The statements by both sides, after hours of negotiations in a lavish Bosphorus palace hosted by the government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, signaled a moment of rare optimism – if not a breakthrough – after weeks of stalled negotiations that have yielded nothing bloody and deepening conflict in Ukraine.
At the heart of Ukraine’s proposal was a promise that it would maintain Moscow’s desired military neutrality in exchange for a security regime for Ukraine guaranteed by international partners including the United States, Turkey and others. Ukrainian negotiators compared the offer to Article 5 of the NATO charter, which ensures the alliance’s collective defense.
The guarantors – including European countries, Canada and Israel – would provide Ukraine with military aid and weapons in the event of an attack, the negotiators said. Ukraine, in turn, would ensure that it remains “non-aligned and non-nuclear” while retaining the right to join the European Union.
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The Ukrainian proposal also offered a 15-year timeline for negotiations with Russia over the status of Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014.
Vladimir Medinsky, Russia’s chief negotiator, later described the talks to reporters as “substantial talks”. Mevlut Cavusoglu, Turkey’s foreign minister, said that “the most significant progress since the start of negotiations has been made today”.
United States reactions to the day’s events were mixed. Foreign Minister Antony Blinken expressed skepticism about the talks in Turkey, saying Moscow’s continued military offensive leaves little room for optimism. “There is what Russia says and what Russia does: we focus on the latter, and what Russia has done is brutalize Ukraine and its people,” Blinken said during a joint press conference with his Moroccan counterpart in Rabat, capital of Morocco.
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But the Pentagon top general, who oversees U.S. troops in Europe, said at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Tuesday that there was evidence of “changing dynamics” on the ground near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, which should be confirmed seems that some Russian forces in the region are withdrawing.
The change in Russian stance comes after Ukrainian forces went on the offensive in several parts of the country. Ukrainian officials said Monday they recaptured Irpin, a Kyiv suburb.
In Istanbul, the delegations from Ukraine and Russia arrived in convoys at Dolmabahce Palace around 9 a.m. local time. Addressing the delegates, Erdogan expressed hope that the negotiations would result in a ceasefire, saying: “The whole world is waiting for benevolent and good news from you.” Turkey, which for a variety of reasons, including economic ones close ties to both Moscow and Kyiv has pushed its way into the middle of negotiations to end the war.
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Ahead of Tuesday’s talks, Russia and Ukraine had tried to dampen hopes of a breakthrough after this month’s high-level negotiations in south-west Turkey and weeks of talks via video link failed to reach an agreement. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told local media on Monday that Kiev’s goal is – at best – a “sustainable” ceasefire. Meanwhile, his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov said Moscow should “stop giving in to Kyiv”.
Outside the palace, the international press corps huddled on a narrow sidewalk, blocked off by the boardroom, laptops on bushes and watched convoys of delegations roll in while awaiting news. In the hall, a sighting of Roman Abramovich, a Russian oligarch facing sanctions in Europe, added to the intrigue surrounding the proceedings: a day earlier, an associate of Abramovich said the oligarch suspected he was with one previous round of talks have been poisoned with members of the Ukrainian delegation.
The Kremlin denied any connection to the alleged incident. Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed it as “part of the West’s information sabotage” in a conference call with reporters on Tuesday. But in comments to a Ukrainian news channel, Kuleba advised everyone in the negotiations “not to eat or drink and if possible not to touch any surfaces”.
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In comments to reporters early Tuesday afternoon, Ukrainian delegates said any agreement with Moscow would be subject to a popular referendum. Some of the most sensitive issues, including the status of Russia-held Ukrainian regions, need to be worked out by the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, they said.
But Ukrainian negotiators on Tuesday hinted that the day’s events offered a possible way forward. Oleksandr Chaly, a member of the Ukrainian delegation, said talks with Russia would continue in the next two weeks. Consultations have already started with the guarantee countries that could be invited to send representatives to the forthcoming negotiations, he said.
After Ukrainian and Russian leaders reached a “final agreement,” they would hold a multilateral conference where an agreement would be signed, Chaly said. He said “senior officials from the guarantee countries” would attend the conference.
Stern reported from Mukachevo, Ukraine, and Lamothe from Washington. John Hudson in Rabat, Morocco and Annabelle Timsit and Zeynep Karatas in Istanbul contributed to this report.