The conflict in Ukraine It has entered a complex phase that is taking place on the battlefield and on the diplomatic table. The counteroffensive of Kyiv takes shape, shrouded in a dense fog War. The reports are fragmentary and difficult to verify. Although progress has been made on the Ukrainian side, there is no lack of evidence of substantial progress Russian resistance also confirmed by the Institute for the Study of War.
Meanwhile, the diplomatic game continues to be played to manage the war and understand Ukraine’s future. The African Peacekeeping Mission – with the arrival of delegations from Congo-Brazzaville, Egypt, Senegal, Uganda and Zambia “Led” by the President of South Africa Cyril Ramaphosa – started with a visit to Bucha and with the fear of a Russian attack. The group, involved in an initiative that appears highly unrealistic, has Russia as a second stop, where it will explore the Kremlin’s projects and the terms of possible negotiations. For this the speaker of Wladimir PutinDmitry Peskov said the Kremlin chief was ready to listen to the hypothetical agreements put forward by the African delegation, but not to sign them. In any case, the possibility seems more than unlikely since it would be difficult for the representatives of the six mission countries to reach a written agreement.
However, if this message reads rockets For Kiev, they come as a cold shiver over the African initiative, but Moscow’s openness to possible negotiations should not be underestimated. The Kremlin has a keen interest in showing itself to be proactive towards countries on a continent where it has had roots for some time. But the willingness to engage in dialogue, even if it is in the paradoxical narrative imposed by Moscow, is not only to be interpreted towards African leaders, but (if not primarily) also on a global scale.
The Secretary General of the Atlantic Alliance also spoke at the beginning of the mission, which Ramaphosa strongly desired and who is often accused of being too closely tied to Moscow, Jens Stoltenberg. At the conference held on the sidelines of the NATO defense ministers’ meeting, the Secretary-General said he welcomed the visit of African leaders to Kyiv and said it was “important” that there were “different efforts to find a solution”. A solution Stoltenberg emphasizes, however, “must be a just and lasting peace” because “if Ukrainians stopped fighting now, Ukraine would cease to exist as an independent nation.” But if the Russians stopped, we would have Peace.
The Secretary General’s train of thought is the one that unites the entire Euro-Atlantic bloc, which at this stage is not only concerned with managing the conflict and in particular military aid to Kiev, but is also concerned with planning a more or less related future for the to design UkraineAtlantic alliance. But on these two issues, the differences within the Alliance are not minimal and will probably mark not only the period between this summit and the NATO summit in Vilnius, but also the one that follows.
There is still military support for Kievand ranges from the training of soldiers and pilots to the deployment of ordnance and weapon systems with extensive aid packages. However, the question mark of the gods continues to hover over the table European and US plans on the front lines of the defense industry. It’s no secret that Brussels has long since embarked on the path of investing in the war sector. But when NATO calls for an increase in military spending – Stoltenberg himself spoke of the 2 percent hurdle as a basis and no longer as a goal – the approach of many EU partners is different from that of Washington. The USA demands that the money not only be passed on to companies on the old continent, but also to third countries, above all the USA. In Europe, on the other hand, especially under pressure from France, the focus is exclusively on continental investments to strengthen the EU’s strategic autonomy, which risks becoming an outdated issue after the war in Ukraine and the strengthening of NATO.
The debate will also be part of the next summit Vilnius, as military industrial capabilities are a key element of Western support for Ukraine. A support that is not only military, but also political, and which also concerns the big question that this summit implies: the integration of Kiev into the Atlantic bloc. Stoltenberg announced a “NATO-Ukraine Council” in which “issues of mutual interest” would be discussed. Some allies would prefer a partnership without membership. Others, on the other hand, are calling for specific times for Ukraine’s entry into the blockade. A choice reminiscent of the last warning of Henry Kissingerwhat it is necessary for Kiev joins NATO “where it cannot make national decisions about territorial claims”.