envoy to Yemen, a country where 80% of the population needs humanitarian assistance, has expressed his “serious concern” about the “increasingly precarious regional context” and called for “to avoid those measures that “Deteriorate the situation in Yemen.” country, increase the threat to maritime trade routes or further inflame regional tensions at this critical time.”
The decision to attack Houthi targets in Yemen was not taken lightly in Washington. If there is one thing the Joe Biden administration does not want, it is to be drawn into a conflict in the Middle East with unpredictable consequences months before an election that will determine a new mandate. The green light was preceded by weeks of discussions between the president and his team, including during the vacation days that he spent with his family. This Saturday, Biden indicated that his country had sent a message to Iran about the actions of its allied rebel militia: “We sent it privately and we are confident that we are prepared.”
Washington insists it does not want open confrontation with the Houthis, let alone Iran. Neither does Tehran, explains Kirsten Fontenrose from the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative think tank. “He has no reason at this point to emphasize his connections to this conflict or to the Houthis,” says the expert. It is already achieving its strategic goals without the need for direct intervention: the United States' popularity in the world is declining and the drive to normalize relations between Israel and the new Arab countries has waned, he argues.
President of Yemen's Houthi Revolutionary Committee Mohammad Ali Al Houthi takes part in a protest against US and UK airstrikes this Friday in the capital Sana'a.Mohammed Hamoud (Getty Images)
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According to Ignacio Álvarez, it is Israel that has dragged its ally into the matter, after weeks of “attempting to open a new front” with its attacks on Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions in Syria and Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon. -Ossorio, Middle East specialist and professor of Arabic and Islamic Studies at the Complutense University of Madrid. The expert believes that the expansion of the conflict “benefits” the Jewish state as it brings Washington into conflict with one of the Iranian satellites and “shifts the attention of the international community,” which “gives the state a boost of oxygen to to continue his plans.” in Gaza.” “In a way, many countries are falling into a trap because this does not benefit Western interests, but Israeli interests,” says the expert via video conference.
The expansion of the battlefield also reinforces Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's narrative that the conflict in Gaza is a broader battle between “the forces of light and those of darkness,” in which Israel would be the spearhead of the former (represented by the West). ) and Iran would lead the latter. A growing number of Israeli commentators fear that Netanyahu – who is sinking in the polls and faces many questions about his policy towards Gaza in the years leading up to the attack – will seek to prolong the race around personal rather than national interests. According to a survey published this Friday by the newspaper Maariv, 63% of the population wants early elections. It would not be Netanyahu who would win, but Benny Gantz, who was in the opposition until he joined the concentration government formed specifically for the war in October.
The Houthi attacks began in November. Theoretically against merchant ships that belong to Israel or fly the Israeli flag or whose destination or country of origin is the country. In addition to misclassifying the ships into these categories, they also ended up harassing other ships, causing major shipping companies to avoid transit. In the last two months of 2023, the number of containers traveling this route daily fell by 66%, from 500,000 to 200,000, due to attacks on a sea that handles 30% of global container traffic. Ships now circumnavigate Africa via Cape New Hope, which has increased freight rates by 170%.
After weeks of increasing tension, Tuesday marked a turning point. The Yemeni movement launched its biggest attack. A day later, the UN Security Council passed a resolution ordering the Houthis to immediately stop their harassment. The White House's calls for the rebel group to stop its hostile actions fell on deaf ears. If he does not take decisive action, he risks losing credibility and deterrent power in the region. In the early hours of Friday, US and British forces attacked anti-aircraft surveillance systems, radars and arsenals of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles in various parts of Yemen under the control of the Houthi rebels. The price of a barrel of Brent crude rose by more than $2 but later fell by half as fears of a supply cut eased.
According to Gulf expert Ibrahim Jalal, the Houthis hoped to “gain even more popular support and exploit the undeniable pro-Palestinian and anti-foreign interventionist sentiments for their political purposes.”
Gerald M. Feierstein, a former US diplomat and Middle East expert at the think tank Middle East Institute, agrees. He sees the Houthis' “effort to enter the Gaza conflict” as an ambition to “strengthen their support base in the country and consolidate their movement more firmly in the so-called 'Axis of Resistance,' which includes Hezbollah and Hezbollah.” .” Hamas. He wins points even among his critics. This is all the more true since its enemy, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, has spoken more about the attacks on ships in the Red Sea than about the deaths in Gaza. On Friday, hundreds of thousands of people demonstrated in the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa to protest the bombings in Washington and London.
Last Wednesday, the Qatar-based Arab Center for Research and Political Studies published an analysis of public opinion in 16 Arab countries on the war in Gaza. The results show 69% solidarity with the Palestinians and support for Hamas. Another 23% support only their brethren in Gaza but oppose the Islamist movement that sparked the October attack that killed about 1,200 people. On the contrary, 94% criticize the position of the United States (which vetoes a ceasefire and finances and arms Israel) in the crisis. 82% even describe it as very bad. Despite regional rivalries and differences between Sunni and Shiite forces, Iran does not fare badly, with 37% approval and 48% disapproval.
The U.S. military intervention has raised alarm in other Middle Eastern countries that it could spill over into and that are home to pro-Iranian militias hostile to Israel. “We strongly condemn attempts to expand the war and reiterate that fiery adventures in this case can burn us all,” Iraqi President Abdellatif Rashid said. The foreign ministry of Lebanon – in whose south the Hezbollah militia is carrying out daily clashes with the Israeli army that under other circumstances would have led to open war – expressed in a statement its “extreme concern about the latest escalation in military operations at sea.” and the airstrikes on Yemeni territory” and his fear that these would “spread throughout the Middle East.”
There are also fears in the USA that the conflict could escalate. Democratic parliamentarian Elisa Slotkin, a former member of her country's secret service, drew attention to this on the social network. “We should be worried about regional escalation,” said the lawmaker who supported the military action on Thursday. “Iran is using groups like the Houthis to fight its battles, to be able to deny its involvement in the matter and to avoid direct confrontation with the United States or others… This must stop, and I hope so.” [Teherán] I got the message.”
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