Stanislaus Saryn He is State Secretary at the Presidium of the Council of Ministers, Deputy Minister and Head of the Secret Services of the Poland. He knows it well Russia and most importantly what is happening behind the walls of the Kremlin. That’s his idea Putin, is still firmly in power, contrary to the hopes of some Western observers. And about the war he says: “It could last for years.”
Deputy Minister, Poland is always well informed about what is happening in Russia. What is happening behind the walls of the Kremlin these weeks? Is Putin still standing or is there a home front against him?
“As for the threats from the east, Poland is closely monitoring the development of the situation. This is not only due to an assessment of the current scenario, but also to geographical and historical circumstances. Our experience and analyzes clearly show that for many years Russia has been the main threat to lasting peace and stability in our part of the world. We have been witnessing a new rise of Russian imperialism for at least a few years. Russia’s policy is based on this, which connects the power elite with the Kremlin. At the moment there are no clear cracks in the Kremlin and emerging reports of tension are hardly credible. Our data shows that the Kremlin is unanimous about imperial aspirations, and any criticism is not about the strategy itself, but about the means to achieve the goals set.”
Who are the men who would like to take the Tsar’s place?
“Of course, a coup at the top of the government cannot be ruled out – such changes happen from time to time. In the case of tyrannies, they are bloody and brutal. But to this day there is no real prospect of change in the Kremlin. Even if it ever happens, we must remember one thing: Russia is a regime based on post-Soviet intelligence and power mechanisms. Moving the pieces on the political chessboard at the dictates of the services will not change the imperial course of Russian politics.
Do you think the rumors about Putin’s alleged illness are real or just a hope for the West?
«Putin’s health problems have been rumored for years. Some of this news might be true, if only because of its age. However, this is not an argument for looking to the future with naive optimism and hoping for changes in Russia. Suffice it to recall the figure of Dmitry Medvedev: when he was president, he was seen in the West as the liberal face of Russia and as a beacon of hope for the “democratization of Russia”. Today he is one of the most radical supporters of Russia’s aggressive and imperial policies. In the Kremlin, personalities matter less than systemic and strategic assumptions. And these remain and remain the same: hostile to the West».
What are Russia’s next steps in the war in Ukraine? what can happen now
“Massive rocket attacks or the destruction of critical infrastructure make it clear that Russia wants to continue the war and is not willing to retreat. Russia’s primary and long-term goal remains either the conquest of Ukraine or its total destruction. If Russia decides to freeze the conflict, it will only be a strategic pause. This war started back in 2014 and has been frozen by Russia for 8 years. Russia resumed operations in February 2022, believing that favorable conditions for further hostilities had emerged. If she’s allowed to, she might want to repeat that tactic.”
Putin uses “unarmed missiles for nuclear warheads” as bait. The British Defense Report
Does the West still have enough weapons at this point to send them to Ukraine?
“The West must find ways to continue supporting Ukraine as this is the only hope of stopping Russia. Failing that, there are bound to be other countries that could fall victim to Russian aggression. We are aware – and probably Russia is too – that cutting off supplies to Ukraine would mark a turning point in this war and result in Ukraine’s quick defeat. And then the situation for the whole of Europe will become very serious».
How long will this war last? Is Peace Still Possible?
“The condition for a lasting peace is the defeat of Russia and the reconquest of the occupied territories. However, we now see that Russia does not want to withdraw from the war and therefore a quick peace under the current conditions seems unlikely. We should look at the war in Ukraine from a broad perspective and be prepared that the conflict – with possible strategic pauses – could last for years.”
Is Poland a possible target for Russia?
“We have no indication that Russia is preparing a military attack on Poland. In our view, it is very unlikely that Russia will decide to attack NATO territory. He is aware of the consequences. However, due to our position on the Alliance’s eastern flank and Poland’s role in supporting Ukraine, we are a constant target of Russian hybrid activities such as cyberspace attacks and disinformation operations. Their goal is to destabilize the situation and, in the long term, cut Western aid to Ukraine, which Russia is trying to achieve at all costs.
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