Tesla (TSLA) is expected to report third-quarter delivery numbers next week, and expectations are very high given what is likely to be a rare quarter without growth.
In recent years, Tesla has set high expectations for quarterly deliveries by managing to beat quarterly records almost every time.
During the last earnings call, CEO Elon Musk warned that the third quarter of 2023 could look different. He said production would likely decline due to factory closures for upgrades.
If production stops, deliveries often stop as well.
In the last quarter, Tesla produced 479,700 vehicles and delivered 466,140 of them.
Now, with delivery results expected next week, many analysts are sticking to their expectations and it’s pretty much all off.
Here are some estimates from Wall Street analysts and independent researchers:
- Baird: 493,200 deliveries
- Deutsche Bank: 440,000 deliveries
- RBC Capital Markets: 462,000 deliveries
- Troy Teslike: 442,000 deliveries
Wall Street’s overall consensus is an optimistic 462,000 deliveries, down only slightly from last quarter.
Electrek’s take
I think Wall Street is setting Tesla up for a crash with the delivery announcement. Giga Shanghai, Tesla’s most productive factory, was forced to close.
The same goes for Gigafactory Texas, which apparently produced very little production in the quarter. It has never contributed significantly to Tesla’s deliveries, but will still have an impact.
I think a drop of 20,000 deliveries, maybe even 30,000 deliveries would make more sense.
What do you think? Let us know in the comments section below.
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