The second year of the Congress, which begins this Thursday, July 20, will be difficult for President Gustavo Petro. His desire to pass the social reforms he promised during the election campaign as quickly as possible is met with a lack of majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives, in the regional elections in October and, above all, with the resurgence of the opposition led by the Democratic Center and former Vice President Germán Vargas Lleras, who proposed introducing a legal blockade against the government’s major initiatives. From now on, the debate on health care reform must begin in the House plenary, and pensions will reach the Senate plenary. The labor and education bills will be presented in the coming days and will be considered from the ground up in Congress.
Unlike in the first few months of the last term, when the administration managed to get full Congress to approve its tax reform, Total Peace Law and development plan, the legislative coalition is now weak and weary. At that point, the executive held the votes of 75 of the 106 senators and 125 of the 186 deputies in the chamber. Today it no longer has the support of the Conservative Party or the U Party, which transitioned from a ruling party to a declaration of independence a few months ago. This decision, sponsored by President Petro himself, had implications for the failure of labor reform and for the slow progress on health care and pension reforms in the latter part of the last legislature. The Conservatives have 15 Senators and 25 Representatives in the House of Representatives, and the Partido de la U has 11 Senators and 15 Representatives in the House of Representatives. Their votes will be critical to the adoption or failure of any reform.
Nor does the government guarantee full support for the Liberal Party, which in theory remains part of the coalition but is in practice divided and does not support many of the President’s key initiatives, such as healthcare reform. The same thing happened with the Greens. They hold important positions in Nariño’s House of Representatives, such as leading DAPRE, and have backed almost all of Petro’s reforms. But some senators and members of parliament have repeatedly expressed their desire to take the step towards independence. Congresswoman Cathy Juvinao, for example, said it in an interview with EL PAÍS some time ago, when the Armando Benedetti and Laura Sarabia scandal triggered a political crisis: “It’s not that we want to start immediately at the first problem, but just, after we have analyzed the problem.” “As the latest facts about possible funding seem opaque, the possibility of a Declaration of Independence should be discussed.” This idea was supported by congressmen such as Jota P. Hernández, the Green Party with the most votes, or Katherine Miranda , representative of Bogotá in the House of Representatives.
The government at the time seemed to have only guaranteed the full support of the Historic Compact faction, weakened by the departure of Senators Roy Barreras and Gustavo Bolívar from Congress; and the Comunes Party, made up of former fighters from the extinct FARC guerrillas. Faced with these negative calculations, the interior ministry, led by Luis Fernando Velasco, must reshuffle the majorities if it wants the reforms to progress through the legislative session and come into force next year. Senator Ariel Ávila summed it up well for El PAÍS: “This legislature will be very complicated due to the number of reforms and the level of disputes ahead. It is up to Minister Velasco to reassemble the coalition to pass the legislation.
During the month-long hiatus that Congressmen have had, talks between the government and the traditional parties have been quiet. However, Velasco had separate meetings with congressmen. It seems that he is no longer concerned with convincing party leaders, but is gradually gaining the votes of senators and deputies. This was explained in a recent interview with the newspaper El Espectador: “The first task is to regroup the strength of a group of congressmen from different parties who believe in our reforms.” You cannot reach a political agreement when the people don’t believe in this agreement because it’s not a transactional thing.” And when asked if he would meet with César Gaviria, leader of the Liberal Party, or with Efraín Cepeda of the Conservative Party, Velasco replied: “I would sit down with the leaders of the parties to discuss the essence of our political project. “But it’s up to the congressmen with whom I sit to make the laws.”
María José Pizarro, Senator for the Historic Compact and one of President Petro’s biggest allies in Congress, is more optimistic. Speaking to El PAÍS, he reiterated that the goal is to work with the “democrats that are in the other parties and who are committed to the reforms that Colombia voted for”. Pizarro insists that the most important goal is to reach agreements and a consensus that will allow the approval of a new model of health, pensions and work. The senator acknowledges that the major challenge facing the government now is “to work with the parties that have declared their independence”. It’s realistic, but it maintains the illusion: “I see that the situation is progressing more calmly than at the end of the last legislature, but we have to wait for the debates to start.”
Newsletter
Analysis of current affairs and the best stories from Colombia, every week in your mailbox
GET THIS
In addition to the lack of legislative majorities, the government will have to grapple with the mayor and governor elections in October in the first few months. Typically, in the months leading up to the vote, congressmen focus more on their region’s election results than on parliamentary initiatives. Most likely, many senators experience absenteeism and indiscipline. Senator Paloma Valencia of the opposition Centro Democrático party explained this week in journalist María Jimena Duzán’s A Fondo podcast: “In these first few months, Congress will be slow because everyone is watching the elections. Moreover, politicians from the traditional parties understood that approval of Petro’s reforms would have negative consequences for the election. Many are abstaining because of a possible penalty vote.”
Another factor the government must overcome in order to approve its reforms is that the Historic Compact will no longer chair the Senate or House of Representatives as it did during the first term. Instead of Petro’s allies Roy Barreras and Alexander López, Angélica Lozano of the Alianza Verde party is more likely to become President of the Senate. Senator Lozano has supported the government’s reforms, but has had deep disagreements with the president in recent years. David Racero, the president’s squire, will no longer be in the chamber, but Andrés Calle of the Liberal Party.
The last setback Petro’s reforms will suffer will be a strengthened opposition. Although they still lack majorities in the legislature, they have gained more popular support after the political crisis sparked by Armando Benedetti’s statements about possible illegal funding of Gustavo Petro’s presidential campaign. The president achieved a 61% opposition rate last month. If the opposition, led by the Centro Democrático and Cambio Radical parties, manages to extend this dissatisfaction to an anti-reform legislative bloc, as former Vice-President Germán Vargas recently suggested, the government will stand little chance of approving his campaign proposals . Petro currently has no majorities, but neither does the opposition. For this reason, the second legislative year will also be the one in which the balance sheet for one side or the other will consolidate.
Subscribe here to the EL PAÍS newsletter on Colombia and receive all the latest information about the country.
Subscribe to continue reading
Read without limits