(OTTAWA) The federal government is at a crossroads to replace its Navy’s aging submarines as cost considerations collide with pressures over the need for such ships — and allies pursue their own plans.
Posted at 6:14 p.m
Lee Berthiaume The Canadian Press
The Royal Canadian Navy announced in July 2021 that it had begun long-awaited action to replace its four Victoria-class submarines. She then assembled a task force to determine exactly what the Navy needed. It is estimated that it would take at least 15 years to design and build new submarines.
Still, there was then no formal commitment from the Liberal government to build a new submarine fleet after the Victoria-class ships were phased out in the mid-2030s — a commitment that, by the way, has almost not been caught up to two years later.
Defense Secretary Anita Anand’s spokesman on Tuesday described the submarines as “one of Canada’s most strategic assets for surveillance in Canadian and international waters, including the nearby Arctic.”
But he declined to say whether the government has committed to replacing the current fleet. Instead, he pointed out that the government was reviewing its existing defense policy, published in 2017, to determine the armies’ long-term needs.
Adam MacDonald, a former naval officer turned defense expert at Dalhousie University in Halifax, argues that the government is behind the times in having new submarines ready before the current ones are withdrawn.
“Most people who are really looking into this issue are basically saying there has to be a decision […] now or next year,” he says.
This lack of political direction comes as the United States, Britain and Australia have placed submarines at the heart of a new tripartite defense partnership known as “AUKUS” aimed at repelling Chinese ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region.
Senior ranks in the Canadian Armed Forces have repeatedly spoken of the importance of submarines, including last week in an interview with Chief of Defense Staff General Wayne Eyre when asked about the Canadian Army’s immediate needs.
But experts say there’s no guarantee Ottawa will commit to spending the money needed to replace the Victoria-class submarines, whose own costs and benefits have been hotly debated since they were launched in 1998 – before 25 years old – bought second hand in the UK.
“I don’t think it’s absolutely certain that we’ll continue to have submarine capabilities,” MacDonald said.
“Painted in the Corner”
In fact, the Liberal government faces financial pressures, including rising costs for other military purchases like plans to build a new fleet of ships, and calls for spending controls after a decade of deficits, among other things.
“The financial environment we’re in now is becoming increasingly precarious,” concedes University of Calgary defense analyst Rob Huebert, who fears Liberals will end up “sweeping the issue under the rug.”
“Even if we had a government committed to strict security we were painted in the area like this how could we get there now? »
It must be said that Canada’s current fleet has not helped the Navy. Bargain-bought by the UK for £750million in 1998, the submarines have since spent more time in dock than at sea on repairs and maintenance.
Ottawa has been forced to invest billions of dollars in its fleet for more than 20 years to fix a series of problems and incidents, including fires and failed welds. There were also several accidents during military operations and sea trials.
Military commanders – present and former – nonetheless insist that submarines are essential to the defense of Canada’s waterways and to the success of military operations abroad, particularly as China and Russia rush to build their own navies.
Retired Vice Admiral Mark Norman describes the oceans as a three-dimensional battlefield and explains that submarines are essential to knowing and controlling what’s happening beneath the waves.
“I used the analogy of a police force trying to patrol the streets of a city, only to find out there’s an entire system underground that allows illegal activity to flow freely without their knowledge,” said this former Navy officer. Commander.
The “AUKUS” partnership appears to lend weight to these arguments as the US takes the highly unusual step of sharing its nuclear submarine secrets with Australia – it will only be the second time.
‘The reality is you have an ongoing underwater arms race,’ Professor Huebert said. The Chinese, Japanese and Americans are building submarines at a rate not seen since just before World War II. »